Worst Defeat Since Poltava?

Tonight, Stockholm will be in flames:

Swiss voters rejected a 3.1 billion- franc ($3.5 billion) order for Gripen fighter jets, a setback to Swedish defense company Saab AB.

The 22-plane contract, which Switzerland awarded 2 1/2 years ago, was opposed by 53.4 percent of voters, the government in Bern said on its website today. That’s in line with the latest survey ahead of the vote, which showed some 51 percent of people polled opposed the transaction.

“The people have spoken,” said Susanne Leutenegger Oberholzer, a Social Democrat member of parliament. “We surely don’t have the money for such unnecessary acquisitions.”

Here was Bill Sweetman singing the praises of the Gripen E a few weeks ago:

The conundrum facing fighter planners is that, however smart your engineering, these aircraft are expensive to design and build and have a cradle-to-grave product life that is far beyond either the political or technological horizon.

The reason that the

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JAS 39E may earn a Gen 6 tag is that it has been designed with these issues in mind. Software comes first: The new hardware runs Mission System 21 software, the latest roughly biennial release in the series that started with the JAS 39A/B. Long life requires adaptability, both across missions and through-life. Like Ed Heinemann’s A-4 Skyhawk, the Gripen was designed as a small aircraft with a relatively large payload. And by porting most of the software to the new version, the idea is that all C/D weapons and capabilities, and then some, are ready to go on the E…

However, what should qualify the JAS 39E for a Gen 6 tag is what suits it most for a post-Cold War environment. It is not the world’s fastest, most agile or stealthiest fighter. That is not a bug, it is a feature. The requirements were deliberately constrained because the JAS 39E is intended to cost less to develop, build and operate than the JAS 39C, despite doing almost everything better. As one engineer says: “The Swedish air force could not afford to do this the traditional way”—and neither can many others.

It’s an ambitious goal, and it is the first time that Sweden has undertaken such a project in the international spotlight. But if it is successful, it will teach lessons that nobody can afford not to learn.

Apparently the Swiss can afford not to learn it, at least for the time being.

Given the relatively close vote, it should be noted that it’s not impossible (if not necessarily likely) that Wikileaks vigorous campaign against the Gripen may have had a decisive impact. Wikileaks is, of course, deeply concerned with all corruption associated with any defense contracts that aren’t tendered by Rosoboronexport. The failure of the referendum means that Switzerland will continue to make due with its F/A-18 Hornets, which will make Boeing happy the next time the frame comes up for upgrade. It’ll also mean that Boeing, Eurofighter, Dassault will fight hard for the next potential Swiss contract.