Subscribe via RSS Feed

Author Page for Robert Farley

rss feed

TNR vs. RT

[ 26 ] March 27, 2012 | Robert Farley

Jesse Zwick at TNR engages in some policing of the left side of the political discourse:

What is surprising, however, are the number of decidedly non-crazy American experts and journalists who appear regularly on the channel’s news programs as guest analysts. Indeed, whether it’s playing host to contributors from respected outlets like The Nation or Reason or the Center for American Progress, RT has excelled in cultivating American liberals and libertarians eager to criticize the United States for its adventurism abroad and sermonizing posture toward other nations.

Between the outrage following allegations of fraud in Russia’s parliamentary elections last December and the country’s more recent veto of a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Syria, it’s clear why RT would want Americans to supply a counter-narrative that makes the United States look out of line for lecturing Russia. The bigger mystery is why American journalists and academics continue to go along for the ride.

I’ll take this seriously for a second, given that some commenters here have also raised eyebrows about my own appearances on RT. Some thoughts:

  1. Although Zwick doesn’t frame it precisely in these terms, part of the issue clearly lies with a discomfort for standpoint journalism, resting on the notion that otherwise accurate observations about American foreign policy run the risk of taint due to the clear biases of RT’s funding sources. Beyond that, however, there’s a clear sense that RT represents the wrong sort of standpoint; Russia is a semi-authoritarian country, and de facto facilitation of Russian criticism of US foreign policy helps undercut American criticism of the Putin regime, or something. However, since I strongly doubt that anyone who watches RT doesn’t appreciate what RT is, it’s hard for me to take this very seriously. It’s also worth noting that there aren’t a lot of American networks that offer the same standpoint as RT, or really any at all. Even on MSNBC serious leftish critique of American foreign policy is limited in both space and scope. And of course, it’s rather rich for the organization that provides a platform for the international politics musings of Marty Peretz and Leon Wieseltier to criticize…. well, anyone or anything.
  2. Zwick points out a number of problems with RT’s international coverage; they’re sometimes a bit given to conspiracy mongering, they reflexively defend Russian foreign policy decisions and the Putin regime, they draw unflattering (and sometimes inaccurate) comparisons between the US and Russia, and so forth. Having seen Fox News now and again, it’s hard for me to take these criticisms seriously. If there’s a difference between RT and Fox, it’s only of the mildest degree. I didn’t watch RT during the South Ossetia War, but I did read TNR, which set an astonishingly low standard for fair and accurate reporting. Moreover, the Alyona Show is genuinely good, comparable to news/talk programs on respectable stations.
  3. That said, I haven’t been pleased with all of my appearances on RT; in a couple of cases I just haven’t been happy with the direction that the conversation has gone.  I suspect, however, that this is true of any set of media appearances on any network. For my part, I prefer to stick to questions of American foreign policy or of general international interest, and would be uncomfortable talking about Russian foreign policy. An American criticizing some aspect of US foreign policy on a Russian-funded station feels to me wholly unproblematic; an American defending Russian foreign policy to an American audience feels more sketchy, depending on the foreign policy in question. But then I don’t recall that they’ve ever asked me to do so.

Overall, I’m pretty comfortable in saying that RT enriches the American marketplace of ideas, and provides space for political voices that would otherwise never be heard. I hope that RT builds in the right direction, allowing for editorial independence while also maintaining a distinct identity. There’s nothing whatsoever wrong with making a Russian view of American politics available to a US audience, especially given the nature of extant media offerings in the United States.

Sunday Book Review: Age of Airpower

[ 45 ] March 25, 2012 | Robert Farley

Martin Van Creveld’s Age of Airpower is a survey of airpower theory and practice since the 19th century. Van Creveld ranges widely in his discussion, from the military employment of balloons prior to the advent of aircraft through World War II and the jet age.   His approach is more or less chronological, although a long section on airpower in counter-insurgency follows the main historical discussion (it’s possible that this was added in the course of revisions).Van Creveld doesn’t exactly have a paragraph long argument,  but a sense of skepticism of airpower pervades the work. From my point of view this puts Van Creveld solidly on the side of the angels, but it would have been more helpful from a policy standpoint if he had clarified his argument.

