Any thoughts on this? I get that civilian consultants are already a major part of our foreign policy apparatus, but the fact that the Kagans were willing to work for free 18 hours a day for free scares me more than if DOD had hired them outright.
Anyway, yeah, Kagan story really, really weird. Petraeus seems particularly vulnerable to ego-massaging by civilians….
shah8:
December 19th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
The central reason I have doubts about Assad being overthrown, merely as a matter of time, is that I simply don’t see a real rebel army with a real political apparatus behind it. From the broader picture that I’ve been able to gather, Assad clearly seems to have a set strategy, internally and externally vis รก vis allies. Said strategy looks very much to be based in part on playing for time. If Assad was really tottering, I think there would be much more of an effort at a real ground campaign. More than this, if huge elements of this army was not reliable, I think we would have seen more and more serious defections in unit sizes. After all, these guys homes are being bombed, so people say.
I think there is a very good chance that examining reveal preferences would show that Assad still have strong support (as the least evil option) among urban Sunni, let alone the other religious minorities. I also think that the rebels have a major statebuilding project ahead of them during the winter. There is just no Maoist strategy if everyone thinks you’re bad news.
shah8:
December 19th, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Another important thing to watch is how well the rebels can generate more manpower via recruitment.
I mean, all the US had to do in Fallujah is to bomb it silly until will and manpower for resistance ceased to exist.
tonycpsu:
December 19th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Any thoughts on this? I get that civilian consultants are already a major part of our foreign policy apparatus, but the fact that the Kagans were willing to work for free 18 hours a day for free scares me more than if DOD had hired them outright.
Dan Nexon:
December 19th, 2012 at 10:42 am
So that’s what he looks like….
Anyway, yeah, Kagan story really, really weird. Petraeus seems particularly vulnerable to ego-massaging by civilians….
shah8:
December 19th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
The central reason I have doubts about Assad being overthrown, merely as a matter of time, is that I simply don’t see a real rebel army with a real political apparatus behind it. From the broader picture that I’ve been able to gather, Assad clearly seems to have a set strategy, internally and externally vis รก vis allies. Said strategy looks very much to be based in part on playing for time. If Assad was really tottering, I think there would be much more of an effort at a real ground campaign. More than this, if huge elements of this army was not reliable, I think we would have seen more and more serious defections in unit sizes. After all, these guys homes are being bombed, so people say.
I think there is a very good chance that examining reveal preferences would show that Assad still have strong support (as the least evil option) among urban Sunni, let alone the other religious minorities. I also think that the rebels have a major statebuilding project ahead of them during the winter. There is just no Maoist strategy if everyone thinks you’re bad news.
shah8:
December 19th, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Another important thing to watch is how well the rebels can generate more manpower via recruitment.
I mean, all the US had to do in Fallujah is to bomb it silly until will and manpower for resistance ceased to exist.
DocAmazing:
December 19th, 2012 at 8:36 pm
That hat hits the sweet spot.