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Author: Robert Farley

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Kherson Liberated?

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In General
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On November 9, 2022
By Oleksandr Malyon - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=109721170 Word is that the Russians are withdrawing from Kherson west of the river: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590364844053925888 This is a big deal in terms of Ukraine's long-term economic viability, and a huge defeat for Russia. That said, it...

Aftermath

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On November 9, 2022

First things first I have to strongly recommend a modified version of Erik's proposal from yesterday regarding unplugging; I turned off the wifi and put the phone on Do Not.

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Deterring the PRC

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In General
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On November 6, 2022
Some thoughts on an exceedingly dangerous policy idea... By 星海军事 - Own work, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=89849478 Deterrence is a difficult and complex thing; often we don’t know if a competitor has been deterred, or simply did not intend to do the thing that we don’t like....
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By Toby Ord - Own work, CC BY-SA 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=271348 I offer some holiday cheer... Over the past 25 years, the international appeal of Halloween seems to have grown exponentially, with peoples around the world grasping the appeal of dressing up likely a sexy monster in order to...

Tragedy in Seoul

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On October 29, 2022

By travel oriented - Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=110930821 Still developing but the numbers look horrible: At least 120 people were killed and 100 more were injured after being crushed.

The Letter

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On October 28, 2022

The Letter from the CPC is fading into obscurity but I did have a few thoughts... The letter echoed a familiar refrain about the need for diplomacy to settle the war between.

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Welcome to the Shit Show

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In General
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On October 25, 2022
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=clusterfuck The letter that Paul referred to yesterday has been withdrawn: https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1584940379706511363 Word is that some enthusiastic staffers (possibly in conjunction with the Quincy Institute) did some freelancing on a letter than was not ready for primetime, which is probably why some of the signatories...

On Expectations Management

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On October 23, 2022

John Sides brings some modeling: https://twitter.com/johnmsides/status/1583515978457288704?s=20&t=OlvuYoFNsmgd7cqDwlRMag Since 1994 the party controlling the Presidency has tended to suffer catastrophic midterm results, with the two biggest exceptions being 1998 (where the GOP.

RAF Typhoon, By SAC Tim Laurence - Photo http://www.defenceimagery.mod.uk/fotoweb/fwbin/download.dll/45153802.jpgMetadata source: http://www.defenceimagery.mod.uk/fotoweb/fwbin/fotoweb_isapi.dll/ArchiveAgent/5042/Search?FileInfo=1&MetaData=1&Search=45160576.jpg, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=51971731 Not generally supportive of aggressive use of non-compete agreements, but there are exceptions: China has recruited.

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