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2012 Prediction Review

[ 17 ] January 1, 2013 |

The prediction process for 2012 went better than for 2011:

World Series Champion: Texas Rangers (San Francisco Giants)
College Basketball National Champion: Kentucky Wildcats
Israeli Strikes on Iran:0
3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Growth: 2.0% (2.0-2.7-3.1)
Number of Syrian Presidents named Assad on 12/31/12: 1
North Korean nuclear tests: 1 (0)
November 2012 Unemployment: 8.1% (7.7%)
Democratic seats, Senate: 47 (53+)
Democratic seats, House: 220 (201)
GOP Presidential Nominee: Mitt Romney
Barack Obama Electoral Votes: 272 (332)
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 485 (405)

Giving myself half points for GDP (nailed the revised number) and for Obama (at least I picked the right guy). That makes 5 out of 12, a dramatic improvement And now for 2013:

World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds
Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1
Academy Award, Best Picture: Lincoln
Afghanistan Coalition fatalities: 315 (+/- 15)
North Korean nuclear tests: 1
Sunsets on the Syria under President of Bashar al-Assad: 75 (+/- 7)
College Basketball National Champion: Louisville Cardinals
Heisman Trophy: Marcus Mariota
Israeli strikes on Iran: 0
Egyptian Military Coups: 1
Supreme Court vacancies: 1
2013 3rd Quarter GDP growth: 3.2% (+/-.2%)
Number of former Russian aircraft carriers delivered to Indian Navy: 0
Barack Obama approval rate, 12/31/13: 51.3% (+/- .3%)

See also Dave Weigel and Jonathan Bernstein on the subject of predictions. On the more substantive review/prediction industry, see McGrath (maritime trends)  and Feng (naval developments in China from 2012).


Comments (17)

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  1. Ken Houghton says:

    Shouldn’t that approval rating be for 12/31/2013?

  2. cpinva says:

    at least you were wrong on the right side of the unemployment rate. too bad you didn’t include that for 2013, maybe you could drop it even lower.

    i am curious though, what’s your rationale for predicting a military coup in egypt? will the country become that unstable this year?

  3. Ted says:

    If that first one is right I don’t care about any of the others. I’m skeptical, though.

  4. sleepyirv says:

    If you have Cincinnati Reds winning the World Series, it raises an obvious question- What day does Cincinnati fires Dusty Baker to make that possible?

  5. Walt says:

    Do you think Chavez is going to die, or leave office?

    • chris y says:

      Chavez is three quarters dead right now. New Venezuelan Presidents > 0 can be assumed. I’m interested and relieved that Farley thinks there will only be one in the year.

      • c u n d gulag says:

        I predict, that the day Chavez dies, we’ll find out that his last words were, “Fidel Castro still lives.”

        And we’ll find that Castro died earlier in the day.

  6. jadegold says:

    Randy Forbes (R-VA) “an intellect?”

    Does McGrath really believe this?

  7. njorl says:

    I don’t know about your World Series or NCAA Basketball predictions, but you’ve got the Stanley Cup nailed.

    • Patrick says:

      There’s been at least some talk in Canadian media of awarding it to an amateur or semi-pro team, since it’s at least nominally separate from the NHL organization. I think that’s a great idea, if only as a pub trivia asterisk.

  8. Randy Groepper says:

    Bed Bugs Chicago, Treatment of Bed Bugs Chicago, Removal of Bed Bugs Chicago Same day bed bug removal available at

  9. […] try an oh-so-rare 2013 Predictions Progress Report: World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1 Academy Award, Best […]

  10. […] strong, went down hill. World Series Champion: Cincinnati Reds Number of new Venezuelan Presidents: 1 Academy Award, Best […]

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