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Leaks!

[ 92 ] January 11, 2017 |

53855893I have little substantive to add to Scott’s post, beyond affirming his recommendation of Lawfare’s treatment. Josh Marshall also outlines what I think is a careful, judicious approach.

Regardless of the veracity of the claims (which originated from outside the US intelligence community), I think it’s fair to say that we’ll open the Trump administration with an unprecedented level of hostility between the President and the IC. One way to read this is deep concern on the part of the IC on just how compromised Trump may be; discussion of the leaks, and of Russian hacking efforts, works to reduce his policy latitude and minimize the degree of Russian influence.  Another way to read it is deep concern over the degree of his outreach to Russia; the leaks and the hacking work to prevent Trump from carrying out policies that he would otherwise prefer, but that the IC loathes.

There’s clearly a middle ground.  Trump sees the prospect for friendly relations with Russia because he’s done business with Russians before, because he has some personal admiration for Putin’s governance style, and because he shares some ideological priors with the Putin government. Those factors serve both as the foundation for Russian support during the election, and as the basis for potentially sketchy relations between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

An interpretation that strains credulity is the one we find on the pro-Russia right and the pro-Russia left; that the IC has manufactured these claims from whole cloth in order to discredit Trump and start a NEW COLD WAR.  In addition to running contrary to publicly available, non-IC evidence, this would go well beyond any precedent in the history of the US IC (and yes, this includes WMD, Operation Northwoods, COINTELPRO, etc.) as well as against what we know about current divisions in the US IC over the prospects of the Trump administration.  While not many in the IC see strong relations with Russia as a positive, there are big factions that see Flynn’s more kinetic approach to Islamic terrorism as a big plus.

I would also add that for the Department of Defense and the US defense industry, Russia is almost completely irrelevant to the NEW COLD WAR. Although Moscow has clearly displayed its effectiveness at non-military operations, and showed up more effectively than many (including myself) expected in Syria, Russia is not the major driver for defense innovation and defense expenditure.  If you want a bigger, more expensive US military, you talk China, and Trump has already demonstrated that he’s quite capable of driving tensions with Beijing.

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Ambitious!

[ 271 ] January 10, 2017 |
Jeff Sessions by Gage Skidmore.jpg

By Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Cory Booker is apparently testifying against Jefferson Beauregard Sessions out of some combination of ruthless ambition and Neoliberal Sellout-itude.  Doesn’t Booker understand that the genuine socialist move, at this moment in American history, would be to pen an angry diatribe against Meryl Streep?

For shame!

NYC Meetup Wrap

[ 30 ] January 9, 2017 |

15826031_10154172900689327_6754893592248409957_nDespite the snow and frigid temperatures, the NYC LGM Meetup came off fabulously.  Fool’s Gold was an outstanding venue.  See some photos here. More such things should be held in the future; whenever we can expect two or more front pagers to be together in a metro area that has a significant number of LGM readers…

 

DNI Report

[ 322 ] January 6, 2017 |

dniHere ya go. Have at it.

LGM NYC Meetup Reminder

[ 37 ] January 6, 2017 |

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Last reminder! We’ll be meeting tomorrow afternoon at Fool’s Gold, 145 E. Houston St., at 3pm. It should not be hard to find us.

Hold Off on “Verified”

[ 56 ] January 6, 2017 |

Well this, from Julian’s “support” account, is not freakishly creepy in any way:


And the mission of the WL Task Force:

US-China Relations

[ 25 ] January 5, 2017 |
H-6K 20211 20151127.jpg

PLAAF H-6K Bomber By 日本防衛省·統合幕僚監部 – , CC BY 4.0

Given that President Trump has decided that China is where he’ll demonstrate his toughness and resolvitude, here are five areas of potential conflict between Beijing and Washington:

Even prior to his inauguration, President Trump has (for good or ill) unsettled the relationship between the United States and China. While Trump’s dovish instincts on Russia are well known, he (and his team) have suggested a far more controversial stance in the Asia-Pacific. Here are five areas in which both Washington and Beijing will need to tread carefully:

 

Plan Z

[ 19 ] January 4, 2017 |

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The National Interest asked me to contribute a piece on Plan Z:

In the mid-1930s, the Nazi government began to plan in detail for the reconstruction of German naval power. The destruction of the German High Seas Fleet at Scapa Flow remained central to the mythology of German betrayal and defeat in World War I; rebuilding the fleet would be a grand achievement worthy of the Nazis, but also in accord with long-term German foreign policy goals.

Foundry?

[ 18 ] January 3, 2017 |

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I’m on the mailing list for a few defense-oriented DC think tanks, mostly so I can stay abreast of what people are working on. Occasionally, though, I have the chance to spend some time in DC, and have the good luck to be able to attend a roll out. Three quarters of the point of attendance is to see folks and make connections, something that’s doubly important when you only make it to DC three or four times a year. The other quarter point is to find good material for writing. Such was the CNAS “Future Foundry” event on the future of the US defense industry:

Two weeks ago, the Center for New American Security released a new report on the future of U.S. defense innovation. Titled Future Foundry, the report introduces the concept of “optionality,” an interpretation of the Third Offset; the idea that the United States can leverage technological advantage to offset the rise of China and the military re-emergence of Russia.

I can also, for those who have maintained their strong mooch instincts, that CNAS lays out a lovely breakfast buffet.

Grounded at NYMAS

[ 6 ] January 2, 2017 |

This Friday, I’ll be speaking at the New York Military Affairs Symposium on Grounded:nymas1
Should also be available in podcast form at a later date…

NYC Meetup

[ 16 ] January 1, 2017 |

497c923b3b139fda63acdf9040d12841Hey all,

Last month’s DC Meetup was so fabulously successful that we’re planning to do it again. Several front-pagers will be gathering in Manhattan on Saturday, January 7.  We have tentatively scheduled the meetup for 3pm at Fool’s Gold (145 E. Houston Street).  We’re pretty solid on the time, but may adjust the location before Saturday; we’ll keep you informed.  Facebook event page here; RSVPs appreciated, but not necessary.

Management

 

 

2016

[ 16 ] January 1, 2017 |

Tavares.Forum.Romanum.redux.jpg

Here are the top ten posts from 2016:

  1. Goodbye (Farley)
  2. Maureen Dowd is a National Embarrassment (Lemieux)
  3. Trump-inspired classism (Watkins)
  4. The Party Left Me and Other Complaints of the Voter-as-Atomistic-Consumer (Lemieux)
  5. If lawyers make too much money why is Matt Breunig panhandling on the internet? (Campos)
  6. The game is the game (Campos)
  7. Don’t Look at Us, We Didn’t Do It (Lemieux)
  8. Delete Your Column (Lemieux)
  9. The Rubiobot is No Poet and They Don’t Know it (Lemieux)
  10. Nefarious LGM (Campos)

That’s right; Loomis is shut out of the top ten. Sad!

Other random insights from Google Analytics:

Age:

  1. 35-44 (25.75%)
  2. 45-54 (22.97%
  3. 55-64 (21.20%)
  4. 25-34 (19.50%)
  5. 65+ (7.43%)

Nationality

  1. US (87.63%)
  2. Canada (4.17%)
  3. UK (2.45%)
  4. Australia (1.03%)
  5. Germany (.56%)

State

  1. California (14.52%)
  2. New York (10.63%)
  3. Massachusetts (5.07%)
  4. Illinois (4.96%)
  5. Washington (4.86%)

Top Traffic Days:

  1. November 8
  2. November 9
  3. November 21
  4. October 11
  5. March 14

Total Posts: 3267

Total Comments: 348621

Thanks for enduring 2016 with us!

 

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