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"It’s a *Nursing Home*!"

[ 0 ] March 12, 2006 | Scott Lemieux

So 10 minutes ago my plan was to post about how it’s great to have it back, but the climax was maybe a touch too predictable , plus this is another example of the trend of getting rid of interesting new characters too quickly. Um, evidently, scratch that. And the dynamics it sets off with Janice and Bobby…wow. Well, it is the best drama the medium has ever produced.

I also like the way in which the greater leverage of New York was made clear. (Was Hesh’s relative knocked around as an intentional message to Tony?)

The GOP Abortion Two-Step

[ 0 ] March 12, 2006 | Scott Lemieux

For the classic example of what Matt and I are talking about, note George Allen’s performance on Press the Meat this morning. I’ll put the relevant parts up as soon as the transcript is online, but Allen gave the classic performance. Russert asked about overturning Roe, and Allen talked about how Roe has been “interpreted” to prohibit parental notification statutes. (I assume most of you know this, but–in several senses–sadly, no!) Russert repeats the question, and Allen keeps babbling about how parents have to be informed if their daughter gets a tattoo. Now, it would be nice if the highly-paid host was aware that Allen was lying through his teeth. And it would be nicer if a non-useless Democrat would have pointed that out, but alas we were dealing with Joe Biden. But we really need to learn something from this. Here’s the Shorter Republican Party on abortion:

Q: Do you think first-trimester abortions should be banned?

A: We need parental notification laws!

Q: But do you think first-trimester abortions should be banned?

A: We should pass pointless laws arbitrarily banning a particular second-trimester abortion procedure! We can give it a scientifically meaningless scary name! Scary names, people!

Q: Do you agree with your party’s platform, which would make abortion first-degree murder in all fifty states?

A: States’ rights!

Q: ?

(Repeat ad infinitum ad nauseum)

What does this tell you? Again, it should be obvious to anybody more competent than Joe Biden what the play is here. Unless we assume that the Republicans are irrationally keeping an extremely popular position under wraps, and that every public opinion survey is wrong, we should make knowledge of the Republicans’ actual position on the issue as clear as possible, as often as possible. Do what the Republicans do: no matter what comes up, debate the issue on favorable terrain. Any Democrat should immediately point out that overturning Roe has nothing to do with parental notification; it’s about whether pre-viability abortions should be criminalized. Period. Every time the Democrats talk about John McCain, in addition to showing a lot of pictures of the “maverick” getting all smoochy-woochy with Mr. 36%, they should pound two points over and over again:

  • John McCain wants to privatize Social Security.
  • John McCain supports the South Dakota abortion law. John McCain supports banning all abortions. John McCain believes that states can force you to give birth to your own sister or your rapist’s child.

Let him dodge and weave around this and destroy his “straight talking” reputation, or endorse positions that are both awful on the merits and highly unpopular. It ain’t rocket science.

…in response to Pithlord’s comment, to be clear McCain is on the record saying he would have signed the SD bill.

Sunday Battleship Blogging: USS Washington

[ 0 ] March 12, 2006 | Robert Farley

The London Naval Treaty of 1936 was intended to preserve the battleship size limitation at 35000 tons and to restrict the size of battleship gun size to 14″. In retrospect, it’s hard to see how the latter mattered; as long as the 35000 ton frame was observed, there was only so much advantage to be had by installing larger guns. The United States designed its first post treaty battleships, the North Carolina class, to carry 12 14″ guns in three quadruple turrets. However, the London Naval Treaty had an escape clause. If any one of the original three signatories failed to ratify, then the gun calibre limitation was raised to 16″. Japan did not sign the treaty (her representatives would have been assassinated if she had), so the 14″ limitation did not apply. The Royal Navy, in a fit of wild hope, had already begun construction of the 14″ weapons for its King George V class, and could not alter their design. The design of North Carolina and Washington, however, allowed the use of either 14″ or 16″ weapons. Accordingly, the Americans quickly substituted the heavier guns.

USS Washington and her sister, North Carolina, were the first American battleships built since 1921. They carried 9 16″ guns in three triple turrets, displaced 35000 tons standard (45000 full load), and could make 28 knots. Their armour was somewhat less extensive than that of foreign contemporaries, but their anti-aircraft armaments were very strong, making them extremely effective as aircraft carrier escorts.

