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Author Page for Dave Brockington

Born in San Jose, grew up in Seattle, received a Ph.D. in poli sci from University of Washington, worked for three years at Universiteit Twente in Enschede, Netherlands, and have worked at the University of Plymouth for eight academic years now in Plymouth, United Kingdom.

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Burrowing Out of Hibernation, Jetlagged Saturday Sporting Edition

[ 43 ] August 3, 2013 |

The Ashes As it’s my role here to spearhead LGM’s cornering the “progressive blogosphere market on cricket commentary” (as per our FAQ), my absence is letting the team down. I was able to follow the first two tests of the series, but only sporadically the current match.

England were highly regarded as likely winners of the 2013 Ashes, and currently hold a 2-0 advantage in the series. Given the rules governing the “winning” of this cricket series, all England have to do in order to retain the trophy is draw a single match of the remaining three. Which is good, as they’re struggling mightily in the third test. Australia scored 527 for 7 (declared) in their first innings, while England have only managed to reply with 294 for 7. In declaring with three wickets remaining, Australia signalled extreme confidence in winning this test. Today, an increasingly rare century by Kevin Pieterson has given England faint hope for a draw. To accomplish that they need to hope that they can spin out the 23 remaining wickets over two days, and this assumes that they manage to avoid Australia forcing the follow-on. The second test, July 18-22, was relatively boring. England held Australia to only 128 runs in their first innings, declared after seven wickets in their second, and ultimately won by 347 runs. Following the second test, the English media featured stories crowing about the possibility of a 5-0 whitewash, save for the occasional “erm, hang on” such as this piece by England wicket-keeper Matt Prior arguing that Australia are somehow invincible in the third test of a series. It appears that Prior’s bizarre hypothesis is receiving support.

The first test, however, featured history and drama (and several other lazy cliches as well). Ashton Agar, playing in his first test match for Australia at 19, scored 98 runs in the first innings. This would be merely noteworthy for the debutant, but he did it from the number 11 position in the batting order, and set the test cricket record for runs scored as the number 11 batsman. There are 11 to a team in cricket, and like baseball, usually the least good batter gets the final spot in the order. A very rough analogy would be for a pitcher in a National League game (or ballpark in this day and age of interleague play) to hit for the cycle with a grand slam, but this analogy only works if it’s never been done before. I haven’t done the research to know if it has. Regardless, Agar did not bat 11th in the second innings.

England began the fifth and final day of the first test with a lead of 137 runs, needing only four wickets to secure victory against Australia’s 8th through 11th order batsmen. What at first seemed impossible became progressively in sight for Australia as the ineffectiveness of the England bowling attack allowed the “tail end” of the batting order to score runs with ease. Then, with England only needing one wicket, while Australia were only 20 runs behind, the bizarre that only cricket can produce happened. They broke for lunch. They had played for the better part of five days, scored 1,152 combined runs, the end of this marathon was in sight, and . . . lunch. Again, to make a rough baseball comparison, it’s the bottom of the ninth, the home team down by one, bases loaded, two outs, and the pitcher is batting. Let’s take a break? Seriously?

Somehow lunch did the trick, as Australia only managed six more runs before surrendering their final wicket.

Clint Dempsey I woke this morning at 530 PDT to strange rumors. Seattle Sounders FC were going to sign Clint Dempsey from Tottenham. Dempsey is probably the best player on the USMNT at present, at the peak of his career, well regarded in England, and has demonstrated his ability at the highest level in five and a half seasons at Fulham plus the one at Spurs. Initially, I didn’t understand this move from either perspective. Spurs only just signed him a year ago for £6 million, and he was a regular feature in their starting XI. From Dempsey’s perspective, while I’m more generous in my assessment on the level of play in the MLS than a lot of people, why would one want to take that step down at this point in his career? Only a year ago, Spurs, Aston Villa, and Liverpool were competing to sign him from Fulham.

Then it started to make sense. Spurs have agreed a fee for Spain international striker Roberto Soldado from Valenica for £26 million, in addition to Brazilian midfielder Paulinho (Corinthians, £17 million) and Belgian winger Nacer Chadli from FC Twente for £7 million. Dempsey’s playing time suddenly looks to be attenuated as Tottenham played him in both a winger and striker role. With Brazil 2014 only a year away, he needs to play. And, in addition to the roughly $9 million MLS record transfer fee, the Sounders are reportedly going to pay Dempsey $8 million per season over a four year contract — another MLS record.

