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GA-6

[ 75 ] April 19, 2017 |

Solid showing, but not quite the outright majority needed for a runoff:

Roughly five hours after polling locations closed, major networks began projecting that Georgia’s 6th District special election would be heading toward a runoff on June 20.

That means Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel, the race’s top two vote-getters, will have nine more weeks of expensive and heating campaigning before voters will decide who will replace Tom Price, now Trump’s health secretary, as the representative for Atlanta’s affluent, leafy northern suburbs in the House.

The runoff is definitely not a lock but it’s winnable. However it turns out, needless to say the lesson will be that the Democratic Party is permanently doomed because of its perfidious neoliberalism.

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  1. wengler says:

    It’s a good sign that Ossoff outperformed the polling. Some Republicans are taking a victory lap because the Democrat getting just less than 50 percent in a district that Republicans won by over 20 points last November is good?

  2. nobody says:

    While it’s still winnable, I do think that failing to win outright could very well mean similarly falling just short on the runoff.

    On the Democratic side, all support consolidated around Ossoff. Not so on the Republican​ side. But now everyone who voted Republican​ will vote for Handel. No one who voted for one of the Repubs is going to crossover to Ossoff! Since Repub vote > Dem vote, Repub should win the runoff. It’s just simple math.

    Obviously the runoff electorate won’t be identical. So Ossoff supporters might pick up nonvoters in today’s jungle primary. Unfortunately so will Handel so that effect cancels out.

    Again it’s still winnable but if I had to handicap it, Ossoff has about a 40% chance to do so in June over Handel.

    • Gwen says:

      I’m a little more optimistic about the runoff… Maybe 60 prevent chance I think.

      The past couple of weeks have been about rallying GOPers… And although GOPers historically “fall in line” Karen Handel strikes me as a candidate who might have trouble motivating conservatives. She seems to have a certain Hillary/Coakley vibe IMHO…. a career politician who seems capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

      • los says:

        Georgia special election heads for a runoff
        He is set to face [Karen] Handel, a former Georgia secretary of state who will try to unify Republicans after vicious weeks of internal GOP feuding. Handel expressed confidence Tuesday that Republicans can rally together to thwart the Democrat’s bid.

        “Tomorrow, we start the campaign anew,” Handel said. “Beating Ossoff and holding this seat is something that rises above any one person.”

        True. There are two Koch brothers.

      • los says:

        Dean Heller R, NV, U.S. Senate… weak reelection predicament.
        The desperation?

        GOP Senator In Vulnerable Seat Vows: ‘I Will Defend Planned Parenthood’ (with links to news sites)
        Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) says his vote on Title X funding was aimed to give states more flexibility in how to spend federal money.

        The Hill: Vulnerable GOP Senator: ‘No Problems’ With Planned Parenthood Funding
        Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) said Monday during a combative town hall that he supports federal funding for Planned Parenthood. “I have no problems with federal funding for Planned Parenthood,” Heller said when asked about his support for the health organization. The GOP senator was booed when he initially appeared to hedge his answer on whether or not he supports federal funding for Planned Parenthood. (Carney, 4/17)

        Politico Pro: Heller Voices Support For Planned Parenthood Funding
        Heller is a key swing vote on Planned Parenthood funding because the Senate vote margin is razor thin on the issue. His comments suggest he may be open to keeping federal funding. “The question is whether federal funding should cover some of the activities that occur in Planned Parenthood,” Heller said to boos from the crowd. “I don’t know if we’re going to agree on everything here, but a lot of my constituents called my office and said they don’t want federal funding at Planned Parenthood to be used for…” he said, appearing to trail off. (Haberkorn, 4/17)

        • los says:

          Kooo-koooo

          Meanwhile, in Ohio

          Cincinnati Enquirer: Planned Parenthood And Nazis: Lawmaker Makes The Comparison
          State Rep. Candice Keller, R-Middletown, posted an image comparing the Planned Parenthood logo to a swastika on her public page. Keller, who serves as executive director of the Community Pregnancy Center in Middletown, is unabashedly anti-abortion and opposes Planned Parenthood, which provides abortions along with other health care services. (Balmert, 4/17)

          And/or conflict of interest? Keller might benefit by banning competitors from federally funded compensation?

      • osceola says:

        She seems to have a rep as someone who’s always running for office. And when she wins, she never completes a single term because she’s running for a higher office. That puts alot of people off.

    • efgoldman says:

      Not so on the Republican​ side. But now everyone who voted Republican​ will vote for Handel.

