NFL Round Two Thread
New Orleans at San Fransisco: Really interesting game. While the Lions, while not bad, are essentially an inferior version of the Saints playing on their home turf, the 49ers are an outstanding defensive team, with great special teams. And we all know that the Saints blew it against a much worse western team on the road last year. So it’s pretty hard to turn down a home underdog. But against what is probably my better judgment, I would leave the points. Harbaugh looks like an exceptional in-game coach but it’s not like he’s going to have a big edge against Payton, I don’t like the idea of trying to keep up with Drew Brees with field goals, and I’ll believe Alex Smith can win a playoff game against a Hall of Fame QB when I see it. SAINTS -3 1/2
Denver at New England: No way around it: Tebow deserves credit, and whatever you can say about Pittsburgh’s game plan, he was extremely effective against it and that’s all you can ask. But apologists aside, the Steelers game plan was uncharacteristically foolish. It’s not exactly that you want to force Tebow to throw per se as that you want to force him to throw short and medium passes to slot receivers and tight ends. I don’t think even his staunchest critics would deny that he’s capable of throwing a decent deep ball to a wide-open wideout. As Tom Scocca says, Tebow is pretty bad but LeBeau treated him as if he wasn’t capable of making throws that many running backs and wideouts can make. The Pats defense is weak enough that Denver’s replacement level QB should be able to move the ball some this week too, but Belichick not going serve up the same steady diet of Cover 0 that Tomlin and Lebeau did; his shitty cover people are going to get help against Demaryius Thomas, and this is going to make it harder for Tebow to avoid sacks and turnovers. (The combination of fifth-stringers and converted receivers in the Pats secondary is almost a perverse advantage; Belichick won’t have any illusions about the quality of his personnel, while for reasons that are not obvious Tomlin and LeBeau seem to think that Ike Taylor is good.) The Bronocs will probably have a better game as a result, but if you need to have Willis McGahee with upwards of 300 carries on the odometer to offset Tom Brady…good luck with that. Paul will be happy when I’m proven wrong again, but I see a blowout. PATRIOTS – 13 1/2.
Houston at Baltimore. If Schaub were healthy, I think this would be a really nice 3 point upset pick; the Texans have gone from perennial underachiever to solid across the board. But I can’t pick a very green, not very talented rookie against the league’s best defense on the road. RAVENS -7 1/2
New York at the Thawed Tundra of Green Bay: The Giants have become a popular upset pick, and I can see it — pass rush + good QB with a lot of weapons is your best shot against the Packers. On the other hand, on the way to a season that looked like it would be outstanding. Eli laid enough eggs in the last third of the season to settle in with the Ryans and Staffords in the very good-not-great class. So people may be overrating their chances a little — but given their real chance to win it’s hard to leave more than a TD on the table. Very gingerly, GIANTS + 7 1/2.
UPDATE: There is a typo in the post above. What it should have read is “I have always loved Alex Smith. There’s nobody you’d rather have the ball with the game on the line. He just. wins. football. games.” I regret the error.
UPDATE THE SECOND: “Tom Brady now has more TD passes to tight ends (4) than Tim Tebow has completions (still 3).”
I’m just glad the damned week is over. Boston sports radio was unlistenable this week. All Tebow all the time. FSM, please let him go back to circumsising Catholics, or get struck by by lightning, or something…
If there is a god then abortion clinic security camera footage of Tebow badgering a girlfriend to go through with an abortion will hit the internet any day now. Anything less and we’re in for another season of all Tebow, all the time.
Unfortunately in this case, there is no god.
On the contrary, it seems like irrefutable proof of the existence of Loki.
or Coyote
Look on the plus side:
Any pass Tebow throws against New England is just as likely to end up in Merry Old England as it does in a Denver receivers hands in Gillette Stadium.
Pittsburgh treated him like he was that handless returning WWII veteran, who once was a QB in HS, in “The Best Years of Our Lives,” and they basically beat themselves.
Belichick won’t make the same mistake.