As a supporter of both Seattle and Arsenal, I’m pleased with this move. As a supporter of the USMNT, I’m not. Dempsey should play in a better league (but then, too, so should Landon Donovan).

42 Finally, on the flight from LHR to SFO yesterday, my wife woke me when 42 came on the screen. I rarely watch what’s shown on the plane, but as a fan of baseball, cinema, and baseball*cinema, I watched. It was mediocre: slow, boring, thin saccharine sentimental crap. This review from the CSM sums it up best: “given the full halo treatment” and “the filmmaking is TV-movie-of-the-week dull and Robinson’s ordeal is hammered home to the exclusion of virtually everything else in his life.”

That said, two things about the film were superb. First, the CGI rendering of the old ballparks is stunning (Ebbets of course, but also Shibe, Crosley, and Forbes). Stunning to me at least, who has really only experienced these parks through the several books on ballparks that are in my library, pictures, and various clips. Second, and a pleasant surprise, is John McGinley’s turn as Red Barber. I’ve heard clips of Barber calling games, and watched Game 7 of the 1952 World Series on YouTube’s MLB Classics. He was also on Morning Edition every Friday until he died in October 1992; I was a regular listener. It’s difficult to forget Jenny Newtson’s announcement of his death one Friday morning on KLCC (yes, I had the “experience” of living in Eugene for a year in 1992) following several weeks worth of Barber’s absences on Morning Edition. I also bought Fridays with Red by Bob Edwards (and had Edwards sign it). McGinley’s performance in that role gives some vitality to what are essentially second-hand experiences of Barber.

Adendum of Questionable Relevance I’ve been away from here for a couple months, as a lot happened in a short period of time.  The house I’ve owned in Plymouth for nine years finally sold; after a series of desultory offers, I finally accepted a good one in May. I’ve had about 15 odd lodgers in there over the years, which resulted in a lot of work to get it ready and a lot of junk that I didn’t recognise yet inherited. A three week visit by my wife and step daughter (who live in Oregon) coincided with the finalization of the sale, so she was able to help with the packing and moving to the new flat.

Second, I served at the officiant at the wedding of dear friends in Corvallis, Oregon in early July. It was the greatest honor I’ve had, and the most difficult thing I’ve ever had to write or deliver. But at least my formal title is now Reverend Dr., and once that knighthood or peerage comes though, I’ll have the trifecta.

Last, eerily demonstrating the prescience of this post of mine from March,[*] my home institution announced a radical restructuring in May of how we deliver our curriculum, university wide, beginning Autumn 2014. I’d love to write about this development, but it’s perhaps not in the interests of my continued employment to take this on at the present time. It did help inspire me to stand down as “programme manager” of the undergraduate program after seven years in that administrative role.

[*] A couple months ago, in the pub, a colleague from a different department mentioned having read the post linked above, and noted approvingly that I didn’t specify my home institution (but it’s not like it’s, you know, a state secret difficult to obtain). He said that the post perfectly described the management motivation for this new curriculum delivery initiative. Which is sad, in a way.

North Carolina

[ 60 ] May 12, 2013 |

Two articles on North Carolina came to my attention this morning. First, it appears that NC is convulsing with the same sort of protests that ground Wisconsin to a halt and led to sweeping progressive change:

Raging grannies, student groups, professors, internationally known physicians, historians, members of the NAACP, all are coming together to protest at the General Assembly of North Carolina and to place themselves at risk of arrest. Acts of civil disobedience have swept Raleigh, the state capital, and are planned to recur well into the future. Blame it all on the Tea Party.

Four months ago, Tea Party candidates took over the state government–both chambers of the General Assembly, as well as the governorship. Together, the newly elected office holders have been hellbent on eviscerating every social program they can get their hands on in the name of doing “the people’s business.”

I don’t consider myself an expert on protest politics, but I do include a section on it in a class I teach. What I know is that protest politics are good at raising the visibility of an issue (or basket of related issues), and might nudge public opinion. In the American context, that’s usually the best result one can aspire to. What it almost certainly will not lead to is the Pollyannish cheer leading from the article linked above:

What’s happening in North Carolina–and that it’s happening in North Carolina–may be the greatest sign of hope this country has seen in a long, long time. If there is a groundswell there, one just might be building that’s powerful enough to sweep the entire nation.

That won’t happen.

The second article outlines the events and actors that led to the Tea Party assuming control of North Carolina in the first place.

Cash from groups backed by the Koch brothers and others helped North Carolina Republicans build a robust conservative infrastructure and fundraising network, leading to the GOP winning both the governor’s mansion and the state legislature in the same year for the first time since Reconstruction.