      Everybody I talk to on line (admittedly all Dems/Ossoff supporters) feels that Handel is the best candidate from Ossoff’s point of view.
      She apparently is a minor-league Snarly Fiorina; she destroyed what was at the time the leading organization (in public, at least – apparently it was largely a grift) supporting mammograms and breast cancer research; she publicly tried to destroy Planned Parenthood. None of that is disqualifying for the mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging, bible-banging, racist flying monkeys, men or women, but it’s probably better at the margins.

      We should probably expect this race to set a spending record, certainly on the RWNJ side, maybe on both.

      • Karen24 says:

        From what I’ve read about Karen Handel, she combines the warmth of Fiorina with the inspired campaigning of Martha Coakley, and she can’t decide whether to support Trump or not. The fact that she has an R after her name gives her a hard floor of about 45% of the vote, but this is very far from the worst result last night.

        • efgoldman says:

          she can’t decide whether to support Trump or not.

          No guarantees in politics, of course (as you and I know – oy!) but I’d be amazed if Tangelo Tumor and his merry band don’t keep screwing up, and his numbers don’t keep going down, if on a shallower slope. Every RWNJ candidate is going to be caught between throwing Apricot Anchor over the side and pissing off the rabid base, or embracing him and pissing off the less rabid, but reliable suburban (R) voters.

      • Joe_JP says:

        tried to destroy Planned Parenthood

        She even wrote a book about it (h/t Irin Carmon).

        I’m okay with being happy about the results here but I want the guy to win before being that happy. On that front, the district usually goes Republican by a safe margin. That means a lot of otherwise Republican leaning voters (or non-voters who are okay with them winning) voted for him.

        Hopefully they stick together and get a bit more support next time. And, that the momentum here is as high in a few months. A nail-biter defeat will still be a defeat.

      • lmontheinternet says:

        …wow, it was not until this comment that I realized she was the same person as the one who made me angry that I’d ever raced and fundraised for Komen. Thank you for pointing it out and triggering my memory.

        There's so many republican grifters, who can keep track anymore.

        Now I don’t just want her to lose because I want someone else to win, I want specially-her to lose. [/bitter]

      • tsam says:

        She apparently is a minor-league Snarly Fiorina; she destroyed what was at the time the leading organization (in public, at least – apparently it was largely a grift) supporting mammograms and breast cancer research; she publicly tried to destroy Planned Parenthood. None of that is disqualifying for the mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging, bible-banging, racist flying monkeys, men or women, but it’s probably better at the margins.

        I feel like this resume helps her in terms of energizing base voters. At the moment, anything a Republican does to beat up on women (literally and figuratively) is a sure vote getter.

        • efgoldman says:

          I feel like this resume helps her in terms of energizing base voters.

          [Not original to me]
          She is said to have the charm of Snarly Fiorina and the political and campaign skills of Martha Coakely.

    • wengler says:

      No one who voted for one of the Repubs is going to crossover to Ossoff! Since Repub vote > Dem vote, Repub should win the runoff.

      I know we think that way here all the time(mentally adds all Jill Stein votes), but in real life it doesn’t work that way. People will stay home because their preferred candidate didn’t win enough votes to make the runoff. Also Trump is going to do any number of stupid things between now and June.

  3. los says:

    Georgia’s 6th District: Live election results, vote counts
    This page will continue to update until the vote counts are complete.

    The congressional race included 18 candidates, making it likely the winner would be decided in a June runoff election between the top two.

    In addition to the congressional seat, Tuesday’s voting also included one state Senate seat and city elections or election runoffs in Johns Creek, Roswell, South Fulton (city) and Stonecrest (city). The South Fulton runoff will decide the city’s first-ever mayor. Stonecrest, located in south DeKalb, has runoffs in its first city council races.

    .
    AJC Election Results: Georgia’s 6th Congressional District (Apr 18, 2017)
    Last updated at 4:54 AM on April 19, 2017.
    Showing 15 of 15 races.
    U.S. House – District 6

    Candidate Party Votes Percentage
    Jon Ossoff D 90,732 48%
    Karen Handel R 36,944 20%
    Bob Gray R 20,102 11%
    Judson Hill R 16,690 9%
    Dan Moody R 16,602 9%
    Kurt Wilson R 1,723 1%
    David Abroms R 1,599 1%
    Ragin Edwards D 496 0%
    Ron Slotin D 485 0%
    Bruce Levell R 447 0%
    Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan R 408 0%
    Keith Grawert R 395 0%
    Amy Kremer R 340 0%
    William Llop R 321 0%
    Rebecca Quigg D 297 0%
    Richard Keatley D 219 0%
    Alexander Hernandez I 120 0%
    Andre Pollard I 55 0%

    88% Reporting 185 of 210 Precincts

    (the other 14 races)

    • los says:

      (try nbsp to align)

