From the brilliant mind that gave the world “Women and people of color make up the majority of the Trump coalition” comes the real story behind Doug Jones’ Tuesday victory.
But if you actually look at the exit polling, it is pretty clear that the real story of Jones’s victory was not inordinate black turnout but rather inordinate white support for the Democratic candidate.
In the following table, I have compiled the black share of the electorate, black support for Democrats, and the election result for the 2008, 2012, and 2017 Alabama elections. These are the last three years in which this kind of exit polling exists and these are the exit polls the NYT references in the quotation above.
Here are some numbers, are you not convinced by Bruenig’s numbers? Are you perhaps wondering why the comparison is 2008, 2012, 2017 and not – just by way of example, 1998, 2017?
Well stop that.