Your Initial Iowa HOT TAKES
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- You know how I’ve criticized NFL coaches for having third-stringers return punts in key situations because it’s all downside without much upside? Well, the Clinton campaign preemptively declaring victory is like that.
- Political science is looking just a little bit better tonight. Trump is not dead, not by a long shot, but certainly Rubio becoming the candidate of party elites and giving Trump a major challenge is looking a lot more likely than it did last week. Not only did Rubio outperform his RCP average by 6 points, but the other candidates with some elite support underperformed their already dismal numbers, which has to help Rubio’s chances of making New Hampshire look more respectable.
- And, certainly, tonight’s results do not alleviate concerns about the quality of Trump’s GOTV organization and the commitment level of his supporters. If he maintains the kind of lead he has in national polls right now, it’s not a big deal, but if he starts to slip…
- I’m not saying I would write off Cruz entirely, but I don’t think his chances are great. The Iowa caucuses are very favorable territory for him — he should have been able to beat Rubio by more than 5 points.
- I’m sure Jeb!’s donors are excited that all that money got him almost 2,000 votes more than Carly Fiorina.