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Hopeful About Indiana

[ 0 ] November 5, 2008 |

Obama is ahead in counties that he has no business being ahead in…

These Things Would Make Me Happy

[ 36 ] November 5, 2008 |

Liddy Dole going down will be sweet.


[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |

I would suggest that Rob’s forthcoming cruel division of PUMAs start with this classic. For the next four years, I hope we can all remember that not only is making words out of “Obama” the sign of a truly great wit, it gets funnier and funnier every time you do it.

I declare this Open Election Thread the First.

Worst Two Term Prez?

[ 33 ] November 4, 2008 |

I’m thinking that Bush has become very competitive for the title of worst President ever (look out, James Buchanan!), but is there any doubt that he’s the worst ever to serve two full terms? Is there anyone even mildly competitive?

Did Bill Ayers Cast Obama’s Vote?

[ 6 ] November 4, 2008 |

If so, let’s hope he voted Obama.

Victory and its Aftermath

[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |

To a degree, I share Paul’s melancholy attitude about election night.

If McCain somehow wins, I guess it’s 50/50 whether I’ll react by squeezing all my rage, disappointment, and crushing depression into a tiny little ball that I’ll then release at a socially inappropriate time (“UK professor beats traffic cop to death”), or by launching into a 3-4 week bender of alcoholic dissipation. But really, it’s hard for me to even imagine how I’ll feel after a McCain victory; horrible, I guess.

If the much more likely Obama victory comes to pass, tonight’s victory will be a joyous occasion. I’m rather fond of America, and I get depressed when it has significant errors of judgment (the 2000 elections), and when it makes howlingly stupid mistakes (the 2004 election). This is a redemptive moment, not in the sense that Barack Obama is a redemptive figure, but rather in that the election will represent a rejection of George W. Bush, and all that for which he stands. It’s going to be like Christmas, except that in addition to getting lots of presents, we get to see presents taken away from the people we dislike the most.

I’ll be blogging tonight as long as I’m sober enough to manipulate the keys. I’m especially looking forward to writing a series of cruelly derisive posts about PUMAs, whose blogospheric movement has represented a previously unachieved nexus of the crazy and the stupid. It will also be entertaining to watch the Wingnutosphere pass through the five stages of grief, although I frankly doubt that we’ll get past Anger tonight.

But then on Wednesday it’s all over, and we’ll have President-elect Obama, and we’ll have bigger majorities in the House and Senate, and it’ll no longer be about beating down the wingnuts. Joe Lieberman will endure as a villain, but one of the central motivating concepts behind the progressive blogosphere will disappear. To be sure, there are some upsides…

  • I get to write more posts about international relations and defense policy, and fewer about the election.
  • I get to think about the world not in terms of electoral calculation, as in “I bet Obama’s grandmother dying is worth half a point in PA”.
  • I get so much of my time back from 538, Pollster, and a few other sites that I currently read obsessively (although I must say that I’m looking forward to 538 After Dark).

…but the downside is that the progressive blogosphere will never be the same; it will, to great extent, fragment across a variety of policy preferences and expectations about the performance of Obama and the Democrats in Congress. We’ll see lots of annoying demands for solidarity by centrist-progressives and left-progressives. All this is desirable and necessary, but it won’t be as much fun as it’s been thus far. And that’s kind of too bad; in an important sense, the progressive blogosphere will end tonight.

And so tomorrow I tear the Obama sticker off my phone, and take down the Obama sign in the yard, because it’s a bit creepy and wingnut-esque to carry out pictures of the President. And I’ll be kind of sad, because I’m guessing that getting there will be much more than half of the fun.

Tramp the Dirt Down ’08

[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |


Ah, I remember the days when the 2000 election was allegedly “Gush v. Bore” ho ho ho. And some people making thus argument not only still have jobs on prominent op-ed pages but are actually respected by many liberals.

Preliminary Colorado exit polling data

[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |

This is weighted by affiliation but doesn’t attempt to incorporate early voting:

Obama 52

McCain 47

Election Day, Toddler Edition

[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |

The wife and I voted in Juneau this morning, about 15 minutes after the polls opened. We brought the kid with us; she’s only two-and-a-half, but she was pretty excited to be there. She joined both of us in our booths for a few seconds each as we filled in the ovals before the optical scanner gobbled them up and — really, I’m just guessing here — erroneously converted them into votes for McCain, Ted Stevens and Don Young. She pitched a smallish fit when she learned that we weren’t going to be able to vote again. I told her if she didn’t pipe down, I was going to have to e-mail John Fund and let him know what was going on. That seemed to do the trick.

In any case, on the drive to day care, she and I had a great chat about the election. She knows about as much about the whole event as I suspect a toddler can absorb, which is to say that she recognizes the candidates’ faces and voices, and she’s made some preliminary assessments of their general temperaments.

“Dad, did you vote?”
“Yes, I voted.”
“Dad, did mommy vote?”
“Yes, she voted.”
“Did you vote for Barack Obama?”
“Yes, I voted for Barack Obama.”
[Long pause]
“John McCain is crabby.”

Let’s hope she’s right.

Exit Polls

[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |

After 2004 I was never going to make the mistake of paying attention to them again, but just in case you were tempted

Deep Thought

[ 0 ] November 4, 2008 |

People who think that Obama will win aren’t taking the inevitable last-minute release of the Whitey Tape into account.

What Produces The Lines

[ 6 ] November 4, 2008 |

In response to the inequities and inefficiencies of American voting on this election day, I would like to reiterate that the decentralized, frequently underfunded American voting is crazy.