Laughing at the Expense of the Laffer Curve
This set of answers is remarkably revealing of the quality of intellectual firepower in support of supply side economics…
This set of answers is remarkably revealing of the quality of intellectual firepower in support of supply side economics…
On March 17, 2007, I was invited to join Journolist. I reprint the full e-mail invitation below, without permission, because that’s just the way I roll:
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been creating a list serv to unite the journalist, wonk, public academic, and more cerebral bloggers communities. It’s actually going pretty well, and I’d love for you guys to be a part of it. Joining can be done below — and I think you guys would enjoy it.
I refused to join, out of a desire not to be bored firm, principled conviction that participating on such a list would be wrong for some reason. I also determined that, like Kieran Healy, I was far too sexually attractive to be a member of the list. Indeed, I was more than a bit insulted by the invite, but fortunately Ezra later acknowledged my “rugged good looks,” so offense forgiven.
Nevertheless, it has come to my attention that the comments and e-mails of JournoList members are worth good money. In the spirit of commerce, I am willing to offer, unedited*, the complete archive of my e-mail contact with any and all JournoList members. Each revelation is guaranteed to be more shocking than the last.** What follows is only a taste of what’s available (names have been changed to protect the innocent):
Contempt for the hardworking common American, and conspiracy to take his money:
Matt D: What was the name again of the poker room where rubes were waiting for me to take their money?
Me: Imperial Palace.
Me: http://www.imperialpalace.com/casinos/imperial-palace/hotel-casino/property-home.shtml
Matt D: Thx
Technological Collaboration in the Service of (almost certainly fraudulent) TEH LIBERAL blogging:
D. Muss: hey
me: Yo!
D. Muss: question:
D. Muss: I know i’m a paid blogger and shit, but I forget how to do a screen catpure
D. Muss: capture
D. Muss: do you know?
me: Ja; hit the “print screen” button.
me: That gives you an image file, which you can then copy into any program that you like.
Literally hundreds of conversations just as devastating as these, with literally a handful of Journolist members, can be yours! Bidding starts at $100000.
*Archive may be heavily edited.
**Guarantee void in all known legal jurisdictions.
More than a few people have noted that the foreign policy vision of the Republican Party appears to have moved to the far right of the Reagan administration; thus, when the Heritage Foundation ghost writes an op-ed for Mitt Romney, the resulting cesspool is a mishmash of opinions that would have been on the far right fringe of Reagan’s national security apparatus. As the oft-cited Baron YoungSmith has argued:
It means, first and foremost, that the responsible Republican foreign policy establishment is not coming back. Mandarins like George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, and James Baker, who have all testified or written on behalf of the START treaty—calling it an integral, uncontroversial way of repairing the bipartisan arms-control legacy that sustained American foreign policy all the way up until the George W. Bush administration—are going to be dead soon (or they’ve drifted into the service of Democrats). The people who will take their place will be from a generation of superhawks, like John Bolton, Liz Cheney, and Robert Joseph, who are virulently opposed to the practice of negotiated arms control. Mitt Romney, though a moderate from Michigan, is not going to be the second coming of Gerald Ford.
I made a similar argument in a Right Web article a few weeks ago:
Many of the moderate Republicans who favored arms control and engagement with the Soviet Union are still around, but they have minimal influence on the institutional right. Henry Kissinger, James Baker, Brent Scowcroft, Colin Powell, and George Schultz have all played key roles in developing foreign policy for multiple Republican administrations. However, none have developed an extensive base within the institutional right wing, the constellation of independent organizations and foundations (including the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute) that have emerged as key players in internal Republican Party debates. This faction has, by and large, concluded that the greatest threat posed by Russian nuclear weapons is loss, theft, or accidental launch, rather than pre-emptive attack.
In contrast, the signatories to the Washington Times op-ed mentioned above all represent organizations that are part of the institutional machinery of movement conservatism.[11]
In addition, prominent political figures have been able to promote the studies and reports produced by these groups, including for instance Sarah Palin, who despite her clear lack of knowledge on the subject tried to use that hardline rhetoric in attacking Obama’s arms control initiatives.
The influence of the institutional right wing is even more pronounced on foreign policy than domestic policy because so many major political actors (both Democrat and Republican) simply don’t care about foreign policy. I suspect that Mitt Romney actually has opinions about major issues of US domestic policy, and these opinions may even be informed by some subject area knowledge. In foreign policy this is not the case, and Heritage Foundation ideologues who would have been laughed out of the Reagan administration find themselves in command of the foreign policy statements of several major GOP presidential aspirants.
