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Seapower in Culture: Civilization IV

[ 40 ] April 22, 2012 | Robert Farley

The Civilization series of games is in some sense ideal for depicting the influence of seapower on history.  Civilization connects geography, technology, and economic power to military capability, requiring a player to formulate a coherent grand strategy based on factor endowment and international constraints. The system favors (even demands) the construction of empire, often across a series of unconnected landmasses. Every Civ player has his or her favorite edition, and favorite set of stories from that version.  I haven’t yet acquired Civilization V, and so this analysis will concentrate on Civilization IV: Beyond the Sword, and will focus mainly on solitary play. Beyond the Sword is in many ways a deeply Mahanian game; building a proxy-governed extra-territorial empire is strongly supported, and in many cases even required for victory. Seapower is often key to acquiring (through conquest or colonization) and maintaining this empire.  The questions relevant to this series are as follows:

1. To what extent are the depictions of seapower accurate in tactical and operational terms?

2. How does seapower fit into broader national grand strategy in social, economic, and military terms?

3. What could we learn about seapower from playing a few dozen 47 hour games of Civ IV on “Epic” timeframe at  ”Prince” difficulty?

On the accuracy question…

The game abstracts the bulk of the history of naval technology, with ships progressing along two lines until the modern era.  The troops ships run galleys to galleons to transports, while the warships run trireme to caravel (which does have some rump transport capacity) to frigate (and the mostly useless Ironclad and Ship of the Line units) to destroyer. In the earliest period ships are limited to coastal squares, leaving large portions of the map off limits, or at least difficult to find. Ships (like all other units) require no direct logisitical support. Although all military units produce a drain on national resources, individual units require no specific base of resupply.  This means, in the early and middle game, that a galley or caravel can leave its home port and not return for millenia, at which point it is promptly converted into a frigate or galleon. Early game units are unaffected by weather or sea conditions; there are no trade winds or similar phenomena to drive commerce and naval action into particular maritime “highways.”

The naval aspects become more interesting as the game progresses. A good primer on late game naval tactics is available here. As that primer suggests, however, the principles that apply to naval combat in the real world (and to naval industrial policy) don’t always apply in Civ.  Concentration, for example, has some value, but it’s generally very easy for a fleet to avoid direct conflict with an enemy stack of doom.  Indeed, it might well be correct to suggest that Civ follows Mahan less than Corbett.

However, since Civilization II air and sea combat have not been well integrated with one another.  The most obvious problem is that air units (apart from cruise missiles) cannot destroy sea units at sea, and cannot damage them in port.  This can prove extremely frustrating when a fleet of transports show up near your coast, and can’t be destroyed despite heavy air superiority.  Indeed, even having surface naval units available doesn’t always help, given the limit on numbers of attacks per turn. These limits are designed to preserve game balance (otherwise air units dominate the game), but they do detract from late game verisimilitude.

In Civ IV naval units have fewer ways of influencing shore events than in some previous editions.  Shore bombardment doesn’t destroy improvements, limiting the utility of wandering an enemy coast and laying waste.  Similarly, shore bombardment only destroys “cultural” fortification of cities, leaving the cities themselves (and their defending units) undamaged. Again, there are game balance reasons for this, but the decision limits the impact of naval superiority.

Nevertheless, in the late game stacks of amphibious doom can be truly devastating. Destroyers and battleships destroy the fortifications of coastal cities, cruise missiles and fighters wear down defending units, and marines destroy defending units.  It is extremely difficult to defend coastal cities against such stacks, and even the temporary loss of a major city can have dreadful economic effects.  Moreover, if the attacker doesn’t expect to hold but simply prefers to punish, even critical, millenia old cities can be burned to the ground.

And then there are the quibbles.  Missile cruisers could (and should) have far greater air defense capabilities, and indeed air defense should be an allowable promotion.  Something along the lines of an amphibious warship, with limited capabilities for carrying both air and land units, would be quite nice. Damaged vessels could move more slowly (as they did in Civ II), and a variety of other small tweaks could be introduced that would make the naval campaign more interesting without fundamentally unbalancing the game.

And the grand strategy question…

Seapower is important to many games of Civ. As all players know, one of the most rewarding parts of the game is exploration of the full map.  Different maps produce radically different constellations of military necessity; seapower is critical to some, but not all of these. I find that the most interesting naval contests happen with mediumish continents rather than archipelagos, mostly because archipelago cities rarely achieve the degree of industrial capacity necessary to the construction of massive fleets.