I’m most interested in the institutional implications of the observation that airpower advocates habitually overestimate the decisiveness of their tool, and Van Creveld does have some thoughts on this point. He traces the early history of the US air forces and the RAF, and surveys institutional structures across the major states in the interwar and post-war periods.   Of most interest are the discussions of German and Russian air power, where the doctrinal and force structure decisions varied greatly from the US and the UK.  The Royal Air Force won its independence earliest, and talked vigorously about strategic bombing for pretty much its entire interwar existence.  The need to maintain relevance and independence during the war, however, pushed the RAF into colonial policing missions that detracted from either air defense or strategic bombing, leaving the service unprepared (especially for the latter) when war came.  The Luftwaffe won independence  in 1935, but never displayed much interest in strategic bombing of the kind popularized in the Anglophone countries, concentrating instead on tactical tasks.  The Russian story is much the same, except that the Soviet air forces remained part of the Red Army. The USAAF was extremely well prepared to undertake a strategic campaign in 1942, largely because airpower advocates in the interwar period had obsessed about independence and saw strategic bombing as the easiest way to achieve it.  In short, the story isn’t as simple as “institutions dictate,” but rather “institutional decisions play out against a complex political background.”

Van Creveld’s delineation of airpower tasks is useful.  He notes the omnipresence of reconnaissance duties since the 19th century, then discusses the other missions as they became technically feasible. Van Creveld includes air superiority, anti-submarine warfare (perhaps putting too much emphasis on World War I and not enough on World War II), close air support, interdiction, countersea operations, strategic bombing, and air mobility.  Van Creveld supplies the strategic logic for all these missions, although the relegation of counter-insurgency ops to a late section makes the timeline less coherent.  Counter-insurgency isn’t just a “lesser included” mission for airpower; the great colonial powers all envisioned airpower as a way of managing their holdings, with colonial ops playing a major role in the early history of the RAF. Van Creveld seems to believe that the genuinely useful missions for airpower involve establishing air superiority and undertaking the interdiction of enemy movement and logistics, with close air support playing a less important role.

Van Creveld covers most of the major airpower debates of the twentieth century, lingering on the bomber vs. missile competition in the USAF in the 1950s, the use and utility of airpower in the Vietnam War, and the Boyd and Warden driven debates of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.  Unfortunately, he seems frustratingly reluctant to take a clear stand on some of these arguments.  For example, Van Creveld expresses some skepticism about the  ”Combined Bomber Offensive defeated the Luftwaffe” story, when he could and should have simply destroyed it. The story, oft told by frustrated airpower advocates who can’t point to any other concrete effects of the Combined Bomber Offensive, runs like this: British and American bombers drew German tactical fighters away from the Russian front and from the Western front, effectively granting the Russians and the Western Allies air supremacy over the battlefield.  This story sounds reasonable, until you start thinking about it.  First, sending four engine bombers deep into Germany as a lure for German fighters was a startlingly inefficient way of bringing the Luftwaffe to battle.  Allied aircraft and crew damaged or shot down over Germany remained in Germany, just as damaged German aircraft and crew remained in Germany.  This got better as the Allies adopted long range escorts, but even then the Luftwaffe could easily seize the tactical initiative,  choosing where and when to fight,  concentrating on some bomber formations while ignoring others.  The second and larger issue is that Germany was incapable of seriously contesting the air on any front past 1943. The Allied tactical and air superiority advantages would have been even larger if Britain and the United States hadn’t concentrated on 4 engine bombers. Unfortunately, Van Creveld passed up the opportunity to drive a stake through this particular myth.

In one area Van Creveld takes a stand that I found clearly unwarranted; his chapter “The Twilight of Naval Aviation” certainly sells naval aviation short. He observes, unhelpfully, that aircraft carriers have played an insignificant role in peer naval conflict between great powers since 1945, and instead has been relegated only to “limited wars.” He does extensively discuss the Falklands War, but lets his conclusion get in the way of the evidence he presents; the discussion of the role of the British carriers clearly indicates that they played a decisive role, but Van Creveld struggles to avoid openly coming to that conclusion, concentrating instead on the length of the campaign, the importance of the sinking of the General Belgrano, and the technical insufficiency of the British Harriers.  It may well be true that the United States and other countries have wasted time and money on naval aviation, but Van Creveld declares this more emphatically than he demonstrates it.