      Candidate          Party  Votes  Percentage
      Jon Ossoff            D   90,732  48%
      Karen Handel          R   36,944  20%
      Bob Gray              R   20,102  11%
      Judson Hill           R   16,690   9%
      Dan Moody             R   16,602   9%
      Kurt Wilson           R    1,723   1%
      David Abroms          R    1,599   1%
      Ragin Edwards         D      496   0%
      Ron Slotin            D      485   0%
      Bruce Levell          R      447   0%
      Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan  R      408   0%
      Keith Grawert         R      395   0%
      Amy Kremer            R      340   0%
      William Llop          R      321   0%
      Rebecca Quigg         D      297   0%
      Richard Keatley       D      219   0%
      Alexander Hernandez   I      120   0%
      Andre Pollard         I       55   0%

  4. free_fries_ says:

    Does tonight make anyone else want to go completely to paper ballots? I don’t care that it’s the 21st century – I’m sick of all these weird little incidents in close races that always break R.

    • Dennis Orphen says:

      When the party of voter suppression, and outright kleptocracy is also the party of electronic voting machines……………….

    • humanoid.panda says:

      I’ll just point out that faking the Fulton results made as much sense as adding 3 million illegal votes in California: by the point when machines broke down, it was clear that Handel was 2nd and that Ossof will fall short of 50.

    • Joe_JP says:

      Except when they break Democrat.

      If this is “close” — we aren’t talking 2000 Flroida here. We are dealing with thousands of votes.

      • free_fries_ says:

        Referring to these weird incidents
        1) GA voter data hack earlier this year
        2) Stolen election equipment over the weekend
        3) “Data card error”

        Probably all just coincidences though

        • Joe_JP says:

          There has been various problems with electoral equipment for years, it’s something to be concerned about, but the elections still break in various ways.

          The one here also wasn’t that close. Finally, if there is some special conspiracy or the problems just plain inherently manage to lean one way, paper ballots very well might do that too. It surely was done back in the day.

  5. los says:

    AJC link:

    race’s top two vote-getters, will have nine more weeks of expensive and heating campaigning before

    Ossoff raises record haul in race for Georgia’s 6th District
    Aaron Gould Sheinin
    9:08 a.m. Thursday, April 6, 2017 Georgia Politics and Government

    Jon Ossoff on Wednesday announced record haul in the race for Georgia’s 6th congressional district, a stunning figure for the previously unknown Democrat.

    Ossoff’s raised more than $8.3 million in advance of April 18’s special election, a number 17 times greater than his nearest competitors in the multi-party election and an apparent record for a congressional candidate in a single quarter.

  6. Karen24 says:

    It should be noted that the top two Republicans ran somewhat distant from Trump. The most enthusiastic Trump supporter finished fifth. The other four hopeless Dems collectively won about one and a half percent, which coincidentally would put Ossoff over the top if they turn out for him in June. This thing is winnable guys, if we don’t give up.

    • John F says:

      which coincidentally would put Ossoff over the top if they turn out for him in June.

      Unfortunately no, the other Dems got less than that, with all votes tallied it was Rs: 51.0%, Dems: 48.9%, Inds: 0.1%

    • LeeEsq says:

      Its how a substantial number of people think including more than a few that vote Democratic. Many people argue that inequality doesn’t matter as long as the size of the economic pie is big enough to provide to provide for everybody and there is not too much corruption in society. The way to increase wealth to these people is not through redistribution but through cost reduction. If your salary or wages drop by twenty percent but costs of drop by a thirty-three percent than your wealth increases.

      Many people also see tampering with the economy as akin to way some people perceive genetically modifying food or the weather, very dangerous. They believe the economy operates by something close to natural law and any attempt to go against these laws will cause problems. Wealth redistribution is one form of tampering to people who think this way.

    • GeorgeBurnsWasRight says:

      I find just about everything The Federalist publishes to be a parody of intelligent ideas. They’re verging on Alex Jones’ territory in their own way.

      • Q.E.Dumbass says:

        Mark Joseph Stern’s observation that it’s turned “from a down-market National Review into a slightly upmarket Breitbart” is about accurate.

  7. FFFFFFIIII says:

    Now to Montana for a month before heading back to Georgia.

  8. Gregor Sansa says:

    If this had been done using 321 voting, Ossoff would have won.

  9. C.V. Danes says:

    However it turns out, needless to say the lesson will be that the Democratic Party is permanently doomed because of its perfidious neoliberalism.

    We may be doomed to be the Party that looses by an inch.

  10. efgoldman says:

    Meanwhile in a less-publicized, but probably scarier for RWNJs election in Virginia:

    Jackie Smith has won the special election in the race for clerk of the Prince William Circuit Court.

