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Tag: "bloggingheads"

Foreign Entanglements: Evaluating the Latest on Gaza

[ 5 ] November 30, 2012 |

On this week’s episode of Foreign Entanglements, Matt speaks with Elizabeth Tsurkov about Operation Pillar of Defense:

Asymmetric Beliefs Can Lead to Bad Outcomes

[ 88 ] November 8, 2012 |

This may, believe it or not, be the scariest thing I’ve ever read about the modern GOP:

Romney advisers are telling CBS News that there wasn’t one person on the Romney campaign who saw the loss coming, and the GOP presidential candidate was “shellshocked” by the results. Here’s what they have to say:

  • “We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory…I don’t think there was one person who saw this coming.”
  • “There’s nothing worse than when you think you’re going to win, and you don’t…It was like a sucker punch.”
  • Romney “was shellshocked.”

The CBS story indicates that the Romney team even bought into the “unskewed polls” theory, believing that the polls dramatically underestimated Republican turnout and overestimated Democratic enthusiasm.

This report comes after other indications that the Romney campaign was disregarding polling data.

It’s one thing for the rubes to believe that an election is in the bag when the actual chances of victory are south of 10%; indeed, a good campaign requires creating the conditions for suspension of disbelief. It’s entirely another when the braintrust of the campaign has determined to smoke its own product. When I wrote this post, I didn’t really think that the core strategists in the campaign had abandoned connection with reality; rather, I figured it was mostly #2 and #3. Asymmetric beliefs about the probabilities of success in conflict can produce bad outcomes. Another way of phrasing is that it would be remarkably more reassuring to learn that the campaign was simply lying about its chances (and, of course, they may still be); lying, at least, can be entirely rational. See also Ari Kohen on the difference between hope and delusion.

As it happens, Dan Nexon and I chatted about this just today:

Foreign Entanglements: A Red Line Here, a Bombing Campaign There…

[ 11 ] October 2, 2012 |

On the latest episode of Foreign Entanglements, Matt speaks with Jamie Fly about Bibi’s Bomb Cartoon speech:

Foreign Entanglements: Romney and Iran

[ 0 ] September 2, 2012 |

Matt and Meir Javedanfar talk Iran, Israel, and US politics:

Foreign Entanglements: Democracy in Egypt

[ 0 ] June 10, 2012 |

Matt Duss talks with Eric Trager:

Foreign Entanglements: Egypt Election Edition

[ 1 ] May 21, 2012 |

Matt Duss and Hussein Ibish talk about the election in Egypt:

Foreign Entanglements: Duss vs. Gartenstein-Ross

[ 1 ] May 4, 2012 |

Matt Duss and Daveed Gartenstein-Ross talk about the Richard Grenell finding:

Uruk-hai vs. Dothraki

[ 61 ] April 28, 2012 |

Charli and I talk about racial representations in Tolkien and George R.R. Martin:

But I have to ask… Uruk-hai vs. Dothraki: Who would win in a fight?

Foreign Entanglements: Sanctions Part Deux

[ 1 ] April 16, 2012 |

Mark Dubowitz (Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies) and I follow up the sanctions conversation that Matt and Michael Singh started last week:

Foreign Entanglements: Sanctions Now, Sanctions Tomorrow, Sanctions Forever?

[ 1 ] April 13, 2012 |

Michael Singh and Matt Duss have a very good conversation on Iran sanctions policy in the latest Foreign Entanglements:

With any luck, Mark Dubowitz of FDD and I will be having a conversation early next week on the same topic.

Foreign Entanglements: Intervention and Stuff

[ 5 ] April 9, 2012 |

Michael Cohen has the courage to tell everyone that everything is just fine:

And yes; I realize that this BHTV represented a lighting fail.

Foreign Entanglements: Duss vs. Birnbaum

[ 4 ] March 31, 2012 |

On this week’s Foreign Entanglements, Matt Duss speaks with Ben Birnbaum regarding indications that Israel may not strike Iran:

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