Taking Biden Seriously

This is, at least based on the preferences of most of the people on this here website hosts included, not good:

States (note: **numbers are adjusted for national trends**)

IA: Buttigieg 23.7—Sanders 19.0—Biden 17.1—Warren 14.4
NH: Sanders 17.7—Biden 16.6—Warren 15.9—Buttigieg 15.7
NV: Biden 27.0—Sanders 19.9—Warren 16.9—Buttigieg 8.8
SC: Biden 37.1—Sanders 13.3—Warren 10.6—Buttigieg 6.6— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 26, 2019

To be blunt, over the last month 1)Warren’s support has eroded substantially and 2)it has gone not to Bernie but mostly to Biden and Buttigieg. No one thing can explain it, but it seems that in large measure the two centrist bees attacking her from the right on healthcare seems to have been effective:

It does appear that most of Warren's erosion on this question is from moderates. https://t.co/yncKPdgv05— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 26, 2019

What’s frustrating about this is that the endless discussions of the fine details of healthcare policy that seems to have damaged the leftmost candidates is that it’s all moot — there’s zero chance Biden’s plan could get 50 votes in the Senate during the next administration, let alone M4A.

None of this is to say that Biden will win — his lead is far from commanding and he has unusual liabilities. And I remain skeptical that Buttigieg will be be able to be seriously competitive past Iowa. But I do think that Warren needs to stop trying to get into an escalating leftier-than-thou contest with Sanders, and they both need to focus on their most popular policies and go after Biden where he’s most vulnerable.