My latest at WPR expresses skepticism regarding the practical import of a realist/neocon divide in the GOP:
However, it is probably too soon to expect the return of a “realist” foreign policy establishment in the GOP. As a result, the candidate that ultimately emerges victorious from the Republican primary will likely be broadly comfortable, if not enthusiastic, about the neoconservative approach to foreign relations. He or she will hedge sufficiently to fend off a realist challenge in the primaries, but will maintain connections with neoconservatives in the policy and journalistic community. Even if subsequently elected to the White House, however, no Republican is likely to undertake the extremely difficult project of reorienting the intellectual superstructure of the GOP foreign policy establishment in a noninterventionist direction. Much ink will flow, but in the short term, the foreign policy preferences of the GOP are unlikely to change in a major way.