There are a few unnecessary errors. For example, Van Creveld misstates the timing of Hugh Trenchard’s shift to strategic bombing advocacy; while Trenchard eventually became an enthusiastic supporter of strategic bombing (largely in service of RAF institutional aims), he was distinctly lukewarm regarding prospects for strategic bombing during World War I.   Van Creveld’s section on interwar carrier aviation is misleading, and seems to misunderstand the impact of the naval limitation treaties on carrier design and construction.

And so Age of Airpower is a good book, but not a great book.  Van Creveld passes up a number of opportunities to make  fresh arguments about airpower, instead just hinting at a variety of interesting potential cases.  The only area in which he really grapples with controversy is the question of naval aviation, which I think he gets essentially wrong. However, his general stance on airpower seems to me largely indisputable; airpower is more limited than its military advocates have historically claimed, and civilians in Western democracies tend to habitually overestimate the effectiveness of air campaigns.  General readers new to the subject will quite likely enjoy this book, and it has points for specialists to wrestle with, although the latter will often find the volume frustrating.

Stupid or Lying: Wildly Overpaid Faculty Edition

[ 161 ] March 25, 2012 | Robert Farley

The Kaplan Test Prep Daily has determined that American faculty are overpaid:

But college costs have risen faster than inflation for three decades and, at roughly 25 percent of the average household’s income, now strain the budgets of most middle-class families. They impose an unprecedented debt burden on graduates and place college out of reach for many. This makes President Obama’s recent statement that college is “an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford” an especially urgent message.

As a career-long academic and former university chancellor, I support this position. But I disagree with the next assumption, that the answer to rising college costs is to throw more public money into the system. In fact, increased public support has probably facilitated rising tuitions. Overlooked in the debate are reforms for outmoded employment policies that overcompensate faculty for inefficient teaching schedules.

Right; the reason for the increase in college tuition is “insufficient teaching schedules,” not the massive increase in administrative costs. This is helpful; we now know that David Levy is lying about cause and effect, and can adjust our expectations for the rest of the op-ed. This is aggravated by a second (obvious) fallacy; the “insufficient” teaching time is almost invariably made up for by cheap, temporary, low cost adjunct faculty, lecturers, and grad students. Having senior faculty double their teaching load wouldn’t have faculty costs; it would simply push out the very low cost workers we now hire to fix the “shortfall.”

Though faculty salaries now mirror those of most upper-middle-class Americans working 40 hours for 50 weeks, they continue to pay for teaching time of nine to 15 hours per week for 30 weeks, making possible a month-long winter break, a week off in the spring and a summer vacation from mid-May until September.

Such a schedule may be appropriate in research universities where standards for faculty employment are exceptionally high — and are based on the premise that critically important work, along with research-driven teaching, can best be performed outside the classroom. The faculties of research universities are at the center of America’s progress in intellectual, technological and scientific pursuits, and there should be no quarrel with their financial rewards or schedules. In fact, they often work hours well beyond those of average non-academic professionals.

Unfortunately, the salaries and the workloads applied to the highest echelons of faculty have been grafted onto colleges whose primary mission is teaching, not research. These include many state colleges, virtually all community colleges and hundreds of private institutions.

Okay, so two possibilities. The first is that Levy is too stupid or ignorant to appreciate that faculty positions at most private universities and “state colleges” do in fact include research requirements, and that salaries at institutions that don’t have a research requirement are considerably lower than those at research institutions. I’ll allow it’s possible that the man is either a moron, or is ignorant of the basic structure of the profession. The other (more likely) possibility is that he’s simply lying, and expects his audience to know nary a thing about the actual structure of faculty compensation in the United States.

As I understand it, my contract is fairly common for my field; 40% teaching, 40% research, 20% service. Do the math; this means that 60% of my job performance is evaluated on terms other than teaching. I’m at an R-1 university, but I’ve seen a lot of contracts at other schools that are similar, and at schools where the research load is less the teaching load is heavier. Indeed, at UK it’s not uncommon for non-tenure track Lecturer positions to include service and research requirements, above and beyond a much heavier teaching load.