Youngsmith is right to note that the GOP moderates aren’t coming back, but it’s worth additional investigation to determine why they were so helpless in the face of the dire fanatics when it came to developing an institutional base. I suspect that at least part of the answer is personality based; Baker and Scowcroft, for example, seem to have eschewed institution building in favor of cultivating an elite consensus. For whatever reason, this strategy has failed utterly to ster the last ten years of foreign policy production in the Republican Party.
This is the fifth installment of an eight part series on the Patterson School’s Summer Reading List.
In the past, the Patterson School has included some truly terrible books on its Summer Reading List. The most notably awful, to my recollection, was Parag Khanna’s Second World, a manifestly reprehensible pile of garbage that should have embarrassed its publisher. I suspect, however, that Walter Laqueuer’s The Last Days of Europe is even worse.
As a scholar, Laqueur has always been a bit all over the place. He wrote several books about central Europe in the 20th century, a volume about fascism, did some work on the Holocaust, and more recently has focused on terrorism and Middle Eastern politics. Unfortunately, in The Last Days of Europe he expresses no interest in any historical method beyond the cranky, unmeasured rant. Despite making wide ranging empirical claims (and basing his policy recommendations on those claims) he cites no actual evidence, and gives readers no clue as to where he mines the “data” that he purports to provide. Footnotes don’t necessarily indicate serious scholarship (see Ann Coulter), but their absence contra-indicates it.
Laqueur’s story is very simple. Europe, or at least the part of Europe inhabited by well-behaved white folks, is in terminal decline. In short order it will effectively be replaced by uncouth, poorly educated, thuggish Middle Easterners. These Middle Easterners hate the West for some reason with a burning hatred than knows no hateful hatey limits, except for those Middle Easterners who don’t hate the West and want to continue living there. Moreover, because Polite White People are unwilling to breed in sufficient numbers, these uncouthy surly “Muslims” (he regularly argues that European Muslims actually know nothing of their faith) will soon sap and impurify Europe’s bodily fluids. Moreover, the EU sucks, and European is both militarily weak and anti-American.
To be excruciatingly fair, Laqueur’s alarm about European demographics is in the neighborhood of elements of truth (for a much more sensible take, see here), and his contention that the EU is fatally disconnected from popular European preferences could be made to make sense by a much better author. The rest is a waste; it says far more about Laqueur’s particular prejudices, and the paranoia of the contemporary American right, than about Europe.
A sampling:
In Germany the sharp decline began with the Genera-tion of 1968 and the Frankfurt School, with its Critical Theory, which belittled the function of the family from both a social and an economic point of view. But the family declined also in other societies in which the year 1968 was not an important turning point.
Really? So the claim that the sharp demographic decline began with the Frankfurt School and its Critical Theory is demonstrably empirically false?
We also get more than a dose of what really irritates Walter Laqueur; surly, dark-skinned teenagers:
Muslim youth culture varies to a certain extent from country to country. Common to them is the street sports gear (hooded sweatshirts, sneakers, etc.) and the machismo; their body language expresses aggression. They want respect, though it is not clear how they think such respect is earned; perhaps it is based on the belief that “this street (quarter) is ours.” In France and the United Kingdom hip-hop culture plays a central role; the texts of their songs express strong violence, often sadism.
We learn that these thugs commit lots of crimes, and that European cities are now as unsafe as American (except for the murder rate, of course, which remains more than triple that of any country that Laqueur discusses).
Unfortunately, he feels the need to make comparisons between European muslims and African-Americans:
Socioeconomic factors have been blamed, and in this respect there have been interesting similarities to young black males in the United States: If only more jobs would be offered, it is often maintained, everything would change for the better. But many studies have shown that when such jobs were offered (as in the Clinton years in the United States), the takers were predominantly immigrants from Latin America and the Far East.
It’s hard to know where to start with this. It would have been nice if Laqueur had actually cited a study, rather than say “studies have shown,” but that’s really not the point; African-American unemployment at the beginning of the Clinton administration was 14.1%, and at the end was 7.3%. When the jobs were “offered” (and it’s unclear how exactly he thinks Clinton produced jobs), many of the takers appear to have been African-American. Either Laqueur doesn’t know this and doesn’t care, or he’s simply lying; I report, you decide.
This statement, and statements like it, are depressingly common in the book:
It was not just a case of rejecting France and its values but of hating French society and its institutions, as spokesman of the young generation repeatedly declared.