Washington was commissioned in May 1941. Being the first of a new generation of ships, Washington suffered from considerable teething troubles, and required an extensive period of trials and training. This kept Washington in the Atlantic, where she was, incidentally, closer to the war in Europe. It is fortunate that Washington and North Carolina were not deployed with the Pacific Fleet. Although they would have had a better chance at surviving than the older battleships at Pearl Harbor, their loss or even damage would have been a severe handicap for the US Navy. Washington deployed to the United Kingdom for service with the Home Fleet in March 1942. Washington helped guard convoys to Murmansk, and it is conceivable that she could have met Tirpitz or Scharnhorst in action. Such a battle would almost certainly have favored Washington; her armament and armor were superior to that of Tirpitz, and she had much better fire control. In September, after a refit, she entered the Pacific, where she would remain for most of the war.

In late September Washington was deployed to the Solomon Islands. The battle of Guadalcanal centered around the control and operation of Henderson Airfield. Japanese forces had been pushed back on the island of Guadalcanal, but still held
considerable ground. Japanese naval units resupplied the Army forces at night, and heavy Japanese units bombarded Henderson Field on a regular basis. The US Navy’s job was to prevent this from happening. On November 13, 1942 Washington was positioned, along with the battleship South Dakota and four destroyers, to intercept a Japanese task force steaming toward Henderson Field. The Japanese fleet included the Kirishima, one of four Kongo class battlecruisers. On paper, the US force was quite superior, but the Japanese had considerable skill a night-fighting and had better torpedos. In a confused night action, all four US destroyers were crippled or sunk, and South Dakota managed to wander into the searchlights of most of the Japanese force. The Japanese lacked radar, however, and didn’t notice the approach of Washington. Washington did exactly what a modern battleship should have done to a thirty year old battlecruiser, and reduced Kirishima to sinking condition in about ten minutes. The rest of the Japanese force retired shortly afterward. Washington suffered no damage.

The rest of the war was spent largely in carrier escort by Washington. Her closest brush with disaster came in February 1944, when she rammed the battleship Indiana. Indiana received the brunt of the damage, but Washington was still forced to retire to Puget Sound Naval Yard for a refit. Later, Washington would serve as an escort at the Battle of Philippine Sea and the Battle of Leyte Gulf. Washington would also deliver shore bombardment at Iwo Jima and Okinawa.

Washington was taken out of commission in June 1947. The US Navy went through three major cycles of battleship disposal in the twentieth century. The first came in 1922-23, when most of the pre-dreadnoughts and older dreadnougts were scrapped in accordance with the Washington Naval Treaty. Between 1946 and 1948, all of the pre-war battleships, with the exception of the Big Five and Mississippi, were either scrapped or sunk as targets. The last cycle came in the late 1950s, when the Big Five (Colorado, Maryland, West Virginia, California, and Tennessee) and six of the ten fast battleships were disposed of, either through scrapping or through donation. Alabama, Massachusetts, and North Carolina were all adopted by their respective states. Washington was not, probably because, given the existence of a major naval reserve yard in the Puget Sound, it didn’t seem to make sense to keep another old battleship around.

Trivia Question: What do the battlecruiser Hood and Rear Admiral Horace Hood have in common, other than the name?

Koufax Voting Open

[ 0 ] March 11, 2006 | Scott Lemieux

[Bumping this because voting closes today at midnight.]

Voting for the Koufax awards, hosted by the fine and pledge-worthy people and Wampum, is now open. Browsing the nominees will introduce you to lots of great stuff. Lawyers, Guns & Money has been nominated in several categories: Best Writing, Most Deserving of Wider Recognition, Best Group Blog, Best Series, and Best Post. In the latter category, I hope you’ll give special consideration to my post GOP: Fetuses Are Rights-bearing Subjects, Adult Women Are Not, which I still like and evidently addresses an increasingly salient issue. Happy browsing!

Why Pinochet?

[ 0 ] March 11, 2006 | Robert Farley

This is something I’ve wondered ever since, long, long ago, I was on the other side of the political fence. Why is it that Augusto Pinochet gets lefties into such a lather?