The boy ain’t even good, maybe even bad – but he ain’t as bad as the Steelers made him out to be! He’s not a male Christian version of the Venus de Milo who can run. He IS just as white, though…
A commentator over at the Sports Guy noted some statistics that indicates there may have been a larger force at work last week:
I don’t actually think God cares about football games — but if I did I might be worried.
It gets even freakier. Tebow has a secretary named Lincoln, and Lincoln had a secretary named Tebow. And both had VPs named Johnson!
Oh my god! Really?
Tebow had better stay away from any Ford Theatres in Dallas, TX, then.
or visiting any of his American cousins
Apart from the pick, Mr. Roethlisberger, how was the play?
I thought the Niners would be lucky to win three games this season. I also once declared that Bill Walsh was making a mistake benching Steve DeBerg and starting Joe Montana, but that’s another story.
But I’ll be shocked if they beat the Saints. Indeed, I’ll be surprised if the Saints don’t pound them. If I were a betting man, I’d take the 3 1/2 points in a second.
If the Tebow-led Broncos defeat New England, I promise to join his church.
Ravens over the hard luck Texans, and the Pack as usual this year. Still, they did lose to KC, and not all that long ago, didn’t they?
Even a really crappy playoff team has a 10%-15% chance of winning against the best of teams, and New England, while very good, isn’t quite the best of teams. The Broncos are probably somewhere between 15% and 20% to win. People routinely underestimate the chances of upsets in football mismatches.
I don’t think that’s a promise you want to make.
“Even a really crappy playoff team has a 10%-15% chance of winning against the best of teams, and New England, while very good, isn’t quite the best of teams. The Broncos are probably somewhere between 15% and 20% to win. People routinely underestimate the chances of upsets in football mismatches.”
True enough, but New England’s defense, while bad overall, is good at stopping the things a Tebow offense can do. Denver’s best chance is a first half Brady knee injury, absent that they’re in real trouble.
As for the rest of the games, Baltimore and Green Bay have blowout written all over them. The only thing the Giants are consistently good at is rushing the passer, and Rodgers is even more deadly when he’s out of the pocket than when he’s in it. Baltimore’s defense against, as Lemieux said, “a very green, not very talented rookie”? Please. Flacco can get them the 9 points they’ll need. Saints-Niners is likely the best game, but a two score Saints lead to open the second half while Alex Smith implodes is easy to imagine.
In short, stranger things have happened, but taking the points across the board looks good for at least 3-1 on the weekend.
“True enough, but New England’s defense, while bad overall, is good at stopping the things a Tebow offense can do. Denver’s best chance is a first half Brady knee injury, absent that they’re in real trouble.”
Calling the New England Defense good at anything is a stretch. At least by footballousiders’ numbers, the only thing they’re good at is stopping running backs in the passing game, which is not exactly a concern against Denver. However I’m also confident that New England won’t have a defensive game plan drawn up by drunken squirrels.
Sure, Denver’s best shot is an early Brady injury, but that’s already accounted for. There’s a 50/50 chance of a blowout for NE, but if it’s not a blowout all it takes for Denver to win is a lucky bounce or two going Denver’s way. Even Brady sometimes gets strip sacked deep in his own end, and who knows when Denver might return a kick all the way. There’s a lot of luck in football, and a small sample size of plays in any game.
I checked the money lines on a Denver bet, BTW, and Denver +500-525 is where they mostly are.
The Patriots have devised a diabolical 6-6-6 defense for this specific game, a strategy which disguises all earthly manifestations and secondary alignments in such a fashion that barely covered enticements will suddenly transform into chastity belt lockdowns. Tebow will thus waste all of his Christian shrewdness on fruitless options until he is destroyed by the howling whore of Turnover.
I still like Denver plus the points.
To be honest, when I heard the 49ers won, I danced around the living room singing Chelsea Dagger.
A gaint is the area between the grundle and the taint.
C’mon guy, let’s do a quick proofread before we post.
No kidding, there are three or four typos…
NO @ SF: I agree with everything Scott says. I’d add that the weather is forecast to be cool, calm and sunny – i.e., more like playing in the Dome than at Candlestick.
