Election of the Day: Denmark
By 
Many (too many for my taste) of the elections these days are stories about Trump and America at the world, and tomorrow’s snap election in Denmark is certainly one of them. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recently found herself in the unusual-for-Danish-politicians position of having to defend the territorial integrity of the realm. She handled it reasonably well, politely but forcefully insisting that Greenland was not for sale or otherwise available. Trump eventually seemed to move beyond his Greenland obsession and moved on to other foreign policy priorities. She sought to take advantage of this boost in her approval rating by calling an early election. Now, though, she faces the prospect of a weaker position following Tuesday’s election. She is generally regarded as unlikely to lose her position as prime minister, but faces the prospect of a weaker, more divided coalition, as the electorate has moved away from admiring her strength in the face of the American menace, and back to affordability issues, which have become more acute under her leadership. (Those “other foreign policy priorities” for the Trump administration aren’t helping her much on this front, as the global rise in fuel prices from Mr. Trump’s excellent adventure has hit Denmark; it turns out the Trump administration has a variety of policy levers available to them when it comes to inflicting pain on Denmark.)
Nuts and bolts: The Danish Folketing is elected in what is effectively a nationwide PR system. (135 seats for 10 multimember PR districts, and 40 nationwide “leveling seats” to ensure support for parties nationally matches the overall composition of the body. There is a 2% threshold for leveling seats. In addition to the 175 Danish seats, there are four non-Danish seats–two representatives are elected separately from Greenland and two from the Faroe Islands. Danish politics is dominated by 2 ‘blocs’, blue (right) and red (left/center-left). Frederikson leads the Social Democrats, which is the largest party in the red bloc. Polling suggests a solid high-single digit lead for the red bloc over the blue bloc, but with perhaps a less dominant leadership role for Frederiksen’s Social Democrats in the lead.
Frederiksen’s term in office so far has been one of the stronger data points out there for the proposition that swinging hard to the right on immigration is a promising tactic for parties on the left to retain power in these times we live in. From the election preview in the NYT:
Ms. Frederiksen has molded herself into an exemplar of Europe’s new left. Historically, her party has been a workers’ party. But in recent years it has shifted to the right on immigration — Denmark has imposed some of the strictest asylum rules in Europe. She’s also a serious hawk in foreign policy, thrusting Denmark front and center into Europe’s efforts to back Ukraine against the encroachments of an increasingly acquisitive Russia.
Recently, though, Ms. Frederiksen seems to be tacking left again, and embracing a potential wealth tax. Critics wonder if she’s doing this purely to cozy up to the left-wing parties that are polling well and whose votes she may need to build a coalition. The wealth tax, which many Danes call “the jealousy tax,” has upset some of her moderate supporters and the titans of Danish industry, like the heads of Maersk shipping and Lego.
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The other night, Ms. Frederiksen returned to Aalborg for a campaign event at a high school, at home and casual in jeans, a green sweater and pointy gold shoes. She strode onstage, taking a seat between a journalist and a former prime minister. She was the only woman onstage, a familiar position.
She spoke about a potential social media ban for children and the perils of too much screen time. She discussed a hot local issue: nitrates from fertilizer leaching into the water supply.
She lamented the ideological challenges of leading a hydra-headed coalition and how the compromises necessary to keep the government together inevitably watered down some of her party’s more forceful policies.
But it was when the subject turned to geopolitics that her eyes really lit up.
“This is the 10th election campaign I’ve been part of,” she told the audience. “In all those years, I have never experienced global affairs and foreign policy filling so many of my conversations with Danes.”
See also an interesting op-ed from a Danish newspaper editor on the election.