Really? How were these spokesman selected by the young generation? Were they representative? Were there other “spokesman” who made counter-claims? Maybe, maybe, and maybe, but I have no idea, because Laqueur doesn’t provide any citation to any spokesman saying anything about anything. Nevertheless, Laqueur knows that these swarthy young men with the hoodies and the hip hop HATE FRANCE AND ITS INSTITUTIONS AND ITS WELL BEHAVED WHITE PEOPLE.
On the danger of Angry Swarthy Turkish People in Germany:
According to German officials, their [the Islamists] number is not formidable- 3600 in Berlin- and it has not grown significantly over the years. But this refers to militants, professionals, or semiprofessionals, and seen from this perspective they are stronger than any other group. Milli Goerues, which has been categorized by German officials as “extremist,” has hundreds of groups based in its mosques. It aims (without mincing words) to replace the secular order in the country in which they live by an order based on the sharia, first in the regions in which Muslims are the majority, or a signficant minority, and subsequently in the areas in which their space has expanded.
Well, I guess we’re fortunate then that there are 5 million people in the Berlin metropolitan area; otherwise that 3600 number (not growing, by the way) would be cause for concern.
On European anti-terror laws:
In most European countries (as well as in the United States, Russia, and India), antiterrorist legislation was somewhat strengthened after 9/11 and subsequent terrorist attacks in other countries. But even then the authorities were largely powerless to arrest of sentence suspected terrorists. If they did so, they were denounced as acting illegally by no only local human rights watch organizations, Amnesty International, and so on, but also European political institutions- usually with reference to the European Convention on Human Rights.
Again, some citation of actual cases would have been helpful; I suspect that Amnesty has at some point complained about something that’s happened in Europe, but I certainly wouldn’t have the faintest idea what that was from reading Laqueur. More to the point, Laqueur’s contention about the insufficiency of anti-terrorist law enforcement in Europe is almost surreal. Every country that Laqueur mentions give vastly greater powers to its police apparatus than is enjoyed by their US counterparts; Patriot Act notwithstanding, the average Briton, German, and Frenchman is subject to considerably greater scrutiny than the average American. This is the legacy not only of the strong security states that emerged in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, but also of the anti-terror campaigns that the major European states waged in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. Laqueur doesn’t bother to grapple with this, because he wants to describe weak anti-terror laws as a peculiarly European problem, with the namby pamby and the EU and the Amnesty and the welfare state et al.
And then he messes with political science:
There are more no-go zones in France than in Britain, and political scientists believe that France faces balkanization in the not too distant future.
Really? Which political scientists? Are there other political scientists who disagree? How would you characterize the argument? I dunno, I dunno, and I dunno, because Laqueur simply invokes the majesty of political science in support of his hypothesis that France is disintegrating, without telling us which political scientists he’s citing.
I could go on. He rambles nonsensically about the perilous weakness of the European military establishment, without mentioning that two of the top five, four of the top ten, and seven of the top twenty in defense spending belong to the EU. He rants about “pundits” and “think tanks” that keep arguing about European predominance, without citing precisely who makes these arguments, in what context, or with what caveats.
In a sane and just world, the editor, publisher, and author of this volume would be permanently excluded from polite society; to call this book pernicious, dishonest, ill-informed dreck is to do a disservice to genuine, quality dreck. Unfortunately, Laqueur suffers no sanction; the book exists in the alternate reality of right wing hackery, in which no argument can be so stupid, so poorly supported, and so dishonest to earn general reproach, as long as it expresses concern about the darkies and the welfare and the foreign policy weakness.
Fred Kaplan and Pavel Podvig show Mitt Romney why it’s a mistake to let the morons and fanatics at the Heritage Foundation write your op-eds for you….
This is why so many right wing blogs tend to eschew comments. This is unquestionably my favorite:
Agosto Pinchet had the right idea when it came to dealig with commies.
Ya just can’t do better than that. Incidentally, Zombie earned his cred in the right blogosphere with a long, detailed [sic] explanation of how polls suggesting a large Obama lead were in fact a liberal plot to disguise a small Obama lead. Make sure that you read the afterword…
I have an article up at Right Web on nuclear policy and the institutional Right.
