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Here’s my map, serving as an entry into the contest. 303 EV for Obama. For the tiebreakers…on the Obama popular vote I’ll say 50.4%, Obama margin in MA I’ll say 19.7%.
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I thought all entries had to be in the post which solicited our predictions. I have no recollection what I predicted, but I will stand by it for lack of anything better to say.
I pretty much agree with your map, though I will hold out hope for Florida until it is ripped out of my hands.
I expect that once Virginia is called for Obama, that the rest of the night will be anticlimactic.
Obama 303, Romney 235
Obama PV – 50.8%
Obama Mass Margin – 16%
I made the same guess back then but I am now much more optimistic about Florida, even NC.
Silver now has Obama at 92% … that’s triple dawg dare territory
I can only hope. Because the only thing worse than a Romney presidency is the right wing crowing for the next, well, forever, about how Silver and all the polling was wrong.
Even if Romney wins it doesn’t prove Silver is WRONG. Of course, that won’t stop them from gloating.
I like XKCD’s take on this question.
Here’s my favorite line from Silver:
The most notable recent case of a candidate substantially beating his polls on Election Day came in 1980, when national surveys had Ronald Reagan only two or three points ahead of Jimmy Carter, and he won in a landslide instead. That year is not comparable to this one in many respects: the economy is much better now, there is not a major third-party candidate in the race, and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are about 50 percent rather than 35 percent for Mr. Carter. And in 1980, Mr. Reagan had late momentum following the presidential debate that year, whereas this year the momentum seems to favor Mr. Obama.
Is he trying to hint at something?
I missed the original thread, but if we can still offer entries, here’s mine. Obama popular vote 51%, margin in MA 18% even.
Comments are closed on the original article, so…
here is mine.
Popular vote: Obama 51%
Margin in MA: O by 18.5%
I know we have a EC system, but the fact Obama is in margin of error category in the popular vote (which mattered a lot to some people when Gore won it & still would have if Bush won Fl fair and square by 500 votes) is sad unless the third party vote is at least 3% or more.
Popular vote: Romney 47%
Not bad, but I live in a lucky area of a heavily Democratic county in NJ that was severely impacted by the storm. Based on anecdotal knowledge of nearby communities, I guess the the total vote will be way, way down. If this is replicated in the rest of the northeast, Obama won’t win the popular vote.
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