I mean this question in all seriousness, and I’m looking for serious answers. Pinochet has always struck me as a kind of middling dictator, not worthy of the hatred that the left holds for him. From what I understand, Chile under Pinochet was somewhat less bloody than the Philippines under Marcos and Argentina under its military junta. He certainly didn’t approach the level of brutality found in Guatemala, El Salvador, or the Dominican Republic under Trujillo. Saddam Hussein, Idi Amin, and the various leaders of China make him look like a rank amateur in the tyranny game. Yet, the invocation of Pinochet lets loose the rage. I don’t understand.

I suppose that Castro is a good comparison. Both Pinochet and Castro evoke particular emotions from the right and the left, emotions that seem to me all out of line with their actual crimes. Some lefties defend Castro for what he has done, which is create a passably decent social welfare system. Righties defend Pinochet in virtually the same way, excusing his brutality by referrring to Chile’s economy. Neither of these positions makes all that much sense to me, but whatever.

Anyway, I look forward to some responses.

The Enemy Within

[ 0 ] March 11, 2006 | Robert Farley

Really interesting article in the NYT about Saddam Hussein and Iraqi military strategy in the second Gulf War. To put it lightly, Saddam was not an ideal military leader.

As American warplanes streaked overhead two weeks after the invasion began, Lt. Gen. Raad Majid al-Hamdani drove to Baghdad for a crucial meeting with Iraqi leaders. He pleaded for reinforcements to stiffen the capital’s defenses and permission to blow up the Euphrates River bridge south of the city to block the American advance.

But Saddam Hussein and his small circle of aides had their own ideas of how to fight the war. Convinced that the main danger to his government came from within, Mr. Hussein had sought to keep Iraq’s bridges intact so he could rush troops south if the Shiites got out of line.

This demonstrates a fundamental mis-understanding of the military situation. It was obvious at the time that the question of maintaining control over the south would be irrelevant if the Americans took control of Baghdad. Hussein hopelessly misjudged the situation.

Other interesting revelations include this:

Taking a page out of the Russian playbook, Iraqi officers suggested a new strategy to defend the homeland. Just as Russia yielded territory to defeat Napoleon and later Hitler’s invading army, Iraq would resist an invading army by conducting a fighting retreat. Well-armed Iraqi tribes would be like the Russian partisans. Armored formations, including the Republican Guard, would assume a more modest role.

Mr. Hussein rejected the recommendation. Arming local tribes was too risky for a government that lived in fear of a popular uprising.

Which suggests that Hussein probably made the American job a bit easier than it otherwise might have been. Of course, as Hussein undoubtedly noted, there was no assurance that the southern tribes would use these weapons against the invader, rather than against the Iraqi state.

And this:

In December 2002, he told his top commanders that Iraq did not possess unconventional arms, like nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, according to the Iraq Survey Group, a task force established by the C.I.A. to investigate what happened to Iraq’s weapons programs. Mr. Hussein wanted his officers to know they could not rely on poison gas or germ weapons if war broke out. The disclosure that the cupboard was bare, Mr. Aziz said, sent morale plummeting.

which we really should have known at the time. If the Iraq military commanders knew that Iraq possessed no WMD capability, then it’s a travesty that the US didn’t have the information.

The article is very interesting, so read the whole thing. The upshot is that Iraq was in a state of staggering military weakness in March of 2003. Iraqi capabilities were far, far lower than they had been even in 1991. This has a couple of implications. First, the suggestion that Iraq was somehow a threat to its neighbors is obviously nonsense. While it may have had the capacity to briefly overrun Kuwait or part of Saudi Arabia (and this is quite a stretch) it would have suffered almost immediate military collapse in any war. The second implication is one that has been derived previously by Stephen Biddle, and suggests that the Iraq War is in fact not a meaningful test of US military power. Iraq may have been one of the least militarily capable states in the world in 2003, and it’s not surprising that the US mopped the floor with the Iraqi Army. This is not to say that the US military isn’t better than any potential competitor, but rather to suggest that Gulf War II may provide a misleading indicator of the extent of US military dominance.

Brief Thoughts on Slobodan

[ 0 ] March 11, 2006 | Robert Farley

It’s too bad he died before the trial could be completed, not so much because he needed to be punished more severely (although he did), but because he was an interesting test case for international justice.