An executive who works a 40-hour week for 50 weeks puts in a minimum of 2,000 hours yearly. But faculty members teaching 12 to 15 hours per week for 30 weeks spend only 360 to 450 hours per year in the classroom. Even in the unlikely event that they devote an equal amount of time to grading and class preparation, their workload is still only 36 to 45 percent of that of non-academic professionals. Yet they receive the same compensation.

In case you’re wondering, 12-15 hours per week is a 4:4 load or a 5:5 load; I have NEVER encountered anyone able to undertake such a load on less than fifty hours per week of actual work. Indeed, I’d guess closer to sixty hours. I simply cannot believe that Levy is ignorant of this; he’s just lying. He wants his readers to believe that an assumption of 1:1 inside-outside the classroom is standard, which is simply absurd, even if faculty do their best to ignore student e-mails and grade completely through scan tron. And it should be noted that research and service requirements are ON TOP OF THIS load.

If the higher education community were to adjust its schedules and semester structure so that teaching faculty clocked a 40-hour week (roughly 20 hours of class time and equal time spent on grading, preparation and related duties) for 11 months, the enhanced efficiency could be the equivalent of a dramatic budget increase. Many colleges would not need tuition raises or adjustments to public budget priorities in the near future. The vacancies created by attrition would be filled by the existing faculty’s expanded teaching loads — from 12 to 15 hours a week to 20, and from 30 weeks to 48; increasing teachers’ overall classroom impact by 113 percent to 167 percent.

Critics may argue that teaching faculty members require long hours for preparation, grading and advising. Therefore they would have us believe that despite teaching only 12 to 15 hours a week, their workloads do approximate those of other upper-middle-class professionals. While time outside of class can vary substantially by discipline and by the academic cycle (for instance, more papers and tests to grade at the end of a semester), the notion that faculty in teaching institutions work a 40-hour week is a myth.

And again with the “ignorant or liar?” Increasing senior and tenure track faculty to a 6:6 load or 7:7 load would amount to considerably worse instruction, with considerably less cost saving than Levy would have you believe; the faculty would primarily replace low cost adjuncts and graduate students. But at least we can agree that “the notion that faculty in teaching institutions work a 40-hour week is a myth.” Levy also invokes the “but they get the summers off!” myth, as if books read themselves, articles write themselves, and syllabi organize themselves.

As it happens, I love my job and most of my colleagues like theirs.  I quite enjoy teaching, and am lucky enough to have a relatively low teaching load (although a higher service requirement than most). I wish that promotion and tenure decisions involved more consideration of teaching than they do, and I think that the way my discipline has focused on research (and the kind of research it has focused on) will prove detrimental in the long term, as state legislatures become increasingly disinterested in underwriting work that their constituents don’t give a damn about.  But Levy’s argument is simply mendacious; that Kaplan Test Prep Daily decided to give him a platform is unsurprising, but disappointing.

 

Tourney Update

[ 5 ] March 24, 2012 | Robert Farley

First, this.

Then, this.

RK ENTRY, OWNER R64 R32 S16 E8 FF NCG CHAMPION PPR TOTAL PCT
1 jmackin220 1jmackin220 240 220 240 0 0 0 UNC 880 700 98.8
1 nkschueller 1nkschueller 220 240 240 0 0 0
Missouri
320 700 98.8
3 n8fleming79 1n8fleming79 210 200 280 0 0 0 Kentucky 960 690 98.1
4 Carson the Butlerbig8tiger 220 220 240 0 0 0
Missouri
400 680 97.2
5 tb_slash 1tb_slash 230 200 240 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 670 96.0
5 sam_rodgers 1sam_rodgers 230 200 240 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 670 96.0
7 grinchgalleriesofoysterbay 1,grinchgalleriesofoysterbay 220 200 240 0 0 0 Ohio St 880 660 94.4
7 Eli Rabett 1Eli Rabett 200 220 240 0 0 0 Baylor 880 660 94.4
9 mwbugg 1mwbugg 210 200 240 0 0 0 Kentucky 960 650 92.3
9 BowenEliWJohnson 210 200 240 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 650 92.3
9 MotherZucker 1MotherZucker 210 200 240 0 0 0 UNC 880 650 92.3
9 mixingmemory 2mixingmemory 210 200 240 0 0 0 Kentucky 880 650 92.3
9 bloofography 1bloofography 230 180 240 0 0 0 Kansas 720 650 92.3
9 peachkfc 1peachkfc 210 240 200 0 0 0 Syracuse 640 650 92.3
9 Hotblack Desiatocjcarr 210 160 280 0 0 0
Missouri
400 650 92.3
9 Augusteerspdxblt 230 220 200 0 0 0
Mich St
320 650 92.3

