2017 AFC Preview: Finally, Those Lovable, Scrappy Underdogs From Boston Catch a Break
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AFC Big Sky: 1. Team Trump 2-4 who cares? As I’ve said before, Belichick is the best NFL coach ever for numerous reasons — he’s a very good talent evaluator, an exceptional technical instructor, and a peerless game planner and in-game adjustor. But he’s sustained success for so long in large measure because of his Stengelian lack of sentimentality and complacency. Given his fifth ring and the ridiculously uncompetitive division, it would be easy to just try to keep as much of the band together as possible, but his offseason moves have significantly improved the defense, and even with Edelman out this is one of the best collections of weapons Brady has had post-Moss. Still, there is real drama with the AFC this year: will Trump be on the sideline during the Super Bowl? Will Belichick make him the OC to prove he can win with anyone doing it? Mysteries abound! Some people will think I’m being unfair to lump the Fish in with the field. But while they’re better than New York and New Jersey’s sorry representatives, they were a below-average team that got lucky last year, and while an aged Jay Cutler is no worse than Tannehill he doesn’t figure to be a major improvement either. The Bills are a little closer to being in full tank mode than usual but haven’t quite committed; fortunately for Bills fans, they’ve given Taylor so little to work with they should remain safely behind Miami and could make a real race to the bottom with the Jets if he gets hurt. The Jets can’t be accused of not being fully committed to tanking — throwing to a collection of a receivers that was improved by adding Jermaine Kearse will be a sub-replacement-level veteran, a non-prospect, and/or the antithesis of a prospect. It would be fitting if the defense can squeak out a few 6-3 victories Jeff Fisher-Rams style, but I don’t see it happening.
AFC North 1. Pitt 2. Cin (*) 3. Bal 4. Cle The bad news for people who might like a little Super Bowl variety is that the second-best team in the conference is a bad matchup with the Patriots. As long as Roethlesberger can remain healthyish, though, they should win the division. The Bengals were better than their record last year and between health and acquisitions Dalton should have better support (although the o-line is shaky, a problem for Dalton particularly.) I suppose you can defend the Flacco signing at the time it was made — he was coming of three above-average years out of four, plus an exceptional playoff run, and overpaying for a good QB is something you can live with. But we can safely say the gamble has failed. For 3 out of 4 years Baltimore had paid ultra-elite money for replacement-level-at-best play, and it’s almost impossible to survive that. Their defense is decent but won’t be good enough. The Browns are finally headed in the right direction but they’re not ready to be actually good yet.
AFC Patriot 1. Ten 2. Ind 3. Hou 4. Jax Your humble correspondent was criticized by a certain Mariota partisan front-pager for being critical of Mike Mularkey and his EXOTIC SMASHMOUTH before the season. Given 1)his awful track record and 2)the fact that he had the most talented team in the division and somehow managed to blow the title to a team with Brock Osweiler at QB and missing its most valuable player, I stand by my assessment. The good news for Titans fans and Mariota partisans is that determining the worst coach in this division is like determining the dumbest Trump son. In addition to Mr. Smashmouth, we have a man who got the reputation of a QUARTERBACK GURU by getting somewhat worse performance out of an established Hall of Fame QB than Josh McDaniels, high school trick play aficionado Chuck Pagano, and superpar recent Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone. If Mariota stays healthy — a big if given that he’s being backed up by Matt Cassel — they should win this division fairly easily, especially given Luck’s own health issues. The Texans were the worst playoff team ever last year — 29th in DVOA, right below the 40ers — and even the return of Watt and at least a dead cat bounce at QB is unlikely to get then to .500. The Jaguars finally have a decent defense, but their QB situation is just sad. Still, I’m sure their decision to draft a punter with Russell Wilson still on the board will be fully vindicated.
AFC West 1. KC 2. Oak-LV (*) 3. SD LA 4. Den I’ll pick the high KC floor over the somewhat higher Oakland ceiling, although I expect both to make the playoffs. The Raiders were the third AFC playoff team that wasn’t as good as its record last year, but they overachieved less to a higher level than Miami or Texas and there’s still room for improvement. The El Lay Bolts figure to improve just by staying healthier and enduring fewer fluky losses. Denver still has a very good defense, but it’s already declined from its exceptional 2015 peak, as could have been predicted, and not only has the depth continued to thin out a bit, they’ve replaced one of the greatest DCs ever with someone who is certainly employed as an NFL defensive coordinator. Trevor Siemian has been very impressive for a 7th round pick with a barely above-water TD-INT ratio in Peonage Ball, but compared to other NFL QBs he figures to be somewhere between below-average and replacement-level. Their defense gives them some upside, but in this division it’s hard to like the team without a real QB.
While we’re here, this season marks the astonishing return of Greggggg Easterbrook, who has found an appropriate home at the Weekly Standard. Where else will you get fresh insights like this:
Lesson number two. Don’t blame the Falcons defense. That’s what the sportsyak world did—how could you blow a 28-3 lead? Head coach Dan Quinn scapegoated defensive coordinator Richard Smith, firing him after the game. Strange that Quinn did not fire the guy who made the Falcons’ defensive decisions in the Super Bowl. Oh wait, that was Quinn, who’d taken over defensive playcalling from Smith heading into Christmas. What a surprise Quinn did not fire himself!
Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is the one who should have borne the blame. There was nothing wrong with the Atlanta defensive fronts. Falcon defenders were simply outplayed in the second half, while the luck changed: In the first half the ball bounced Atlanta’s way, in the second half it bounced New England’s way. Shanahan was the one who made the knucklehead tactical decisions.
Yes, surely everyone else in the SPORTSYAK WORLD — although, conveniently, nobody Easterbrook can cite — blames the Falcons blowing the Super Bowl on the solely on the defense. It truly takes a BOLD ICONOCLAST like Easterbrook to criticize Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling and time management. I think it’s fair to say that it had not occurred to anybody that calling deep-drop passes and running plays with 15 or 20 seconds left on the play clock might be suboptimal strategy playing with the lead against Tom Brady. I can’t wait for next week, when Easterbrook is boldly contrarian enough to declare that Andy Reid’s two minute drill could use some work, and that the Jets might have a less effective passing attack than New England. You won’t hear anyone in sportsyak world saying this things, that’s for sure.