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Hillary Clinton Will Be the Next President of the United States

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Let me try to convince Paul that his instincts are correct:

  • The most important point here is that 538 is just one model, and in this case it’s an outlier. Look at the other, similarly reliable models: Sam Wang’s PEC has it at 97%/99% Clinton, Upshot has at 91% Clinton, HuffPost 98%, DKos 95%. To be clear: I have admired Nate Silver’s work going way back before 538, and he’s quietly put an exceptional political analysis team together with Malone, Azari, Enten et al. But — as I think he would be the first to tell you — you shouldn’t focus on his model in isolation. Looking at all of the models, giving a 10% chance to Trump is almost certainly too high and 20% is way too high.
  • It’s worth noting that these models don’t know that Trump has an unusually terrible GOTV operation. He is far more likely to underperform the polls than to overperform them. This is particularly important since Clinton is using her profressional operation to bank her early advantage in North Carolina and Florida with early voting, and if Trump loses even one of those states, he’s drawing dead. And he’s going to lose both.
  • Which brings me to a final, related point: if you think Trump is going to win, what does his Electoral College map look like?

Clinton will win, by more than Obama 2012 and very possibly Obama 2008. I understand the implication to panic given the stakes, but Trump ain’t winning.

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