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The Allawi Hedge


First cold of the season has hit. Has left me grumpy, irritable, and resentful of the healthy. Not that anyone notices.

The incentives for Allawi in turning on the Bush administration seem clear. Blaming the 49 dead soldiers on the United States is a no-brainer; Allawi is the other potential candidate for responsibility, and hitting the US gives him some cred with voters. The real tip-off, however, is the explosives story. Allawi didn’t need to put that out when he did; now is as good of a time as two weeks from now. It also seems like it’s going to keep getting play, as it goes right to the heart of the Bush administration ineptitude. They’ve already started blaming the generals, which can’t ever be a good thing.

So, Allawi notices that Kerry may win, and his little speech of a month ago won’t play well with a Kerry Whitehouse. Wisely, he decides to hedge, because he knows that the support of the US is critical for his own survival. Who does he really support? Now, that’s a good question. Since I think a Kerry administration will be a) more competent, and b) more interested in producing basic stability in Iraq, I would be pushing for Kerry if I were him. But that’s just me, and I’m sure he has a better sense of who his sugar-daddy is.

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