DEN @ NE: The Steelers were so banged up that I’m not sure they could have won even with better coaching. I’m not crazy about giving up 13.5, though, not with the patched up NE secondary. I say Denver beats the spread but loses the game.
HOU @ BAL: It may come down to which Joe Flacco shows up, but he plays decent at home, so I have to go with the Ravens. Also, the Texans are overachievers in a soft division.
NYG @ GB: GB might be a touchdown better, but probably no better, so if I can get NYG +7.5 I’m happy.
I’m going to care about the playoffs so much less once Tebow is eliminated. The Eagles got screwed by some combination of Reidian idiocy and bad luck in point distribution, and once the Pittsburgh serial rapist has been eliminated, I don’t really care about any of the remaining teams or games.
And I don’t like football enough to stay interested without some sort of hook. The Tebow hysteria keeps me watching. I don’t care what this says about religion in America (nothing important) or football stat analysis (can you really say fuck-all with an n of 15 anyway?), I just want to be entertained.
I agree with your assessment of Eli: Not in the elite class, largely because of his continued tendency to throw off his back foot into coverage, leading to way too many interceptions. I know what I’m about to say is pretty trite, but I think it is especially true given the teams involved: if the Giants win the turnover battle, they likely win the game; if they finish even or behind in turnovers, they definitely lose. They’re only chance in this game for Eli to not throw interceptions and for their pass rush to force a couple of turnovers.
I agree with all of your picks, which makes me nervous that the Giants will lose (big) and Tebow will win. (Of all the picks, that’s actually the one I’m most skeptical of: I don’t think that the Broncos will win, but the defense could easily play a good enough game to keep it close.
This doesn’t really match what I’ve seen of Eli this year; most of their losses have had a lot to do with the defense and the running game (if you call that a running game). Eli had bad games against Philadelphia and Washington, but he’s been by far the most consistent part of the team. (The commenter above who says their pass rush is the only consistent part clearly is just thinking of the last few weeks.)
Eli was also terrible against the Jets.
When Mark Sanchez drops back 64 times in opposition you can afford some horrible play from your own quarterback. While there were lots of questions about Schottenheimer anyway, that game sealed his fate.
Yeah, Eli had a few stinkers this season. Even in those games, though, he made some great plays, but also some really poor ones. (He wasn’t helped by the number of times his receivers deflected the ball right to the defenders, though, but a lot of his Ints. were his own fault.)
<blockquote slot receivers to slot receivers.
Did you just call Tim Tebow a slot receiver?
Yeah, Dick LeBeau totally underestimated Tebow. He schemed as if he was a shitty quarterback. An atrocious one. One who shouldn’t even be playing the position in the NFL. I don’t know what’s wrong with that guy.
Anyway, the Patriots should win this, because while Tim Tebow is clutch, Tom Brady is, like, clutch.
You know?
Clutch.
For real this time: Tebow may well have a good game, but Brady is going to devour Denver’s defense. The Broncos just aren’t built to put up the kind of numbers needed to keep up when the Pats’ offense is rolling.
Denver pretty much took Gronkowski and Welker out of the game in the regular season, and what more could you ask a defense to do, but it just didn’t matter. Unless the Patriots come out and lay a post-bye-week egg again, it’s going to take an elite defense to even keep them in check. Denver’s D, while good, wasn’t elite even when they were playing at their best.
OMG I’m agreeing with JFL.
I need some drugs and a stiff shot of Maker’s Mark.
that’s probably true whether you agree with Joe or not
+1.
The Passion of the Tebow will be happening tonight in Foxboro.
I look forward to the inevitable follow up post.
I’m actually with this statement if by that you mean that he’s going to get stripped, beaten, abandoned, and hung out to dry.
I thought it meant Tebow was going to get some old guy (like maybe Elway) to help him carry his burden
My understanding is that if Tebow wins, the Vatican chimney is prepared to release white smoke.
Then, Pope Ratfaceinger will be forced to step down to make way for Pope Timothy – and he will be made to wash Pope Tim’s Holy Cleats, and to put upon his head a mitre with the Denver Bronco logo on it.
