Home / Robert Farley / Explaining Variance

Explaining Variance

/
/
/
1199 Views

Ok, so let’s assume that Mubarak takes the easy way out and heads for healthier climes.  What explains the difference between the failure of the Green Revolution and the success of the Egyptian?  Some potential hypotheses:

  1. Ahmadinejad, whether or not (or by how much) he adjusted the election results, still had greater popular support than Mubarak.  A larger percentage of the population was either tolerant or enthusiastic about his rule.
  2. The existence of the Revolutionary Guard provide the Iranian state with a parallel security apparatus to the Army.  While the loyalty of the latter might have wavered, the loyalty of the former meant that any further revolutionary effort would have been extremely bloody.
  3. The Iranian state provides more avenues for democratic participation than the Egyptian, thus blunting the force of the protests.
  4. The ambivalently pro-transition position of the US in both cases resulted in different implications.  In Iran, the regime could use tepid US support of the Green Movement to play the patriotism card.  In Egypt, anti-Americanism wasn’t an option for Mubarak, especially as it became clear that the US wasn’t excited about the possibility of his ouster.

Other thoughts?

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
This div height required for enabling the sticky sidebar
Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views : Ad Clicks : Ad Views :