Decisions!

Interesting on Chip Kelly’s decision to kick the FG on 4th and 1 from the 2 yard line with 2 minutes left against the Cardinals:

“Good call!”

When it’s in the middle to late 4th quarter (or overtime), I use a measure called win percentage, which puts more emphasis on how 4th down decisions affect game outcomes. (This measure isn’t as useful earlier in the game, when the impact of a single play is harder to measure. Check out the methodology page for more details.) Here’s the breakdown for the Eagles’ scenario.

OPTION	TEAMS DOING THIS WOULD WIN…	THIS SUCCEEDS ABOUT…	COACHES DO THIS…*
Go for it	70% of the time	55% of the time	64% of the time
Punt	49% of the time	–	–
Field goal try	83% of the time	100% of the time	35% of the time

* Based on about 600 fourth downs with similar field position and distance to first down since 2002

In this case, teams who attempt a field goal would be more likely to win. This doesn’t mean this is absolutely the right call in every situation. But on average, in situations like these, I recommend doing what the coach did: attempt a field goal!

I would have guessed the other way, and had that guess confirmed by ensuing events…