    Smith, a Democrat, was squaring off with Del. Jackson Miller, R-50th District, for the chance to serve the remainder of the late Michele McQuigg’s eight-year term as clerk.

    With 100 percent of the vote in and more than 25,000 votes counted in Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park, Smith won the election by more than 2,000 votes.

    This is a very, very big deal locally.

    • Karen24 says:

      *smiles evilly*

      That is a big deal, and the VA governor’s race is next fall.

      • efgoldman says:

        the VA governor’s race is next fall.

        Yup. Not only off year but odd year (NJ too). Designed to keep incumbents in power because of low turnout, VA governor limited to one four-year term.
        Also the whole state legislature – both houses.
        VA is now solidly purple, trending ever bluer. NoVa (Metro DC) population has grown enough to keep the trend going. State legislative districts are very heavily gerrymandered to give the RWNJs in power, but it looks like things are changing there, too.
        Now when are y’all in Texas gonna’ get moving?

        • Karen24 says:

          We already are. For one thing, our very own lunatic Lite Guv Dan Patrick is having a very public feud with the Speaker of the House, also a Republican, over the Bathroom Bill and voucher program. Speaker says both bills are dead in the water. There’s still about a month and a half of session left, but neither bill is set for hearings in the House, so that’s a mercy. We’ve also got a guy already running for Ted Cruz’s seat.

        • Aaron Morrow says:

          Also the whole state legislature – both houses.

          In NJ, this is true.
          IN VA, the House of Delegates is up for reelection, but not the Virginia Senate.

    • In other news, Manassas is my favorite town in the world to deliberately mispronounce.

    • josiah says:

      Beyond the implications that it’s a harbinger of the Governor’s race in 2017 or Virginia legislature, can someone tell me why it’s important? Or why it’s an elected position?

      Genuinely curious.

      • John F says:

        I don’t know how it’s a harbinger either, HRC easily topped Trump in that county, Obama won there twice.

        OTOH the County Board Chairman is a RWNJ/Trumpista…. 6 of the 8 Board of Supervisors members are Repubs

      • efgoldman says:

        can someone tell me why it’s important? Or why it’s an elected position?

        It’s an elected position because it is. Like, say, the Register of Deeds in MA. No reason it should be, except somebody decided way back then.
        It’s a big deal, my understanding, because Prince William County at the local level has been RWNJ forever.

  11. DrDick says:

    Frankly, the Democratic Party has been doomed at least since Humphrey, at least according to the press. Of course back then, it was because they had moved “too far to the left” (code for supporting civil rights).

  12. louislouis says:

    needless to say the lesson will be that the Democratic Party is permanently doomed because of its perfidious neoliberalism.

    Huh? The GA-6 election has been almost uniformly discussed as a referendum of sorts on Trump, and not on the substance of the Democratic Party.

    • PunditusMaximus says:

      Lemeiux is having a funny at the expense of people like me who are of the opinion that one of the primary reasons Dems have been losing for the past 8 years, culminating in Tr45, was a commitment to the current batch of conservative economic policy, which is sometimes called “neoliberalism”

      • Erik Loomis says:

        “Conservative economic policy” and “neoliberalism” are not synonymous.

        • PunditusMaximus says:

          Neoliberalism is the latest intellectual cover for conservative economic policy. Somehow, the all-encompassing markets controlling everything meme never seems to touch high-status areas of the oligarchy.

          But sure, there are some interesting fights between neoliberalist writers and orthodox conservative Class Warriors on the margins. They never seem to make it into policy, tho.

          cf: “self-enforcing markets”

  13. Cassiodorus says:

    I know we’re supposed to stop relitigating the primary, but it’s a challenge when Sanders supporters on the “unity committee” are gloating about Ossoff not hitting 50%.

    • DrDick says:

      Sanders, however, is the only Democrat campaigning for Quist here in Montana.

    • D.N. Nation says:

      Is there any way the Brooklyn Kewl Krew can get over themselves for five minutes? Cackling with glee over a Democrat going to a runoff in a heavy-red district is…somehow progressivism? How? Why?

      It’s almost like TYT wears “progressivism” as one would wear a fucking hat.

      Also, if they’re so concerned about Ossoff’s apparent neoliberal perfidy, they had all the chances in the world to run an Our Revolution candidate. They didn’t. Why that’s just too much work. Did grab a city council seat in South Fulton, I’ll grant them. (Without sarcasm or malice; I was supporting the guy.)

    • ForkyMcSpoon says:

      And linking to that Shattered book, of course.

      (Also somehow Nina Turner got on that commission, which… how she could be seen as helpful for unity I don’t know. She seemed pretty anti-unity during the campaign…)

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