 

On Kaplan’s “Realism”

[ 45 ] March 22, 2012 | Robert Farley

A bit more on Stephen Walt’s views of Robert Kaplan as an important “realist” voice:

There are a lot of different definitions of “realist,” and I suppose that Robert Kaplan ticks off some of the major points; he’s primarily interested in “power politics” broadly defined, and he’s skeptical of liberal internationalism.  As Justin Logan suggests, however, that’s really not enough to support Walt’s claim that Kaplan “sees the world through a realist lens.”  For my part, the most important insight that realism writ large has to offer about international politics is that balances recur, generally through some quasi-automatic mechanism.  This observation is very old, but it forms a core element of Morgenthau’s realism and of both variants of Kenneth Waltz’s realism.  It’s not at all clear to me that Kaplan accepts this; indeed, his comments about the impact of Afghanistan on US-Indian relations suggest that he doesn’t.  Suggesting that US commitment to Afghanistan will convince the Indians that the United States has sufficient resolve to face down China is all kinds of things and is surely compatible with some forms of realism, but not really the good kinds. While all but the most extreme variants of neo-realism allow that real world balancing requires some actual diplomatic and defense statecraft, it’s not particularly “realist” to claim that the long term strategic interests of three of the largest and most powerful nations in the world hinge on the extent of the US diplomatic commitment to a state that’s largely irrelevant on its own merits.  Indeed, it’s worth noting that Walt’s own work suggests that excessive concern over maintaining commitments to places like Afghanistan can have negative balancing effects.

Moreover, realists don’t normally employ the travelogue-style detail that Kaplan uses in his most well-known work; it’s not quite 100% true to say that realists don’t give a damn about “ghosts,” Balkan or otherwise, but realism as a school of thought does not depend on ancient hatreds, ideological conflicts, ethnic rifts, et al.  Focus on structural factors in explicit in Waltzian neorealism, but is at least implicit in Morgenthau and earlier realist texts.  Kaplan talks about this kind of stuff all the time, which is fine if you do it well (in my view Kaplan consistently fails to do it well), but isn’t realist. And it should further be observed, as Logan points out, that the geostrategic insights that Kaplan draws from his stories are often really, really bad.

So yeah; if something needs to be rescued, best not to offer up Robert Kaplan.

 

Foreign Entanglements: Aircraft Carriers and Such

[ 1 ] March 21, 2012 | Robert Farley

Andrew Erickson and I chat aircraft carriers and ASBMs, spurred by his latest edited volume:

From the “Is He Still Alive?” File

[ 42 ] March 20, 2012 | Robert Farley

Andrew Gelman:

Kaus is still blogging, not at Slate anymore but at Tucker Carlson’s house. Same old stuff: from the most recent entries, we have “Obama blew it” . . . “Obamacare” . . . “The more voters see of Obama, the more he drops in the polls” . . . “cocooning” . . . “digital hipsters” . . . “Ethnicity Police” . . . “John Edwards” . . . “Hollywood Liberalism” . . . the usual. (Sort of like my blog: I just cycle through the words Bayes, multilevel, rationality, voting, and Tucker Carlson.)

What happened? I blog as an extension of my real job. But is blogging [sic] all that Kaus does? I’m really surprised he didn’t write that book (and I assume he has the connections so that, if he did write the book, he could’ve found a publisher). I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with being a partisan journalist—-there’s a long and esteemed tradition of this sort of thing—-I’m just surprised Kaus isn’t doing something else. Standing in a trench throwing grenades, that’s gotta get boring after awhile.

It’s hard to say, but I suspect that even the Daily Caller is capable of eventually reaching the conclusion that Kaus is a waste of space.

Social Networking

[ 7 ] March 19, 2012 | Robert Farley

It has come to my attention that some of our readers crave additional LGM-related intellectual and emotional sustenance. Fortunately, the following resources are available in order to make LGM more of a “holistic” experience.

