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Maybe the White Walkers?

[ 116 ] February 14, 2013 | Robert Farley

It’s not quite accurate to say that bureaucrats will do anything to protect budgets, as the relationship between turf, autonomy, resources, and organizational behavior is complex. Nevertheless, as a general first guess it’s usually not wrong to believe that bureaucrats will significantly stretch reality in order to defend their access to resources. Senior military officers (bureaucrats in uniform) will consequently say and do all manner of things in order to protect budgets; dramatically withdrawing an aircraft carrier from deployment, making dire warnings about the impact of mild cuts to the biggest defense budget in the history of the world, etc. In general, it’s best not to get too irritated about such things, because it is, after all, part of the job of a bureaucrat to protect his or her organization. In that vein, and to remind us that resource-driven threat inflation is not a peculiarly American phenomenon, I offer this:

Military experts said Sweden was probably unable to defend itself on its own in the event of an invasion, in a report published Thursday, saying the armed forces lacked necessary resources.

“Can We Defend Ourselves For a Week?” the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences asked in the title of its report.

Sweden is not a member of NATO and has a policy of military non-alliance, though it does participate in the Alliance’s Partnership for Peace program.

The report echoed comments made by Sweden’s chief of the armed forces, Sverker Goeranson, in the media in early January, when he said the Scandinavian country would be able to hold off an attack for only “about a week” following repeated cuts to the defense budget. Goeranson has been on sick leave for exhaustion since making his remarks.

The academy’s study, conducted in 2011 and 2012, supported his analysis of the situation.

“We think the military does not have a credible ability to defend all of Sweden … In the event of a possible attack against Sweden, we would always need help from abroad,” it wrote. “We think that the authorities should rapidly carry out a study on the conditions and possibilities of obtaining such assistance so that any potential crisis in the Baltic region can quickly be resolved, thereby avoiding any act of war from being undertaken.”

If you’re wondering “who is planning to invade Sweden?”, let me remind you that the Finns are never, ever to be trusted.

F-35 Got Issues

[ 14 ] February 14, 2013 | Robert Farley

I have a second Diplomat piece this week, this time on the ongoing troubles with the F-35:

Perhaps more importantly, rules of engagement are inherently political.  Civilian leaders, and their politically attuned senior military counterparts, will draw up guidelines for combat in context of political, not military, necessity. If the F-35 can only operate successfully in BVR (Beyond Visual Range) context (and to be sure the networking capability of the F-35 make “BVR” a different proposition than with past aircraft), and if the civilians restrict the ability of the aircraft to operate under such conditions, then the utility of the fighter comes into grave question.  This question is hardly academic, as potential peer competitors of the U.S.(including Russia and China) will undoubtedly take political steps to limit the ability of the F-35 to fight at full capability. Again, this may be even more true of the partner countries in the F-35 program, which often suffer from more rigorous political restrictions that U.S. forces.

The larger problem is that none of today’s major players have serious experience with fighting high end aerial combat against an advanced peer competitor.  Most sophisticated air forces have invested heavily inexperimental learning, in the form of Red Flag and its various clones around the world.  These efforts place air forces light years ahead of their 1960s counterparts, which found (in the case of the United States in Vietnam) that actual air combat bore little resemblance either to earlier wars or to extant theoretical studies. Nevertheless, even the best experimental learning settings cannot replace experiential learning; combat in real war conditions, beset by all of the political baggage that necessarily afflicts military operations. Investing in an aircraft that can only maximize its potential in a particular, unusual political environment carries serious risk, and at the very least operators need to work out the implications of operations across the spectrum of political commitments.

Best option at this point, I think, may be a relatively small F-35 buy combined with purchases of advanced models of legacy aircraft.

Hoth Revisited

[ 88 ] February 13, 2013 | Robert Farley

Danger Room has convened a symposium re-evaluating Imperial strategy and military performance at the Battle of Hoth. My own contribution was simply a translation (with the assistance of former Patterson School student Patrick Davey) of the evaluation of Captain Giage Gentis, professor of military history at the Imperial Naval Academy, and author of several books on Imperial history, including How Effective is a Death Star? and Wrong Clones: The Empire’s Deadly Rejection of the Fett Corps.

Take a look.

“”I Felt a Great Disturbance in the Commonwealth, as if Millions of Voices Suddenly Cried Out in Terror”

[ 14 ] February 13, 2013 | Robert Farley

Well, this is an issue:

An MRI on Kentucky Wildcats forward Nerlens Noel revealed he tore the ACL in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season. The talented freshman was injured in Tuesday night’s loss to the Florida Gators. Kentucky medical staff said surgery is expected in the next two to three weeks.

