The Playoffs

Yankees v. Angels The Angels actually had a better run differential than the Yankees, although once you adjust for the competition the Yanks are a little better. I don’t care for the Angels’ free swinging -offense, which looks even weaker next to the Yanks’ classic on-base-and-power machine. And yet, I don’t think it’s a fluke that the Angels have fared well against them; the matchup is very favorable, as the Angels’ high-contact offense is well-position to take advantage of the Yankees’ terrible defense. In particular, the one LF-and-and-two-DHs outfield is going to be a serious problem against the Angels. My co-blogger with a Prospectus subscription tells me that Jeter is having is first good statistical defensive year, but I’m dubious; as I understand them, the BP adjustments can’t fully account for the fact that somebody has to make outs on a bad defensive team, his ZR is below-average for major league SS (although barely this time), and in September to my eye he was covering about as much ground as Kate Moss’ bikini. Rodriguez is good and Cano can turn the deuce, and this exhausts the Yankees’ defensive assets. Johnson will beat the Angels, but I think that the gutty but low-strikeout Chacon and Wang are going to run into trouble, and who knows what to expect out of Mussina. The Angels rotation is underrated, and while Rivera gets the edge as closer the Angels’ bullpen depth is vastly better. Home field helps too; I think the Angels will squeak it out. WINNER: Angels IF YOU HAD TO BET: Angels +120

White Sox v. Red Sox I don’t have any special insight here; like most people, I don’t think the White Sox are a legitimate 99-win team, and I think the the 4-game difference in “3rd order” wins probably underestimates the gap between the teams. The White Sox are a model of teams who don’t do well in the post-season: dubious on-base skills, aggressive baserunning, not enough power. Although I don’t trust the White Sox’ low-K rotation against a good offense, admittedly the ChiSox have an edge in starting pitching. But I don’t think their offense can exploit the Red Sox’ somewhat shaky rotation. (The strange thing is that the Red Sox losing the division worked out well in the end; I think they get the much easier series.) WINNER: RED SOX IYHTB: Red Sox -150

Padres v. Cardinals Yeah, anything happen in a short series. And while they’re far better I actually have some of the doubts about the Cardinals that I do about the White Sox; I wouldn’t trust the back end of their rotation against a quality offense, and while Carpenter is legit LaRussa was crazy to have him throw 240 innings. Peavy is a legitimate ace. But sill, the Padres are by far the worst team ever in the post season, somehow getting outscored by 40 runs in a brutal division. The Cards remain the class of the league. The Padres winning would be the biggest upset in baseball since the ’90 World Series; about the only hope the Padres fan can have is who was managing the team on the receiving end of that upset. WINNER: Cardinals IYHTB: Padres +330

Braves v. Astros Ugh; here’s a series I didn’t want to see again. As I have argued before, I think that Cox’s relatively poor outcomes in the playoffs are as much luck as anything else. The problem is that this team just isn’t that good; I think the Phillies and Mets would both have a better shot at this point of the year. The Braves’ offense is better, but not enough; in a short series the Astros’ rotation is a huge advantage, especially with Smoltz in dubious health, and the Braves don’t have a Lidge in the bullpen. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Braves win this year, but I don’t see it. WINNER: Astros IYHTB: Astros -120

..admittedly, I probably should have placed more emphasis on the fact that Matt Clement hasn’t gotten anyone out in 2 months…