Here’s the LGM twitter feed:

@lefarkins

Here’s the LGM constituent twitter feeds:

Farley: @drfarls
Lemieux: @LemieuxLGM
Watkins: @djw172
Loomis: @ErikLoomis
Brockington: @dbrock27

Here’s the LGM Facebook page:

Lawyers, Guns and Money

And here are the complete LGM RSS feeds:

http://lefarkins.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/feed

Happy computing!

….[Erik]: All I’ll say about my Twitter feed is that it’s the uncensored and angry version of what you get here. Not this toned down stuff.

….[SEK]: My twitter feed just posts links to what you can already read, so if you want to see my unfettered complaints, add me on Facebook. I’m fairly easy to find: spell out my whole name and I’m the one at UCI. Just note that you’re an LGM reader and not a spam generator posing as an expensive prostitute when you send an add request.

Seapower in Culture: The Riddle of the Sands

[ 35 ] March 18, 2012 | Robert Farley

A British civil servant receives a cryptic request from an old friend, and immediately heads to Germany. The two embark on the tiny yacht Dulcibella to explore the north German coast. The stakes are uncertain; both suspect that there may be military and political happenings afoot, but neither has a solid notion of what precisely they’re looking for. Eventually, they discover the seeds of a German plan to mount a quick invasion of England, thus destroying British seapower and rebalancing global power. Fortunately, they escape in sufficient time to bring word of this plot to the British government, facilitating proper precautions.

So goes The Riddle of the Sands. This is very much a didactic novel of seapower, intended to put the lessons of Mahan into digestible form for the British public, and thence to have an effect on British policy. Riddle of the Sands was written by Erskine Childers, initially a firm believer in the British Empire who later became an enthusiastic Irish nationalist.  Childers served in the Boer War and in World War I, and died in front of an Irish Free State firing squad in 1922.  His son would later become President of Ireland.  When Riddle of the Sands was published in 1903, he remained a loyal subject of the Empire. The book was popular and influential; although the Royal Navy didn’t exactly pursue the small boat strategy Childers proposed, the novel helped elevate concern about Germany and public attention to naval affairs.

Mahan appears repeatedly in Riddle of the Sands, translated primarily through the figure of the mariner Davies.  Here’s Davies on the British government:

We’re a maritime nation—we’ve grown by the sea and live by it; if we lose command of it we starve. We’re unique in that way, just as our huge empire, only linked by the sea, is unique. And yet, read Brassey, Dilke, and those “Naval Annuals”, and see what mountains of apathy and conceit have had to be tackled. It’s not the people’s fault. We’ve been safe so long, and grown so rich, that we’ve forgotten what we owe it to. But there’s no excuse for those blockheads of statesmen, as they call themselves, who are paid to see things as they are. They have to go to an American to learn their A B C, and it’s only when kicked and punched by civilian agitators, a mere handful of men who get sneered at for their pains, that they wake up, do some work, point proudly to it, and go to sleep again, till they get another kick. By Jove! we want a man like this Kaiser, who doesn’t wait to be kicked, but works like a n—– for his country, and sees ahead.

This is a great sailing novel; I haven’t done much sailing myself, but the level of detail (supported by Childers’ own experience yachting in the North Sea and the Baltic) feels deeply authentic. Childers uses this experience to suggest an alternative vision of maritime warfare, although he doesn’t pursue this suggestion very far. Davies, our mariner, does not expect ever to serve in the Royal Navy, but hopes to contribute by carrying out a guerrilla small boat offensive in Germany’s North Sea littoral. In the novel this suggestion plays out as a red herring, with the threat of invasion emerging as the central plot difficulty. Carruthers on Davies:

It was Davies’s conviction, as I have said, that the whole region would in war be an ideal hunting-ground for small free-lance marauders, and I began to know he was right; for look at the three sea-roads through the sands to Hamburg, Bremen, Wilhelmshaven, and the heart of commercial Germany. They are like highways piercing a mountainous district by defiles, where a handful of desperate men can arrest an army.

