Arms Sales to Lebanon

When I was in Israel a few years ago, the security folks I was introduced to were uniformly of the opinion that trying to increase the military capacity of the Lebanese state was a waste of time. The Lebanese Army would never have the will or the capability to fight Hezbollah, no matter the degree of arms and security assistance, and any advanced weapons were as likely as not to end up in Hezbollah’s arsenal. While these were hardly unbiased observers, it’s not clear to me that the argument is wrong. The unspoken assumption behind US security assistance seems to be that if we try hard enough, someday the Lebanese government will be strong enough to restart a horribly bloody civil war against Hezbollah. It seems to me that both the likelihood and the desirability of such an outcome are in deep doubt.

I’m also genuinely untouched by the “But Lebanon might turn to Syria or Iran!” part of the argument. A substantial portion of the Lebanese population already thinks of Syria and Iran as major patrons. Given the extent of division in Lebanese society, it would be really… surprising to see all of the major players unite around a pro-Iran position.