I did not support (and still do not support) the prosecution of Augusto Pinochet in a European court. It seems to me that some incentive must be left for dictators to peacefully and safely leave power, and as long as Pinochet isn’t dictator of Chile, I really don’t care all that much about him. Much worse, in my view, would be setting a precedent under which a dictator peacefully steps down, with agreement for his own security in place, and then is prosecuted anyway. The question, for me, is simply not a moral one. That is, I’m not terribly interested in the question of what dictators deserve. I’m much more interested in the problem of removing dictators from power without bloodshed, and if we begin prosecuting guys like Pinochet, we’re likely to see dictators more reluctant to step down. Fidel Castro is a bad guy, but if he were willing to take a billion dollars to step down and move to France tomorrow, I think it would be a good policy outcome.

But, as I recall, this really doesn’t apply to Milosevic. His regime collapsed, and his home state sent him to The Hague. A fair trial (to both Milosevic and to the prosecution) could not be had in Serbia. There should be some international mechanism to deal with situations like this, and it’s a pity that the mechanism didn’t get fully tested in this case.

Kat has more.

UPDATE: In comments, Randy asks

Then another dictator takes power and wants an immunity agreement. Where do you draw the line?

My first response is that I think this is a nonsensical question. I may be wrong regarding the personalities of authoritarian rulers, but I’d be pretty surprised to find that any of them thought very much, while attaining power, about whether they would be prosecuted if they fell. I don’t think that there’s any moral hazard here; allowing dictators who establish specific immunity agreements before stepping down to avoid prosecution is not, in my view, going to create an incentive for some huge number of potential dictators to seize power and start shooting people. There is already plenty of incentive for seizing authoritarian power; a misguided sense of patriotism, a desire for power, a desire for wealth, whatever. Also, given the number of dictators who fall prey to violent ends or to imprisonment at the hands of successor authoritarian regimes (and this tends to happen more often than the replacement by democratic regimes), you can color me enormously skeptical regarding this portion of the argument.

Second, I’m inclined to say “Who cares?” Aleksandr Lukashenko, Fidel Castro, Islam Karimov, Emomali Rahmonov, and Saparat Niyazov are all dictators with varying degrees of nastiness. I would not hesitate to grant them singly or as a group an amnesty based on a surrender of power to a democratic government. I really can’t see how this would further the ends of authoritarian rulers in the world; I think it’s much, much more likely that, if promised security in their persons and their property (and this doesn’t mean that they keep everything; obviously such solutions can be negotiated), that these leaders would, in situations where they otherwise faced pressure, be more likely to surrender power than to attempt to hold on to it through brutal and repressive means. Note further that this does not involve some kind of blanket amnesty for authoritarian rulers, which is how some seem to be interpreting it. Authoritarians who allow a transition minimizing bloodshed get credit; those who don’t can be prosecuted to our heart’s delight.

After SD Part III: The Best Defense of Reproductive Freedom Is A Good Offense

[ 0 ] March 10, 2006 | Scott Lemieux

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The New State Logo.


Molly Saves the Day has 20 questions for those who allege that abortion is “baby killing.” Ask them to most “pro-lifers,” of course, and I’m sure you’ll re-discover what you should already know: the number of anti-choicers who believe (or, at least, are willing to act in ways logically consistent with their alleged premises) could fit in a walk-in closet. And, of course, even the few who take a coherent position face the problem that criminal bans on abortion are highly unpopular. And, moreover, to Republican elites the optimal policy is not so much “abortion should be illegal” as “abortion should be illegal, but no quite so illegal that my daughter wouldn’t be able to get one.” (Because of the way abortion bans are actually enforced in practice, though, even an outright ban in most states can produce this outcome.)

For supporters of reproductive freedom, however, the problem is that American anti-choicers are as clever as they are illogical and unprincipled. They’ve constructed a very careful strategy of piecemeal regulations that have little impact on affluent women (but, cumulatively, seriously restrict abortion access for women who are poor, in rural areas, and/or in unstable familial relationships) and are politically palatable. And, to go along with this, they’re currently in the courts trying to make it much more difficult to challenge these regulations. If this strategy succeeds, it would allow states to construct baffling obstacle courses without paying the political price of banning abortion, and would also have the perverse result of making the grossly inequitable effects of these regulations an argument in favor of their constitutionality. But as important as this legal strategy is, it’s very difficult to explain why it matters. While it’s almost impossible to defend these policy outcomes normatively, as pure politics it’s very hard to counter, and in many cases it’s hard to make it clear to the public what’s at stake.

