Paris

Some similarly barely organized thoughts on the Paris attack:

• The French government has made it clear that it believes ISIS to be responsible, but the tactics bear much greater similarity to Al Qaeda. The French undoubtedly have good reasons to believe what they do, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the verdict on responsibility evolve over the next few days.
• I think it’s clear that the biggest impact is going to be felt in the domestic politics and France, and the broader internal politics of the EU.  A few folks yesterday were tweeting about “President Le Pen,” and I have to concede it’s a serious concern.  Anti-refugee and other right wing groups will undoubtedly derive a great deal of support from the attacks, as well.
• It is no easy thing to assemble an arsenal and set up a planned, coordinated series of attacks under the noses of the French security and intelligence services.  It’ll be very interesting to see how the attackers managed to find a seam in French intel, and how they managed to keep their planning efforts secure.
• Not obvious yet what the French response will be, but if they do decide it was ISIS, I expect it will go beyond adding a few additional French aircraft to existing coalition efforts.  This may be the incident that precipitates an expansion of special forces efforts against ISIS, both by the French and potentially by other European governments.