Nevertheless, Civ IV lacks a coherent economic theory of seapower. The role of trade in particular is abstracted, except in the case of a few critical resources.  To be sure, the game does allow a certain degree of economic destruction from the sea; positioning a ship in a city’s resource zone prevents the utilization of those and surrounding tiles, and raiders can cause a lot of damage to maritime resource infrastructure. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to cause critical damage to an economy through maritime means because there’s little underlying theory of how maritime trade undergirds the international economy.

It’s also unclear how naval power affect reputation in Civ IV.  In many games, I’ve never quite figured out how AI empires assess military power, but my best guess is that they aggregate, rather than divide between land, air and seapower.  Similarly, it’s not clear that the AI can assess its own vulnerability to different kinds of military power.  This may mean that you can build a world-beating fleet, yet not get taken seriously by the AI (or perhaps get taken too seriously) because of land power deficiencies.  This would operate much differently in a multiplayer game, of course. Still, Civ models the reputational and social effects of naval power poorly, if at all. We know that a Chinese aircraft carrier (or, in an earlier era, a Brazilian dreadnought) has a social and symbolic import that goes beyond its strict military value; reputation is an important consideration for naval procurement.

Overall, the lack of a strong economic underpinning to the Civ maritime system remains problematic.  A submarine oriented sea denial campaign can surely have some success, but it can only very, very rarely “starve” a nation in the sense of the Battle of the Atlantic or the Royal Navy blockade of Germany in World War I.  Cutting off a critical resource such as iron or oil is sometimes possible, but requires a tremendous, long term effort.  Perhaps most importantly, there is no such thing as an anti-commerce strategy.  All ships, even transports, are state owned military assets; there are no tramp freighters to sink or whaling ships to seize.  This cuts out a crucial component of naval warfare since the Age of Sail, and incidentally makes a “sea denial” or raiding strategy by an overmatched opponent considerably less rewarding.

And the lessons…

What applicable lessons could be learned from Civ IV? Very little in tactical or operational terms, obviously.  That aircraft carriers do better when escorted by destroyers and missile cruisers doesn’t tell us very much, although I suppose it might serve as introduction to the concept “carrier battle group” for someone new to seapower theory.  Similarly, the lack of basing or supply requirements completely abstracts most interesting operational concepts.  Civ IV has great difficulty explaining why base proximity could allow Japan to accept a 10:10:6 ratio, or why the Russian Baltic Fleet was so ragged when it finally arrived at Tsushima.

Of strategic lessons I can think of two.  The first is the reality of helplessness when, in fact, your empire faces a Turn Without Seapower.  Ships take a while to build, and when an enemy fleet shows up on your door either to raid or to land, it can cause immense (often decisive) damage before you get a chance to do anything about it. Fortunately wars can last centuries, so if you survive first contact there’s often the opportunity to get revenge.  The second, related, is the broader connection between industrial capacity and seapower. Cities have to be built or seized with an eye to how they fit into a broader national strategy, which of necessity includes seapower considerations. Decisions about improvements in particular coastal cities (whether to build a drydock, or how much to invest in finishing a factory) also work better when informed by a broad consideration of grand strategy.

What sort of introduction does Civ provide to seapower novices? The lack of a clear connection between maritime commerce and seapower is problematic. Ships exist primarily to destroy other ships, rather than to play a regulatory role. The lack of a good theory of logistics also produces misleading conclusions. While some navies can indeed operate effectively at extreme distance from their industrial bases, this is not true of all organizations. That said, a complex system of logistics would probably detract from enjoyment of the game. With regard to ship types, Civ isn’t particularly instructive in terms of the roles and capabilities of the real life counterparts of game units. All that said, the need for naval power on most maps (and the complexity of building and maintaining an advanced fleet) could serve as a foundation for an interest in naval affairs, or at least of an appreciation of the role that navies play in a grand strategic framework.

Foregone Conclusion

[ 5 ] April 21, 2012 | Robert Farley

So I walk into the house, turn on the TV, and say to DJW (who’s in Lexington this weekend) “Oh, hey; we get to watch the Red Sox bullpen blow an eight run lead”. And there you go. If only this prescience had been operative at Keeneland today. Indeed, DJW’s “Hey, this 50-1 longshot actually looks kinda good; maybe I should put a bet on him?” followed by a prohibitively long period of inertia will endure in LGM lore.