And it shalleth be madeth of plasticeth, with a guardeth for the face.
And a new Benedictus is being written just in case.
Amen.
You commie America-haters crack me up w/ your transparent attempts to appear like Real Americans.
Admit it, you’d all rather be watching that stupid “no hands” game all the furriners like!
Tebow would be great at that game – no arm required either!
Chicharito already has the praying covered in the EPL.
Kieran Richardson too
The Giants have a decent shot – at least a puncher’s chance.
GB has been off for a couple of weeks, their QB for three. I will say, though, that he is the best, most accurate QB I think I’ve ever seen – and he can run effectively, too! There’s not a pass he CAN’T make. Eli’s the Giants “The Man,” but Aaron Rodgers is better.
And the Jints could’t run all year until last week against the Falcons. But even if they can, they’re not designed to run like the ’07 team. They’re a big-play offense, and those don’t always do well in big games. And GB’s defense has been napping all season, and they might very well return to last years form when they were pretty good.
The GB O-line is hurt, but healthier than in the past few weeks.
And if the Giants can get a good consistent pass-rush on him, then they might, MIGHT, be able to do to him what they did to Brady in the SB.
I still think the Packers will win.
And as a Giants fan, and a Liberal, I never mind if the Pack win, unless they beat us.
Think about their name.
They’re basically a team named after working class workers, AND they’re the only team not owned by some rich asshole or some hideous soul-killing corporation.
My pick: Take the Jints and the points.
Denver and Tebow are going down. NE has too much offense, and they won’t make the same mistakes as the Steelers when it comes to St. Timmy of the Rockies.
My pick: NE and the points.
SF is a year away. But, having said that, their defense and special teams give them a chance.
My pick: Take the Saints and give the points.
And if the Texans had an old Y. A. Tittle instead of a young T.J. Yates, then I think might have a real good chance. But Flacco is going to be looked at likeSanchez or Ryan, a disappointment, if he doesn’t win this week, so there’s a ton of pressure on him.
My pick: Take the Texans and the points.
Next week:
Pats against the Ravens.
Packers hosting the Saints.
GO JINTS!!!
Yep, that’s why whilst I am a seahawks fan for my sins (notably the sins of the father in siring me in Seattle), the second place in my heart belongs to green bay.
Maybe Alex Smith is the new Tebow.
JzB
Oh, yeah!
That Saints pick looks to be in a bit of trouble . . . 14-0, S.F. so far, and a 49er fumble recovery on the ensuing kickoff . . .
I think that SF is sunk if they ever let NO ahead of them, but they look good so far.
At most a three pont lead at half. WHO DAT
Wrong, wrong. SF had two comebacks in them. Good game, though.
Good game? Unbelievably fucking great game. The Smith run was a spectacular call and deserved to be the winner. So happy to see Alex come through big. He’s put up with so much shit during all the coaching changes. His throws to Davis were of the highest skill.
Gotta agree that calling that a “good game” is a spectacular understatement. If San Francisco goes on to win the Super Bowl they’ll be replaying this game on the NFL network a couple of times a week forever.
The ‘aints were incredibly sloppy coming out of the gate, with four turnovers in the first half, two of which gave the ball to SF about 15 yards and 5 yards away from the end zone. And SF was still able to get only 17 points for the half. Granted, it was a close and interesting game throughout, and the last five minutes kicked it up a notch, it just took awhile to get there.
As a Steeler fan, last week was horrendous. Though not altogether surprising given the amount of injuries. But I truly appreciate the hearty laugh that “Cover 0″ afforded me. Nice.
i think LeBeau (given his history) needs a CAT scan after that game. Let’s leave open the ONLY option that the guy can possibly use to beat us (long ball.) Ugh.
“Cover 0″ is a great line and it went straight into my vocabulary.
Apparently, it is actually a legit straight-up football term.
Then again, I found it on Wikipedia. So.
Cover 0 just means no free safety. Usually man-to-man with a 6-man rush. Cover 1 is old school “man free.” Cover 2 means two safeties deep with no man responsibility. And so on.