Which is the one potential silver lining of the appalling South Dakota law. It has the potential to blow their “reasonable regulation” cover, and make clear what will happen in many states if Roe is overturned: bans on abortion (albeit bans that inexplicably exclude women from punishments, don’t have sanctions for doctors logically consistent with the idea that abortion is “baby-killing”, etc.) Publius explains:

I’d actually go a couple steps further. I would ask every single Republican candidate up for re-election in 2006: “Do you support imprisoning doctors for performing abortions following rapes, as South Dakota’s new law demands?” If they hid behind the rape exception, then you could follow up with Oliver’s question about whether doctors should be thrown in jail for performing abortions more generally.

The combination of the Alito and Roberts confirmations along with the South Dakota law is, I think, a watershed moment in the abortion wars. The South Dakota law in particular should serve as a wake-up call to the pro-choice movement that its tactics aren’t working and that it needs to make some changes in its long-term strategy. To develop Oliver’s point, if I were a consultant, I would recommend that the pro-choice movement make two major changes: (1) It should shift its emphasis from a defensive legal strategy to an offensive political strategy; (2) It should shift the debate away from abortion itself – and the abstract questions of when life begins – and focus on crime and punishment. In other words, the movement should aim to make an abstract debate more concrete by focusing on criminal sanctions and the imprisonment of doctors and women.

The importance of this insight would be hard to overstate. The South Dakota law is a political opportunity, presenting the chance to make it clear that they mean it: not about abortion being “baby-killing,” of course, but about criminalizing abortion as a way of inscribing the reactionary sexual mores of the GOP base into law. But opportunities are not self-executing: pro-choicers have to make it work. And this, ultimately, is what’s so frustrating about the Saletan approach. Even before this pro-choicers already had many opportunities, starting with the fact that the national Republican Platform endorses a constitutional amendment that would make abortion first-degree murder in all 50 states. When was the last time you heard a Democratic politician mention that, even though maximizing the public’s knowledge of their opponent’s most unpopular positions would seem to be Politics 101? Instead, taking the advice of people like Saletan they accept the debate as it has been arbitrarily carved up by disingenuous pro-lifers, getting in sucked into ludicrous ginned-up non-issues like the “partial-birth” nonsense. The Republicans have been masterful about playing both ends, and keeping the debate focused on tangential side issues. The way to counteract this is not to go along with the existing discourse, but to change the terms of the debate, to make clear what Republicans want to do and put the debate in terms of keeping abortion legal, where public opinion massively favors the Democrats. The draconian (and illegal) actions of the South Dakota legislature provide an excellent frame for making this clear, but the Democrats need to start playing some offense.

(Cross-posted to FDL.)

…UPDATE: I missed this yesterday, but Matt has similar thoughts.

This Better Be Apocryphal

[ 0 ] March 10, 2006 | Scott Lemieux

Yikes. Granting that I generally avoid using that particular word (at least without an academic justification–when I teach Cohen next week I think it’s fair game to tell the story about how Harlan almost read “fuck the draft” in open court to annoy Burger), but…what do other teachers out there think about this?

Go Ducks!!!

[ 0 ] March 10, 2006 | Robert Farley

I have been remiss in failing to congratulate my Ducks for beating the living snot out of 13th ranked Washington Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament. The Ducks have to win two more games (against Cal and either UCLA or Stanford) for a bid, and that’s unlikely to happen. But, beating the Huskies was also unlikely.

Go Ducks!!!!

[ 0 ] March 10, 2006 | Robert Farley


Friday Cat Blogging… Starbuck and Nelson

Season 6

[ 0 ] March 9, 2006 | Robert Farley

Like other civilized people, I’m breathlessly awaiting the beginning of season six of the Sopranos on Sunday. I’ve just re-watched Long Term Parking:

I want your promise it will be quick.

I’m not going to lie to you, Tony; I don’t have to. Phil is going to do it, and he’ll do it his way.

John. This is me now. Come on.

Anything else?

No. You know what, John? I’ll give you undignified. Go fuck yourself.

And this is after Adriana… best show ever.

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