Remembering Our Most Glorious War

[ 64 ] April 20, 2012 | Robert Farley

Relentlessly, the calendar grinds toward the event which could tear this blog apart, the bicentenary of the War of 1812.  The loyal American contributors to this blog will surely commemorate the triumphs of that war to maintain freedom against the perfidious, vengeful British and their Canadian lackeys.  The less loyal Americans…. well, we shall see.  In any case, here is a helpful blog that chronicles the march to war.  The treacherous Anglo-Canadian Provocation of the Day for April 20, 1812 comes in a letter from Governor General Sir George Prevost to Lord Liverpool:

[Peace loving American activities] have induced me to accept the services of 500 Canadian youth, to be formed into a corps of light infantry or voltigeurs.  As soon as the organization of the militia is en train, I propose visiting Upper Canada to concert with Major-General Brock a general plan of offensive and defensive operations in the event of the democratic spirit of the United States having put the dispute beyond the bounds of accommodation.

Yes; hardly surprising the Anglo-Canadian Axis would view America’s democratic spirit as putting the dispute “beyond the bounds of accommodation.” Truly, they do hate us for our freedom.

F-35 and What Not

[ 19 ] April 19, 2012 | Robert Farley

I talked Afghanistan and naval procurement policy with Alyona last night. The latter starts around 5:35.

And if you listen closely around the 4:30 mark you can hear my daughters screaming at each other.

Three Ns. One T. Not Difficult.

[ 137 ] April 18, 2012 | Robert Farley

I appreciate that spell trolling Matt Yglesias is the lowest form of blogging, but in this post he spells “Cincinnati” three different ways. All of them are wrong:

And yes, one of those misspellings reads “Cleveland.”

268!

[ 32 ] April 18, 2012 | Robert Farley

Congrats to Jamie Moyer on his 268th major league victory:

Moyer earned that elusive win for the ages in his third start of the season. His age is 49 years, 150 days old. That’s important to note since before Moyer’s effort, the oldest pitcher to win a game in the majors was Jack Quinn of the Brooklyn Dodgers on Sept. 13, 1932, when he was 49 years, 70 days old.

Not that Moyer knows much about Quinn. ”I wish I was a baseball historian,” Moyer said. “I’m a little embarrassed to admit that. As players, we should know more about the game, the history of the game. You need to respect the game and the people that came before you.”

Moyer is currently 1st among active pitchers in:

Wins
Inning pitched
Game started
Home runs allowed
Hits allowed
Losses
Earned runs allowed
Batters faced
Putouts as pitcher
Assists as pitcher

But only 44th in strikeouts.

This is Why Alabama Can’t Have Nice Things

[ 42 ] April 17, 2012 | Robert Farley

This would never happen at Oregon:

A piece of history from the University of Alabama’s championship run was shattered on Saturday afternoon following the Crimson Tide’s annual A-Day scrimmage.

Alabama’s $30,000 crystal BCS trophy shattered into little pieces on Saturday when a player’s father tripped on a rug and knocked over the display table.
The Coaches’ Trophy from this season’s BCS national title was accidentally knocked off its podium and shattered by a player’s father whose foot got caught on a rug that sits beneath the trophy display. The Waterford crystal trophy was on display in the Mal Moore Athletic Facility halls, home to coach Nick Saban’s office and other athletic personnel.

Turn the trophy into a bong? Maybe. Let someone knock it over and break it? Never.

Foreign Entanglements: Sanctions Part Deux

[ 1 ] April 16, 2012 | Robert Farley

Mark Dubowitz (Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies) and I follow up the sanctions conversation that Matt and Michael Singh started last week:

Foreign Entanglements: Sanctions Now, Sanctions Tomorrow, Sanctions Forever?

[ 1 ] April 13, 2012 | Robert Farley

Michael Singh and Matt Duss have a very good conversation on Iran sanctions policy in the latest Foreign Entanglements:


With any luck, Mark Dubowitz of FDD and I will be having a conversation early next week on the same topic.