“Cover 0″ just isn’t a term that you hear everyday. Which I guess is just because Tim Tebow is such a unique quarterback.
They often call it “zero coverage.”
The redskins do a lot of cover zero as well.
There are probably only two teams that do it consistently, Baltimore and Pittsburgh which might have something to do with their safeties (Palomalu and Reed).
The Saints are healthier this year than they were at the same point last year, though.
The Niners seem to be nursing this lead so far and that’s been their specialty, so we’ll see. I can’t see Brees losing to Smith, either, but stranger things, etc.
What a game! Go Niners!
“There is a typo in the post above. What it should have read is “I have always loved Alex Smith. There’s nobody you’d rather have the ball with the game on the line. He just. wins. football. games.” I regret the error.”
Like I say, Mitt Romney sweats every time you declare him inevitable…
Yes! Yes!! YES!!!
Go Niners!!!
fumble!!
i’m sure smith is the most surprised fellow in sf right now. he got it done, though. who knew?
The Broncos keep getting these three-and-outs and 5+yard sacks because Belichick stole their signals the first time they played, right?
Belichick is using prayer jammers, not sure what NFL rules say about that- they’re definitely legal in MA though.
My name for him is “Darth Belichick” (inspired by the way he wears his hood on the sidelines).
Young Tebow does not know the power of the Dark Side.
I do love how the announcers refuse to criticize Tebow on any play. Like on the option when he pitched way too early before the LB committed it was all about how great the Pats D was playing
The Patriots radio feed is kind of awful, but they’re merciless on Tebow.
It’s because Focus on the Patriarchy bought ad time.
My favorite was when Tebow missed a wide-open Thomas on a simple out for what should have been an easy first down. Phil Simms blamed it on Denver not throwing more often, which strikes me a real chicken-and-egg question. Fox would presumably call pass plays at least a little more often if his quarterback could be trusted to make basic throws.
Second place was Jim Nantz’s anti-anti-Tebow scolding near the end of the game.
I don’t know what to think. Eight days ago the people on ESPN who obviously know more about football than those of us in the hinterlands were ready to bench His Holiness. Then he (sorry, He) unexpectedly plays a good game and it’s a collective 180. Oh well, everything happens for a reason.
The Patriots seem to be using strange defensive schemes that involve covering the other team’s top wideouts. Odd.
And edge containment. And three defensive tackles eating up the middle of the field. It’s almost like they scouted the other team. Who does that?
Belichek must have been videotaping practices again.
Oh, yeah? Do they use someone of Ike Taylor’s skill? I think not.
Ike Taylor is so good he can cover three people standing still!
He’s no Brian Boitano.
Whichever CBS talk heading that said at halftime [paraphrasing] Brady is fucking sick and tired of hearing about fucking football jeebus, I think was exactly right.
Praise be to Allah
So is there a chance that the Pats end up with exactly 666 yards of total offense?
No chance. There is a chance that Tebow ends with a 66.6bar incompletion percentage.
I believe he was 9 for 26, a .654 incompletion avg. Purdy darn close.
Jesus stopped his coach from calling one more pass play in the end game.
[...] == "undefined"){ addthis_share = [];}Saturday’s game is a good lesson in making predictions based on intuition. The numbers suggest that Alex Smith has become a very serviceable QB, and [...]
Singletary is a terrible head coach, but he’s the one who turned Vernon Davis from a perpetual malcontent into a team player. And now, when Davis is overcome with emotion, he looks for a hug from his new coach. Big awwww moment.
Shows the value of teaching as well as coaching. Harbaugh was a college professor. I think that is a skill that is undervalued in both professional and semi-pro (collegiate sports). Over emphasis on athletic ability without teaching guys how to play and developing them physically and emotionally. What he did at Stanford was to develop talent into NFL level players physically. His teams at the end were as physical and fast as any in the country. What he has done in SF teach them how to play. The bulk of this team is from the Nolan/Singletary era. The NFL system assures that every team will have talent, it’s what you do with it. That why I chuckle at the coaching retreads. Let’s get a name or hire guys who have shown they can’t do it.
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