My friend Steve is an atmospheric scientist and a hardcore baseball fan. He’s devised an ingenious simulation, in which he predicts the probable outcome of the remainder of a baseball season based on a method which involves using the Pythagorean records of teams to predict how they will do given their remaining schedules. In other words he evaluates both the strength of individual teams and of their schedules on the basis of runs scored and allowed rather than won-loss records. He (or rather his computer) then plays out the remainder of the season 100,000 times.
Here’s his current simulation results for the remainder of this season:
AL East: Rays 56%, Red Sox 43%, Yankees 1%, Blue Jays 0.1%
AL Central: White Sox 61%, Twins 38%, Tigers 0.6%, Indians 0.04%
AL West: Angels 99.993%, Rangers 0.007%
AL Wildcard: Red Sox 46%, Rays 36%, Twins 7%, White Sox 5%, Yankees 5%, Blue Jays 0.8%, Rangers 0.2%, Tigers 0.1%
NL East: Phillies 62%, Mets 28%, Marlins 9%, Braves 0.7%
NL Central: Cubs 87%, Brewers 12%, Cardinals 0.9%
NL West: Diamondbacks 57%, Dodgers 43%, Rockies 0.09%
NL Wildcard: Brewers 71%, Cardinals 14%, Cubs 11%, Mets 1%, Phillies 1%, Marlins 0.4%, Astros 0.4%, Diamondbacks 0.2%, Dodgers 0.2%, Braves 0.01%
If your favorite team isn’t listed it means they didn’t make the playoffs in any of the 100,000 simulations.