Follow the parallel of a war on land. People your mountains with a daring and resourceful race, who possess an intimate knowledge of every track and bridle-path, who operate in small bands, travel light, and move rapidly. See what an immense advantage such guerillas possess over an enemy which clings to beaten tracks, moves in large bodies, slowly, and does not ‘know the country’. See how they can not only inflict disasters on a foe who vastly overmatches them in strength, but can prolong semi-passive resistance long after all decisive battles have been fought. See, too, how the strong invader can only conquer his elusive antagonists by learning their methods, studying the country, and matching them in mobility and cunning. The parallel must not be pressed too far; but that this sort of warfare will have its counterpart on the sea is a truth which cannot be questioned.

Davies in his enthusiasm set no limits to its importance. The small boat in shallow waters played a mighty rôle in his vision of a naval war, a part that would grow in importance as the war developed and reach its height in the final stages.

‘The heavy battle fleets are all very well,’ he used to say, ‘but if the sides are well matched there might be nothing left of them after a few months of war. They might destroy one another mutually, leaving as nominal conqueror an admiral with scarcely a battleship to bless himself with. It’s then that the true struggle will set in; and it’s then that anything that will float will be pressed into the service, and anybody who can steer a boat, knows his waters, and doesn’t care the toss of a coin for his life, will have magnificent opportunities. It cuts both ways. What small boats can do in these waters is plain enough; but take our own case. Say we’re beaten on the high seas by a coalition. There’s then a risk of starvation or invasion. It’s all rot what they talk about instant surrender. We can live on half rations, recuperate, and build; but we must have time. Meanwhile our coast and ports are in danger, for the millions we sink in forts and mines won’t carry us far. They’re fixed—pure passive defence What you want is boats—mosquitoes with stings—swarms of them—patrol-boats, scout-boats, torpedo-boats; intelligent irregulars manned by local men, with a pretty free hand to play their own game. And what a splendid game to play! There are places very like this over there—nothing half so good, but similar—the Mersey estuary, the Dee, the Severn, the Wash, and, best of all, the Thames, with all the Kent, Essex, and Suffolk banks round it. But as for defending our coasts in the way I mean—we’ve nothing ready—nothing whatsoever! We don’t even build or use small torpedo-boats. These fast “destroyers” are no good for this work—too long and unmanageable, and most of them too deep. What you want is something strong and simple, of light draught, and with only a spar-torpedo, if it came to that. Tugs, launches, small yachts—anything would do at a pinch, for success would depend on intelligence, not on brute force or complicated mechanism. They’d get wiped out often, but what matter?

But of course there are problems. First, the novel as novel isn’t that impressive; think a David Foster Wallace level of detail without any of the humanizing characteristics found in Wallace’s work. The narrator (Carruthers) is reasonable well drawn, but the rest of the characters (even Davies, Carruthers’ host) are somewhere between one and two dimensional. A romantic subplot helps drive part of the main plot, but is otherwise awkward and unnecessary. While the sailing account provides some dramatic moments, there’s never really any sense that our heroes are in physical danger; Davies is too good a seamen to have any serious trouble with the waves, wind, and sand. Plotting is poorly paced, with the central stakes revealed, then resolved, only a few pages from the end. Finally, a major hole stands athwart the plot; we are asked to believe that Germany would prepare, in secret, a major invasion of England, but would bother so little with operational security to allow a pair of Englishmen to wander about the staging grounds. I appreciate that the national security state of the early twentieth century wasn’t what it would eventually become, but I suspect that anyone acting as suspicious as Carruthers and Davies would simply be shot, with the Dulcibella suffering an unfortunate “accident.”

For all its attention to strategic issues, the operational and strategic assumptions made in The Riddle of the Sands don’t hold water. First, while it might well be possible to use small boats to land an infantry force by surprise on the English coast, it would be virtually impossible to keep that force supplied for any extent of time. Landings would of necessity be poorly coordinated, with nothing in the way of modern communications technology to link disparate positions together. The British Army wouldn’t have to be large in order to fix such positions, and indeed the Germans would be largely immobile in the face of even minimal British defenses. The British Army, relying on railroads for transport and supply, would destroy the Germans in detail. Childers gets around this problem a bit by suggesting that Germany would only attack as part of a three power coalition, the others parts of which would attack and sufficiently exhaust the Royal Navy to give the Kaiserliche Marine the ability to achieve local dominance. Childers doesn’t tell us who these coalition partners might be; perhaps Italy and Austria-Hungary, but neither could challenge the supremacy of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean, much less the North Sea. Slightly more plausible (from an operational point of view) possibilities include France and the United States, but it’s difficult to envision why either might have an interest in sacrificing its fleet for German imperial aims. If we think of Riddle of the Sands as a fantasy of unpreparedness, then we can make some productive parallels with modern fearmongering. Indeed, an alliance between France, the United States, and Imperial Germany is altogether more plausible than the Sino-Russo-Indo-Persian coalition proposed by the Heritage Foundation.