The 6-foot-10 Noel landed awkwardly on his left knee and then slammed the knee into the basket support after chasing down Florida’s Mike Rosario on a fast break and blocking the shot with 8:03 left in No. 25 Kentucky’s 69-52 loss to the seventh-ranked Gators. Noel immediately grabbed his left knee and screamed in pain. Trainers rushed to his side and Calipari eventually came over and stayed with Noel until he was carried off the court by several teammates.

Two weeks ago it looked like the Ducks were on autopilot and the Wildcats improving; after dropping three of four the Ducks have work to do, and the Cats are now in very serious trouble. On the much more important question of the future of Nerlens Noel’s career, see Pat Forde. While the “one-and-done” formula represents the best possible solution under current rules, it still creates huge risks for young athletes with marketable skills.

Nork Nukes Redux

[ 6 ] February 13, 2013 | Robert Farley

My latest at the Diplomat expresses skepticism that the North Korean nuclear test is something to get all that excited about:

The first and most important lesson is that North Korean policy towards its neighbors does not appear to have appreciably changed in Kim Jong Il’s wake. North Korea continues to test ballistic missiles, it continues to test nuclear devices, and it continues to decay socially, economically, and in terms of the conventional military balance.  North Korea is stuck on the wrong side of history, and the detonation of 1950s era nuclear devices does nothing to solve that problem.

Foreign Entanglements: Hybrid Warfare Edition

[ 0 ] February 12, 2013 | Robert Farley

On this week’s episode of Foreign Entanglements, Pete Mansoor and I talk Hybrid Warfare:


Haven’t had a chance to write a review of the book, but it’s quite good; highly recommended.

Nukes!

[ 55 ] February 11, 2013 | Robert Farley

Early, but looks as if the Norks may have just “expended some fissile material.” Jeffrey Lewis thinks maybe 10kt (probably bigger than either of the previous two tests), but obviously it’s too soon to say what or how big.  And of course it could just be an earthquake…

I Say “Back to Avignon!”

[ 229 ] February 11, 2013 | Robert Farley

Well, this doesn’t happen every day:

Pope Benedict XVI, the former Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger who took office in 2005 following the death of his predecessor, said on Monday that he will resign on Feb. 28, the first pope to do so in six centuries.

A profoundly conservative figure whose papacy was overshadowed by sexual abuse scandals in the Roman Catholic Church, the pope, 85, said that after examining his conscience “before God, I have come to the certainty that my strengths, due to an advanced age, are no longer suited to an adequate exercise” of his position as head of the world’s Roman Catholics.

While there had been questioning about his health and advancing years, his announcement — even by the Vatican’s official account — stunned many. “The pope took us by surprise,” said Vatican spokesman Federico Lombardi, who explained that many cardinals were in Rome on Monday for a ceremony at the Vatican and heard the pope’s address.

As a disinterested observer, I have to say that establishment of a norm of retirement for aging, incapacitated popes seems like an altogether good idea. And also, of course, I like the idea of something happening that hasn’t happened for six centuries; makes me feel special.

Why Don’t You Take this Opportunity to Start a War?

[ 11 ] February 8, 2013 | Robert Farley

In honor of the impending destruction of the Northeast:

Warning: Engaging in many of the activities depicted in this video will probably result in the loss of fingers, toes, and limbs.

Foreign Entanglements: The Hagelian Dialectic

[ 6 ] February 7, 2013 | Robert Farley

On this week’s episode of Foreign Entanglements, Matt speaks with Yousef Manayyer about Israel, Palestine, and Chuck Hagel:

I’m Sure that the Sequel to Chinese Democracy is Coming Along

[ 6 ] February 6, 2013 | Robert Farley

Happy 51st birthday to Axl Rose…

IP and Military Diffusion

[ 8 ] February 5, 2013 | Robert Farley

In this week’s Diplomat column I return to a topic of interest, intellectual property and military diffusion:

  1. The nature of intellectual property theft in the military sphere will change. Rather than purchasing (or otherwise appropriating) entire systems and then reverse engineering, future theft will likely involve cyber-attacks on states, companies, and even the law firms that protect patents.
  2. While states such as India, China, and Russia have had strong incentives to defect from intellectual property compliance in the past, their status as producers and exporters will increasingly make them IP defenders, in general. In specific instances, however, they will continue to pursue the appropriation of critical foreign technologies, often through illicit means.
  3. There is potential for cooperation between the major arms producers on an international IP compliance regime, which would set guidelines or “rules of the road” for export. However, continuing political and strategic disagreement between these producers will limit the overall impact of such a regime.

I’ll be coming back to this issue, particularly on questions of how intellectual property law will affect patterns of military technology diffusion.

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