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2000 v. 2016

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There’s been some interesting discussion about Paul’s comparison between the 2000 and 2016 election thefts. I already responded to one point in comments, but rather than reply to them all I thought I’d collect some thoughts here:

  • Whether the actions of the Supreme Court 5 in 2000 are worse than Comey’s is an interesting question. Certainly, there is no question that Bush v. Gore was every bit as partisan and lawless as Comey’s letter. I also agree with a commenter that an ex post intervention is many respect is worse than an ex ante one. While Comey’s letter was always going to be damaging to Clinton, had it generated, say, one day of negative coverage from Clinton rather than days of Kardashian-sisters-playing-nude-volleyball-on-Mars saturation coverage it probably wouldn’t have tipped the election, and there are any of other factors that make the outcome contingent. As soon as Bush v. Gore was handed down, Bush was becoming president.
  • On the other hand, one crucial distinction between the cases is that Bush was going to become president in 2000 no matter what the Supreme Court did. If the recount had come out in favor of Gore (and while any comprehensive, uniform recount would have resulted in Gore winning, whether the specific recount ordered by the Florida courts would have resulted in Gore winning Florida is much less clear), the Florida legislature would have sent a pro-Bush set of electors and Congress would have declared those electors the legitimate representatives of Florida. This is not to say that the Supreme Court’s intervention was unimportant — the Republicans should have had to have stolen the election more openly. That the Court legitimated Bush is important and indefensible. But Comey’s actions almost certainly actually swung the election; the Court merely legitimated what was going to happen no matter what. And, as Paul points out, the 2000 election was close to a statistical tie whereas without the Comey intervention Clinton wins the popular vote by ~4 points and is well north of 300 electoral votes.
  • One point where I do respectfully disagree with Paul is that I think he’s minimizing the importance of the ex ante vote suppression by Jeb Bush in 2000. It’s impossible to know precisely how many votes this cost Gore, but given how narrow the margins were it was probably decisive. It’s important to note here that Bush’s theft of the election was critically dependent on being ahead in the initial Florida count. Not only did this generate a media narrative that Gore was a Sore Loser for exercising his right to have a recount, but all of Bush’s legal machinations were dependent on stopping vote counting from happening, which doesn’t work coming from behind. Like Jill Stein and Wednesday morning quarterbacking about resource allocation, arguments that Republican vote suppression — while worthy of criticism no matter what — flipped the election in 2016 founder in Pennsylvania. But in 2000, racist vote suppression almost certainly put a Republican in the White House.
  • I also note the irony that the media’s favorite Respectable Conservative Alternative to Trump in the Republican primaries was the Comey of 2000. While I would like to think that Comey will be permanently reviled as it becomes ever more clear what a catastrophe Trump is, I suspect his reputation as a Nonpartisan Straight-Shooter of Integritude will somehow survive in the Beltway.
  • I’m still amazed by the number of people on the left for who it’s very important that Comey get a pass. Certainly people on the left have invoked bullshit about election results having One True Cause to exonerate Nader — doncha know, if Gore had only used the ultimate tactical nuclear bomb of using a popular incumbent more on the stump, losing was unpossible! Still holds up! — but I don’t recall anyone bringing up Gore’s allegedly faulty campaign tactics as a shield for Scalia or Jeb Bush or Katherine Harris.
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