That takeover didn’t come overnight, but it caught Democrats by surprise, especially since Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and lost only by 2 percentage points last year.

I question the direct causal claim implied above, and a) “carried the state” is perhaps a bit sweeping for a 0.32% plurality, but b) the money, organisation, and, well, the money definitely helped at the margins. North Carolina was always going to be a hard sell for Obama in 2012, but the changes at the state level do appear to be historic.

I’m sympathetic to protest politics, and understand the dynamics that lead to it as an expression of (small d) democratic participation. I’ve even participated in a few out of solidarity. Did those protests make any difference in policy? No. Did Wisconsin? No. Will North Carolina? No. In order to have a chance at making a difference where it really matters in terms of policy outputs, ground level organisation and money are required. This isn’t nearly as romantic or visible as a good protest, but it stands a better chance of actually, you know, working.

Black Turnout

[ 28 ] May 9, 2013 |

The story has been floating around the past few days, but it’s been confirmed with the release of a report yesterday from the US Census (specifically the Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement).  African Americans voted at a higher rate than the (non-Latino) white population for the first time in 2012. Turnout among the black population was 66.2%, and the non-Latino white population 64.1%.  I’ve skimmed the report, and I’ll read it with greater attention tonight or tomorrow morning, and hope to have some more to say about it.

When we consider all the barriers both attempted and actually erected in the name of suppressing minority turnout fraud prevention,this is pretty remarkable. More so when we consider that for each percentage point increase in a state’s black population, the average wait increased nearly half a minute at the polls; nationally, Latinos and African Americans waited an average of 20.2 minutes, while whites 12.7 minutes.

(Sir) Alex Ferguson

[ 57 ] May 8, 2013 |

is finally retiring. Ferguson has been rumored to be retiring for over a decade now, and I can still recall the sure bet that it was about ten years ago for Celtic manager Martin O’Neil to take over United. Being a right thinking individual, and an Arsenal supporter, I’m not a fan of Manchester United, like I’m not a fan of the New York Yankees. Likewise, I don’t really like Ferguson. However, it’s difficult to ignore the results. What he did with both Aberdeen in the 1980s, and United since 1986, is pretty remarkable. While the Aberdeen side he took over were sporadically competitive, he broke the Old Firm monopoly with three titles in eight seasons, capped by a (now defunct) European Cup Winners Cup victory over Bayern Munich in 1983. In 1986, Man U had last won the league title in 1966/67 (and the European Cup in 1968, one year after Celtic became the first British side to win it, mind), and were even relegated at the end of the 1974 season. When Ferguson was hired, they were 21st in the league. It would take seven seasons before United won their first title under Ferguson in 1993, which indicates a patience not typical in the present day. Including 1993, United have won 13 league titles, two European Cups (in the guise of the UEFA Champions League), five FA Cups, and four League Cups. In short, United under Ferguson have been consistently more annoying than the Yankees.

Yeah, he’s been annoyingly successful. More interesting is comparing that success. The media here on this island are lauding him as the best British manager ever, and they might be right. Major trophies include 16 league titles, nine FA cups, five league cups, two European Cups, and two Cup Winners Cups, as well as a series of minor European and domestic trophies. I don’t have the time to do a comprehensive review, but the competition that comes to mind include Bob Paisley (only six top flight titles, no FA cups, but three European Cups), Matt Busby (5, 3, and 1), and Jock Stein (10 and 8, but all in Scotland, and one European Cup). It gets a little more competitive (and complicated) when comparing Ferguson internationally.  Ferguson is one of 17 managers to have won the European Cup twice (the record remains Paisley’s three). I’m curious if anybody has replicated his sustained success both domestically and in European (or the relevant regional association) competition. The names I’m coming up with all seem to fall short somehow. Rinus Michels (four Eredivisie, one LaLiga, one European Cup, one European Championship, one World Cup funner-up), del Bosque (the World Cup, European Championship, two Champions Leagues, but only two LaLiga titles). Trapattoni? Maybe Hitzfeld (seven Bundesliga titles, two Swiss titles, and winning the Champions League with two different clubs)? What is clear is that if Real Madrid could have stuck with one manager for longer than five minutes at any point in their career (especially the late 1950s) Ferguson would have clear competition. And the next generation have a couple candidates that, if they replicate his longevity, might likewise compete (Guardiola and Mourinho specifically). But such longevity is rare; Johan Cruyff, who is five years younger than Ferguson, hasn’t managed a club since 1996.

