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Trump’s inevitability

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In theory the GOP process still has three possible outcomes: Trump, Cruz, and somebody who didn’t run.

In practice it has only one.

Trump is going to finish with somewhere between 1100 and 1250 pledged delegates. If he’s at the top of that range he wins on the first ballot without needing to secure any unbound delegates (of which there will be between 150 and 200 at the time of the convention.) If he’s anywhere else in that range he’s going to get the nomination, because he’ll have a big plurality over Cruz, and very close to an actual majority.

The whining of the NeverTrump# types notwithstanding, denying Trump the nomination in the latter scenario just isn’t politically feasible. Doing so would require disregarding the entire primary process, and that can’t be done at this point in American political history.

The only thing more certain than Trump’s eventual victory is that Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee. On both sides, the last seven weeks of the primary season will be an exercise in playing out the string, nothing more.

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