The Six Year Itch? Whatever.

Not too soon, the campaign season will commence again, with a focus on the Congressional elections of 2014.  In the smattering of stories that I’ve read in the past two weeks about this upcoming festival of joy, a term that I was only vaguely aware of keeps popping up, the six year itch.  However loosely defined, six years removed from his (or, presumably someday her) first election, the incumbent President’s party is apparently doomed to suffer atypically huge defeats in these mid term House elections.  On paper, this does not inspire confidence for the Democrats come 2014.  To quote from the Politico article linked above:

The party controlling the White House during a president’s sixth year in office has lost seats in every midterm election but one since 1918, when Woodrow Wilson occupied the Oval Office. And the setbacks typically aren’t small: The average loss in these elections was 30 seats.

Incumbent Presidents tend to suffer losses in damn near every mid term election for whatever reason (see the figure below), so this sentence could be restated as “the party controlling the White House has lost seats in every midterm election but three since 1918 . . .”.  Given the relatively small sample size, this really doesn’t tell us anything.  A better way of looking at the question involves comparing the mean seat loss for the incumbent party in bog standard boring midterm years, and the hypothesized qualitatively different six-year itch years.  During such years, apparently “Anger, exhaustion and frustration tend to set in among voters as presidents approach the last leg of their final term. It happened to Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1938 when voters recoiled at his New Deal reforms. “  Of course, FDR would be re-elected in 1940, so that anger must have dissipated quickly.


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