A couple interesting facts about Ferguson — his first managerial job was at the mighty (and this past season, peer of Rangers) East Stirlingshire, subject of a very good book about quite possibly the worst professional team in Britain: Pointless. Second, his first match in charge of Man United? A 2-0 loss at Oxford United, who are currently settled in the fourth tier of English soccer.

SC-1 Special Election: Sanford vs. Colbert Busch

[ 77 ] May 7, 2013 |

This is relevant to very few people outside of the 1st Congressional District in the state of South Carolina.  The district has a PVI of R+11 (I’m surprised that it’s that low), has been represented by Republicans since January 1981, and voted +18 for Romney. That the word “competitive” ever enters the discourse on this race speaks volumes about the quality of the Republican’s Appalachian Trail candidate (due in court two days following the election) who must “rise from the ashes” in order to win. Most of the analysis really goes out on a limb in a) predicting a low turnout election, and b) the candidate who mobilizes their support best is more likely to win. In anything other than a Presidential election, that usually can be interpreted as “not the Democrat”.

Regardless of the idiosyncrasies of the candidates, the structural conditions favor a Republican blowout. The best electoral context for Democrats in this district in recent times was in November, and Democrats got hammered. Any decline in turnout will impact the two parties asymmetrically; a May election in an odd year is the worst possible case for Democratic turnout. However, even though the polling has been all over the map on this one, it’s currently (according to PPP) a one point Sanford lead. That Colbert Busch might win is remarkable, but I’m not betting on it. Even if she does win, she’d likely be one of the first Democrats to fall in 2014.

Correlation or Causation? The NRA and Armed Rebellion

[ 66 ] May 6, 2013 |

I’ve been largely out of touch the past couple of weeks (some would say it’s been considerably longer) so apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere.

When the incoming President of the NRA (by my understanding, a largely ceremonial position; we’ll still have Wayne LaPierre around to frighten into submission) inspires his already over-inspired audience with rhetoric such as this:

“This is not a battle about gun rights,” Porter said, calling it “a culture war.”

“(You) here in this room are the fighters for freedom. We are the protectors”

is it really “staggering” that 29% of Americans believe that “in the next few years, an armed revolution might be necessary in order to protect our liberties”?

As Erik suggested a few days ago, by all accounts, the tenure of James Porter is going to reliably bring the crazy. While most of the discussion about Porter highlight his batshit side (e.g. his lamenting the war of Northern Aggression, being a birther, etc.), this is more telling, and confirmatory about our assessment of the NRA:

“Porter, 64, whose father was NRA president from 1959-1961, is part of the small, Birmingham, Ala., law firm of Porter, Porter & Hassinger. The firm’s website notes its expertise in defending gun manufacturers in lawsuits.”

It’s not about rights.  It’s about money.

Are We Safe? (Soccer)

[ 24 ] April 20, 2013 |

One of the joys of following soccer is, even approaching the end of the season, nearly every game matters. As I’ve been writing here, the side local to my England residence has been in the relegation zone of the fourth division for most of the season. Coincidental (not to be confused with causal; we social scientists need to pay extra care to this) to my periodic consideration of the fortunes of Plymouth Argyle FC here in LGM, which started about six weeks ago, they’ve been on their best run all season, a run that has seen them improve from 24th to 17th in the division. There’s two matches remaining this year, and Gordon Sparks (of BBC Radio Devon) has produced a handy low tech guide to their safety:

You can play along here for the English fourth tier, and here to see if Arsenal have a chance at finishing fourth in the top flight.

In related news, last Sunday night I strangely witnessed the team local to my Oregon residence score a goal and win a match. While my allegiance to the Timbers is minimal, the atmosphere in (what is now known as) Jeld-Wen Field is stunning. We can do two things in that ground that we can not in Plymouth (or Glasgow) — stand during the entire 90 minutes of the match, and drink a beer.

Rutgers Practices Were Not a Hostile Work Environment

[ 40 ] April 7, 2013 |

Which perfectly sums up the lunacy of big time collegiate sports in the US.

Most of us know the story now, and it appears that plenty of administrators at Rutgers knew the full story in late November. An outside report was commissioned, but not to determine whether or not the coach and his methods represented a throwback to neanderthal times, but to ascertain whether or not this provided evidence of a hostile work environment:

The interviews and documents reveal a culture in which the university was far more concerned with protecting itself from legal action than with protecting its students from an abusive coach.

University officials focused on the technical issue of whether Mr. Rice had created a hostile work environment, a potential legal justification for his firing, while paying less attention to the larger question of whether Rutgers should employ an authority figure who hurled slurs at and physically provoked its students.