Clinton and the Cooperative Strategy

[ 9 ] April 12, 2012 | Robert Farley

Hillary Clinton spoke at the United States Naval Academy on Tuesday, touching on relations with North Korea and China. In light of the failure of the latest DPRK test, these comments were of some interest.  More important to my mind, however, was the extent to which Clinton adopted the Navy’s framework for thinking about US grand strategy in the Asia Pacific.  I have a piece up at Foreign Policy arguing such:

But the delivery of this speech as part of the Forrestal Lecture Series at the United States Naval Academy was no accident. Clinton was not shy about connecting the Asian pivot with Secretary of Defense James V. Forrestal and with the Navy, as the speech made clear that the primary responsibility for managing military affairs in the Asia Pacific region will fall on the Navy, with the U.S. Air Force presumably playing a significant supporting role. The critical insight came in discussion of the nature of U.S. Navy responsibility; Clinton lauded not the Navy’s combat capability in the manner of Alfred T. Mahan, but rather emphasized that the Navy helps shape the contours of political conflict in the Asia Pacific through a wide variety of means, not least direct contact with regional navies. According to Clinton, “each year U.S. Navy ships, and sailors and marines, participate in more than 170 bilateral and multilateral exercises, and conduct more than 250 port visits in the region. … This allows us to respond more quickly and efficiently when we have to work together with partners.” She invoked the partnership between the U.S. Navy and its Japanese counterpart, the Maritime Self Defense Force, in the wake of the Kobe earthquake as fruit of the multilateral policy. The U.S. Navy’s ability to conduct multifaceted relief operations in the Asia Pacific littoral (a capability that the Chinese Navy currently lacks) highlights the persistent utility of a U.S. leadership role; the U.S. Navy effectively makes itself an indispensible part of any major multilateral maritime operation. Clinton repeatedly invoked themes of maritime security as a positive-sum game, partnership building, freedom of navigation, and multilateral dispute resolution.

It’ll Be Like “Jade” Plus “Braveheart,” Only with Jews!

[ 59 ] April 11, 2012 | Robert Farley

And it appears that world has been spared denied this extremely compelling Mel Gibson-Joe Eszterhas collaboration:

Hollywood screenwriter Joe Eszterhas is accusing Mel Gibson, his recent collaborator on a movie about Jewish revolt, of “hating Jews” and using him to deflect his anti-Semitic reputation.

In an explosive nine-page letter to Gibson obtained by TheWrap, the screenwriter wrote that the director of “The Passion of the Christ” never intended to make the movie about Jewish heroism, called “The Maccabees.” Instead, Eszterhas said, Gibson announced the project “in an attempt to deflect continuing charges of anti-Semitism which have dogged you, charges which have crippled your career.” He added: “I’ve come to the conclusion that the reason you won’t make ‘The Maccabees’ is the ugliest possible one. You hate Jews.”

TheWrap reported earlier that Warner Bros. has put the controversial project on hold, and rejected Eszterhas’s script as lacking in “a sense of triumph.”

A spokesman for Gibson had no immediate comment.

Tag this “even the train wreck is not enough”…

Democratic Responsibility for the Republican War on Women

[ 61 ] April 10, 2012 | Robert Farley

It’s very difficult to describe the layers of stupid that went into this article:

But Democrats have not merely been horrified bystanders wringing their hands as this “war” has unfolded. The Democratic Party has actively encouraged the GOP’s descent into antifeminism. And though Democrats have reaped considerable gains from the fallout, their efforts have often ultimately been to the detriment of the country’s women…

It’s worth noting, however, that the Democratic Party has had no interest in trying to cool partisan debate over women’s issues, and every interest in making sure that no significant Republican feminist position emerges. The episode that best illustrates the Democratic approach in this regard was the successful effort to end the political career of Maryland Republican Congresswoman Connie Morella.

Morella, a former English professor and state legislator who also managed to raise nine children, was one of the leading feminists in Congress and among the most liberal House Republicans. She sponsored important legislation on domestic violence and women’s health, while opposing conservatives on gun control, gay rights, conservation, and abortion. She was also one of only six Republicans to vote against authorizing George W. Bush’s military action in Iraq. Her ability to work across the aisle made her a key player in bipartisan reform coalitions. But after Republicans took control of the House in 1994, Morella’s representation of some of Washington D.C.’s most affluent and liberal suburbs made her one of the Democrats’ leading targets. The Democratic-controlled Maryland legislature redrew her district to ensure that, as the state senate president gloated, “If she runs, she loses.”

Why yes; Republican anti-feminism is bad, but when Democrats point out that the Republican Party is viciously anti-feminist, it’s almost as bad. And when Democrats field “candidates” that will “run against” moderate Republicans, well, they pretty much take responsibility for the existence of Rick Santorum. It would be more appropriate if Democrats refrained from pointing out that Republicans are anti-feminist, and avoided fielding candidates against “moderate” Republicans.

Seriously, someone had to think of this, someone else had to think “Why, that’s insightful,” and someone else still had to actually post it to the website.

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