Whaaa?

I think Mickey Kaus might actually be on to something.

Can the terrorists both want Bush defeated and want Bush reelected? Sure, if they’re different groups of terrorists. The Zarqawi terrorist faction in Iraq presumably would like Bush replaced, since Bush is less likely than Kerry to withdraw from Iraq–or, more precisely, if U.S. voters are sick of Iraqi violence and want to withdraw they’re more likely to vote for Kerry than Bush, so Bush’s defeat would be entailed in Zarqawi’s plan. Meanwhile, the Al Qaeda organization might place less emphasis on Iraq and more emphasis on a wider war against the West, in which Bush’s tendency to lump all terrorists together as enemies in a titanic struggle over values could be just what Bin Laden thinks he wants. … Implications: a) If, as has been speculated, Zarqawi is split from Osama Bin Laden–“because he disagrees with him on something,” as Donald Rumsfeld put it last week–maybe this is the something they disagree on. They can’t decide whom to support in the 2004 campaign! b) The prospect ahead of us might not be just competing ad campaigns for the U.S. presidency but competing terror campaigns for the U.S. presidency, with anti-Bush bombs going off in Baghdad and pro-Bush bombs going off in New York..

In spite of all the accusations of Bush-hatred, few on the left have gone very far in claiming that Al Qaeda wants Bush to win. I think it’s a plausible scenario, but I don’t have any idea what Osama Bin Laden thinks, so I’m reluctant to give judgement. Wingnuts have no such reservations, although it’s remarkable that they can figure out all of Osama’s plans and desires ahead of time, except for those involving terrorist attacks or where he’s going to sleep that night. . .

Anyway, it’s not ridiculous to suggest that terrorists might want to have an impact on the US election. Hezbollah successfully elected Benjamin Netanyahu, after all, in an effort to end the peace process. Since terrorists don’t all work for the same goals, it’s also plausible to think that different groups may want a different impact. Now, I’m not convinced that Kerry is more likely to withdraw troops than Bush, but Iraqi insurgents might underestimate the perfidy of the Bush administration, and favor Kerry. Bin Laden, like any good revolutionary, presumably wants to heighten the contradictions, and Bush is good at nothing so much as heightening contradictions.