Sanders and Trump Would be a Media Elite Dream of a Reasonable Man on a Horse Saving Us Come True

Scott is probably right in dismissing Michael Bloomberg’s daily narcissism as nothing more than attempting to scare the left into voting for Hillary Clinton. At the same time, if the candidates are indeed Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, there’s a good chance the weirdest presidential election in American history would get even whackier. As Robert Kuttner writes, there really is a good chance of a third party centrist run in this election. Now, I think he’s largely wrong about how these scenarios work out. I am skeptical of a third-party Republican run if Trump wins and runs against Hillary. And I am skeptical of a third-party Democratic run if Sanders wins and runs against Rubio or whoever isn’t Trump or Cruz. There’s enough space there for disgruntled voters to live with the oppositional candidate. And I’m skeptical of some four-way campaign if it Sanders and Trump. Not gonna happen.

But I do absolutely think a 3rd party centrist media darling candidacy may well happen if it is Sanders vs. Trump. Such a person, Bloomberg or otherwise, would have no chance of winning of course or even of winning any states. But that person might well win enough votes to throw a state one way or another. My personal fear is that if a Bloomberg-type ran, he (of course) would maybe receive 10% of the vote, tops. But there would be money behind it and a lot of media coverage. Yet there’s certainly no groundswell of Republican voter outrage that the party will nominate Trump. Republican elites may dominate Meet the Press appearances and New York Times articles, but they sure don’t dominate the poll numbers. And while there’s probably wouldn’t be a big demand among Democrats for a 3rd party candidate either if Sanders won, I do worry that there’s enough Hillary-lovers out there to vote for a moderate Wall Street candidate. The only way any of this matters though is through the states. If we assume, as I do, that were such a candidate to appear they probably would draw more from Democratic voters than Republicans, then it becomes more deadly for Democrats because there are so many states Democrats win by 1-5 points and other than maybe North Carolina, zero states that Republicans win by such a narrow margin. It really wouldn’t take much to bump Ohio or Florida or Virginia to Trump in this scenario.

I may well be just writing scared here. But it’s something I worry about.

And to be clear, I in no way mean this to be a reason not to vote for Sanders. Were he the nominee, my animus would go toward those voting for this theoretical centrist candidate.