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MLB Random Notes

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Paul shamed me out of attempting to predict the inherently not meaningfully predictable MLB playoffs several years ago, but some assorted links and observations:

  • To borrow Hunter Felt’s line, some impressive 3-out hitting by the Rangers today.  I really hope the Royals win because ye gods is an Astros/Rangers ALCS unenticing.
  • While Yankee Elimination Day is always a good day, this year the celebration is attenuated by the fact that I was happy to see A-Rod do well for obvious reasons, and was happy to see Carlos Beltran have a good year because he’s a Hall of Fame player and the “but he didn’t swing at that unhittable Adam Wainwright curveball that one time” thing is the dumbest shit ever.
  • The Pirates losing means there’s plenty of whining about the single-game wildcard playoff, which I find as unpersuasive as ever. Two additional points: 1)a particularly weak argument against the format is the “there should be a three-game playoff” alternative.  The difference between a one- and three-game playoff between two fairly evenly matched teams in terms of reducing the role of chance and ensuring that the “better team” wins is, for all intents and purposes, nothing.  2)Any playoff system that involves divisions has potential inequities, but divisions are necessary in a 15-team league. In addition, even if we got the narrow-minded quantoid’s wet dream and fan’s nightmare of one big 30-team league playing a balanced schedule and declaring the first place team the champion, between injuries and the fact that run sequence luck doesn’t even out in a season sample, the “best” team would not win with any particular reliability.  The goal of sports is not simply to determine the “best” team in some strong sense; a sport in which the “best” team always wins would not even be worth watching.
  • The thing is, Ned Yost is a good manager.  People overrate the importance of tactics.  Evaluating and developing talent is a much more important part of the job, and Yost has shown solid abilities in that area in two jobs now.
  • By the same token, the Mariners did the right thing in firing Llyod McClendon.  When a team underachieves that badly for a manager with a record of no particular distinction, that’s a very strong prima facie case for firing the manager.  It might be a coincidence, but that’s definitely not how to bet.  I don’t see anything that mitigates his performance; indeed, it’s not clear what if anything he does well.  And the Mariners really can’t afford to recycle a hack like Eric Wedge or John McClaren, either.  This isn’t a young team that can afford to be patient; it’s a team with a lot invested in front-line talent whose window is closing.  DiPoto needs to get this right.
  • I really wish that assertions that Clayton Kershaw isn’t “clutch” or whatever weren’t bullshit.
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