Childers’ disinterest in the mine and the submarine, not to mention his ignorance of the aircraft, are forgiveable.  These developments, especially the latter, would help make operations of the sort envisioned in the novel impossible.  They would also tend to render coastlines considerably more defensible.  Nevertheless, the vision of the strategic effectiveness of small boats operating in the littoral still carries some weight.  The appeal to maritime capability as the center of national power, and to the seafaring spirit of a people (personified in Davies) also remains a key subject of discussion.  It’s hard to say exactly what kind of modern work would awaken the same public interest in maritime affairs that Riddle of the Sands apparently evoked, but I’m pretty sure the answer isn’t Battleship.  Riddle succeeds, to the extent that it succeeds, by combining an appreciation of the strategic logic of seapower with a concrete tactical reality.  This is a difficult task; it’s difficult to imagine a Hollywood film selling the importance of the Littoral Combat Ship.  Then again, the early novels of Tom Clancy were remarkably detailed and popular, indicating that inquiry along these lines might be profitable.

Romney Cabinet Preview?

[ 22 ] March 17, 2012 | Robert Farley

Well, this is enough to drive someone to drink (even on a solemn Irish-themed religious holiday):

Land said he recently told them that Romney could win over recalcitrant conservatives by picking Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) as his vice presidential running mate and previewing a few Cabinet selections: Santorum as attorney general, Gingrich as ambassador to the United Nations and John Bolton as secretary of state.

Word is that Liz Cheney will also find a prominent home at State. I do wish that we followed “shadow government” opposition party procedures in the United States, just to help keep the electoral stakes clear…

Do Not Underestimate Joe Biden

[ 24 ] March 17, 2012 | Robert Farley

Nobody puts Joe Biden in a corner:

Before his death, Osama bin Laden boldly commanded his network to organize special cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack the aircraft of President Obama and Gen. David H. Petraeus.

“The reason for concentrating on them,” the al-Qaeda leader explained to his top lieutenant, “is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make [Vice President] Biden take over the presidency. . . . Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the U.S. into a crisis.

If there’s anything the last five years should have taught us, it’s that nobody fucks with Joe Biden and lives to tell about it.

Biden Criticized For Appearing In Hennessy Ads

Friday Linkage

[ 16 ] March 16, 2012 | Robert Farley

Some random Friday linkage:

  • I like Max Fisher; I have nothing against his family. He stands between me and Eli Lake, and that means he’s gonna get paved over.
  • Luck is gone. I really, really tried to get into it; there’s obviously a lot of talent, and perhaps they would have kept it around were it not for the whole “kills a lotta horses” part. But let’s be frank, it was extremely slow to develop, and lacked characters to focus on.
  • Adam Weinstein has a good article on the relationship between Stratfor and Robert Kaplan. I have a quote; I had hoped to wave it off as a “youthful indiscretion,” but apparently I wrote it in 2010. And to be clear, I don’t think it’s obvious that Kaplan is even a realist, and realists shouldn’t in any case be pleased that a realist of “caliber” is achieving greater prominence.
  • Sharks on yachts are 37 different kinds of awesome. This is what we lose when we casually kill off our colorful dictators.
  • Max Boot’s guiding principle is that the United States ought to fight more wars. In service of that principle, he sees little difference between truth and falsehood.  See also Leon Wielseltier.
  • Foreign Entanglements now has helpful audio, fast audio, and video subscription feeds.
  • I talked Afghanistan yesterday on the Alyona Show:

Page 5 of 343« First...34567102030...Last »
  • blogroll

  • Brad Delong
  • Crooked Timber
  • Daily Kos
  • Danger Room
  • Eschaton
  • Ezra Klein
  • Feministe
  • Talking Points Memo
  • Feministing
  • Glenn Greenwald
  • Juan Cole
  • Monkey Cage
  • Switch to our mobile site