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Partisan Dorks or Trash Methodology?

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So I very much get why people in the political game professionally want to shoot themselves over how polls are seen, in the sense that for most people, the quality of a poll is entirely dependent upon their personal political preferences. This has nothing to do with the pretty broken state of polling, which I’ve written about from time to time, though taken as a big collective, they have some limited value. For example, there’s no way to explain away the fact that Joe Biden was running 7-15 points behind every single swing state Senate Democrat. Polls are often wrong, but they aren’t wrong in that way, despite the desperate attempt of Biden partisans in LGM comments to unskew the polls!!!! in a way that would make Republicans in 2012 blush. Moreover, if someone is down in every single poll or almost, a la Jon Tester, they are losing. But single polls, sure, not that valuable in themselves. So this is why we have poll aggregators.

This leads us to Nate Silver, who suffers the biggest problem a public person can face, which is genuinely believing they are smarter than everyone else. His bragging that he could wins tons of money off the partisans gambling and such is just embarrassing. Moreso though is this admission about his own polling methodology:

Whoa, whoa, whoa. So a) Silver doesn’t know what is going on with his own system and b) he hasn’t bothered updating any of this since 2014 and is just letting it ride?????

Even Marxists update their methodology every now and then. This is what happens when you think you are the smartest person in the world. Arrogance and comeuppance.

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