How Will the Supremes Vote on ACA?
By Having discussed the limitations of positivist political science, I attempt to figure it out using my highly sophisticated “educated guess” method. Although it’s a “sovereign immunity” case and not a commerce clause case, I think that Hibbs is a better guide to Scalia’s vote than Raich. Upholding a law that’s about federal hippie-punching is one thing. Actual progressive legislation is another, and of course to conservatives the individual mandate might be even more oppressive tyranny than the Family and Medical Leave Act. Even so, my gut says that Kennedy won’t go along, at least fully. As long as he doesn’t vote to strike the whole act, I can live with it.