Without irony, the report concludes that while the coach was maybe perhaps if you squint just right, a teensy weensy bit demeaning, “Coach Rice’s conduct does not constitute a hostile work environment”.

It’s safe to say that even the report admits the environment was, at times, hostile. Hence, the focus is on the word “work”, and clearly these athletes are not working for the university. Which has a side benefit: once their scholarship is over, the universities are no longer responsible for any lingering health issues resulting from injuries encountered during their studies.

Jeff Spicoli’s Time Has Arrived

[ 42 ] April 5, 2013 |

MJ reports new Pew Research data showing that 52% of Americans support the legalization of marijuana, against 45% opposed, which fits with the recent initiative success in Washington and Colorado (more thorough analysis here.)

 

Likewise not surprising is the similarity of the trendlines in the graph above as well as below. The data on support for same sex marriage obviously doesn’t go as far back into the past, but in 1996 support for SSM was 27/68, while the graph above it looks to be roughly the same for marijuana legalization in 1996. Indeed it might have been a bit lower. Without downloading and quickly eyeballing the GSS from 1996, I’m left with this story, which states that “there has also been a change among the Baby Boomer generation – half now support legalization, up from 24 percent in 1996.”

There’s a research question in there considering the similarities (and differences) in the two issues, but as I’m a bit addled with jetlag, I’m not very imaginative at the moment. I don’t believe either presage the vaunted coming Democratic majority, an idea I’m skeptical about, but I will note with some pride that my home state of Washington passed initiatives on both this past November, the only state where one can recreationally smoke a bowl at the reception of a same sex marriage.

Today in “What? This Isn’t From The Onion?”

[ 38 ] April 4, 2013 |

Headline: Georgia Teens Fight for Racially Integrated Prom Because It’s 2013, for Chrissakes.

Black and white students at Wilcox County High School in south Georgia aren’t allowed to go to the same prom. Instead, students and parents sponsor segregated proms — yep, in 2013 — and kids that break the skin-dress code are barred entry from the caucasian rager. A mixed-race group of friends who hang out all of the time but can’t wear corsages and dance to Top 40 together are trying to encourage their peers to participate in a radical social experiment called NOT BEING RACIST.

“We’re embarrassed, it’s embarrassing, yeah it’s kind of embarrassing,”

Yeah, I’d be kind of embarrassed to attend a high school that holds a prom which, you know, bans any member of the First Family of the freaking United States from attending.

Global Warming, As Seen from 1982

[ 27 ] March 31, 2013 |

Yet another factor enters into the world food picture – a new and ominous phenomenon. The climate of the world seems to be changing; it may, say our best scientists, be warming up. This slight, almost imperceptible, but relentless warming of the past ten years has already brought tragedy, and may forecast worse. The southern fringe of Africa’s Sahara desert, the Sahel, has already spread to parch central Africa. A decade of sorrow and starvation have followed. The same climactic change has punished Russian food production — first in 1972, again in 1975, and again in 1981.

White, Theodore H. 1982. America in Search of Itself: The Making of the President, 1956-1980. Harper & Row, New York. pp 139.

I don’t have enough information about the two specific events cited above (African starvation or the three bad harvests in Russia) to know if the causal claim (e.g. climate change –> drought –> starvation) is robust, but a mainstream journalist discussed the concept 31 years ago, and yet there are some who still debate the phenomenon. While I don’t know the extent to which the actions of humankind were blamed in 1982 (which does seem to be a fair percentage of the remaining debate), by the time I was taking meteorology in college in 1988 the existence and cause were both clear, but not yet embraced as consensus. Given that my meteorology class in 1988 was treating it as cutting edge science, I’m impressed to see White put it in print in 1982.

Republican Wanker of the Week

[ 37 ] March 29, 2013 |

I’m thinking Don Young, R-AK, has it in the bag. At least he meant no disrespect.

How do you compete with that if it’s only Tuesday? For your B-side, on Thursday you advise people to drink alone as it reduces domestic violence:

Young, in office since 1973, has made the news over the years for malapropisms and worse. On Thursday, he addressed a Choose Respect noon rally at the Capitol in Juneau and appeared to advise people to drink alone to reduce the risk of domestic violence.

“Watch the alcohol and the drugs,” Young said from a podium on the Capitol steps. “You look at the relationship between violence against the loved ones you love, (it) is usually related to either one of those. And I’m going to suggest for those that may be drinking together — Stop it! If you want to drink by yourself, you may do it. But when you drink together, the possibility of harm becomes greater every day.”

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