The vehement attacks against President Obama’s arms control initiatives reveal the extent to which the militarist extreme in the Republican Party’s foreign policy establishment has remained deeply entrenched despite the significant setbacks hawks have suffered since helping drive the country into war with Iraq. Using language that conjures images from the heyday of the Cold War, neoconservatives and other right-wing nationalists have endeavored to paint the administration as willing to sacrifice national security to achieve international acclaim. They have also drowned out more moderate voices in the Republican Party, whose realist views, although more in line with the policies pushed by the Obama administration, are failing to have an impact on conservative discourse.
Read the rest at Right Web.
It’s kind of hard to tell, but I think that Reliapundit is arguing that an alien invasion will (massacres and general butchery aside) usher in a New Golden Age for humanity, expose us to the One True Religion, and make everyone better off. Perhaps Reliapundit is a Cylon? Would make a lot more sense…
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In general, I feel the same way as Yglesias and Attackerman about the Venezuelan Embassy’s aggressive spamming tactics. In this case, however, the Venezuelan ambassador’s letter to the editor of Armed Forces Journal is a useful corrective to Peter Brookes’ hysterical nonsense about the threat that Hugo Chavez poses to motherhood, apple pie, etc. While Brookes raises some legitimate concerns about possible Venezuelan efforts to help Iran evade international banking and finance restrictions, most of his argument is simply garbage. For example, he hoists the trusty “why would an oil exporting state ever need nuclear power” canard, when the answer is quite obvious; nuclear power used for domestic needs means that more oil can be exported on the international market. The other terrifying oil exporting, nuclear power generating state in the Western hemisphere is called “Canada,” and is well known to exert a destabilizing influence on all of its neighbors. As for the military buildup that Venezuela is allegedly using to intimidate its neighbors, I’ll simply let the ambassador tell the story:
About 1.1 percent of Venezuela’s gross national product goes to military spending, below the South American regional average of 1.7 percent and significantly less than Colombia (5.7 percent), Chile (2.9 percent) and Brazil (1.5 percent). Despite having the region’s second-largest GDP, Venezuela is fourth in total defense spending, behind Brazil, Colombia and Chile.
As to specific concerns Brookes raised, the following is important to consider: The purchase of Russian fighter jets corresponds exactly to the number of F-16s sold to Venezuela by the U.S. in 1980. Since the U.S. has refused to supply key parts necessary for these planes, Venezuela has been forced to look elsewhere to rebuild its air force. Therefore, the new planes come as a replacement, and not as an expansion, of its existing fleet..
With regard to Brookes’ complaints as to who is selling Venezuela these goods, it bears recognizing that in 2006, the Bush administration imposed a set of politically motivated sanctions on Venezuela limiting the sale of arms, military goods and dual-use equipment. That Venezuela is purchasing needed equipment from countries other than the U.S. is not a surprise — it’s a basic necessity.
The inability of the right wing foreign policy machine to distinguish between a leftish leader with autocratic tendencies and mild aspirations to regional influence and TEH GREATEST THREAT TO AMERICAN SECURITY SINCE THE LAST GREATEST THREAT TO AMERICA remains troubling.
You just knew that the announcement that the US wouldn’t respond to a chemical attack with nuclear weapons would bring out the real idiots. Thers is on the case, but let me make a few points clear:
1. Just because nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons are lumped together doesn’t mean that they have comparable effects. “WMD” is a nearly worthless term, because nukes really aren’t like chem or bio weapons in scale of effect.
2. The US has massive conventional superiority over any foe or potential combination of foes. This, as they say, provides a deterrent.
3. The threat to use nuclear weapons in response to a chemical or biological attack wasn’t credible in the first place, in part because of the difference in scale, and in part because of the aforementioned massive US conventional superiority.
Of course, none of this will stop the stupid; it’s just useful to keep such things in mind.
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The UK government needs to be “less deferential” towards the US and more willing to say no to Washington, a group of MPs have said. The Commons Foreign Affairs committee also said it was wrong to speak of “the special relationship” with the US, as it was fostering other alliances.
However, the MPs did agree that the link between the countries was “profound and valuable”…
The committee said that the relationship was more associated now with the perceived support Britain gave to President George W Bush over the Iraq war. “The perception that the British government was a subservient ‘poodle’ to the US administration leading up to the period of the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath is widespread both among the British public and overseas,” it said.
“This perception, whatever its relation to reality, is deeply damaging to the reputation and interests of the UK.”
Don’t be surprised if you hear wingnuts babbling that Obama is destroying our most treasured alliances; the strategic goal is to make sure that Obama is blamed for every palpable failure of the Bush administration. As we all know, Obama played a key role in shuffling Iraq’s WMD off to Syria before the war…