Belated 2010 NL Preview
East: 1. Phi 2. Atl 3. Fla 4. NYM 5. Was I suppose on some level the Phillies are more vulnerable than they might seem; they feel like a great team and have the core of one, but this core has yet to win more than 93 games in the weak lead. But you have to think that with Halladay this could be the strongest version yet, and the bullpen has to get better. There’s been something naggingly unfinished about the Braves since Ted Turner left, this year reflected in the ridiculous Vazquez trade (part of the “let’s play Kansas City As!” game that started with Gillick donating Abreu to the Yankee cause.) But the team is better than its record the last two years reflect, and if Glaus is healthy except for Melky the lineup is decent, and they have the best pitching depth in the division. If the Phils have bad luck with injuries, the Braves could push them, and should compete for the wild card. Speaking of unfinished, the Marlins aren’t going to patch their holes and won’t win the division, but have enough talent to be vaguely competitive. One can see a superficial case for Mets optimism; there’s some impressive core talent, and the team went to the wire in ’07 and ’08. The first obvious problem, though, is that except Bay every one of the Mets’ front-line players is coming off an off year, an injury, or both; as a group they’ll be better than last year but not better enough. The second problem that there’s nothing behind it on offense — the 2B has no power, the RF can’t get on base, the C is a poor-man’s version of the RF, and the 1B is a joke. And then there’s the pitching — beyond Santana not only was the rotation lousy, but although they’re mostly young they had the peripherals of a 37 year-old junkballer on his last legs (and Perez, the pitcher with the highest upside, was especially gruesome.) A declining K-Rod won’t get much more support, either. That’s not a contending team. The Nationals continue to be a tribute to the aftereffects of syndicate ownership.
1. STL 2. MIL 3. CIN 4. CHI 5. HOU 6. PIT There’s no way around it — having the best player in baseball is a major edge in a thin division, and having a manager and pitching coach who can get ace performance out of journeyman starters ditto. Outside the 3-4 slots the offense isn’t very good, but they should win the division anyway. I figure one of the not untalented but highly flawed Brewers, Reds, and Cubs will make things interesting, but my suggestion that it will be Milwaukee is a pure guess. The Pirates are terrible but at least are heading in the right direction, while the Astros may be a little better now but it’s not obvious when their next decent team is going to emerge.
1. COL 2. LA (*) 3. SF 4. ARI 5. SD The staff that the Rockies have put together in that park is pretty remarkable; I see this as the year when they’re finally good wire-to-wire, although one really good power hitter in the corners would make that more certain. The next three teams are all potential contenders if things break right; my preference for the OK-both-ways Dodgers over the all-defense Giants is marginal, although I remain less impressed with the DBacks than most sabermetric types. The Padres are the Nationals with one really good 1B added.
Can’t really argue with your picks, Scott. I will say that having seen Jason Heyward live over the weekend … the kid is really, really good. But then so are the Phils.
My own homer pick is the Giants to win the West. And let me tell you, they have a freaky starting lineup, pun intended, and maybe the best bullpen in baseball. I guess pitching is ‘defense’, but the traditional use of that term doesn’t quite apply to the Gigantes … their leather ain’t great. And they absolutely need one more bat, two would be better.
Meanwhile, I notice that you devote three times the copy to your NL East preview than you lay out for the other divisions. East Coast bias much?
Also, Houston is worse than Pittsburgh. The ‘Stros are Detroit-in-2002 level bad. (Nobody is Detroit-in-2003 level bad.)
I just don’t see this at all. Obviously,over the long-term the outlook for the ‘Stros is very dire — worse that the Bucs — but one reason for this is that they spend money on mediocre players and refuse to trade their decent expensive veterans. But these things will prevent them from completely bottoming out in the short-term. Berkman-Lee-Pence is certainly better than the Pirates’ offensive core, Oswalt and Rodriguez would certainly be the 1-2 starters for the Bucs. Other than CF. where does Pittsburgh make up for these edges? The Astros aren’t good, and they’re about to get a lot worse, but they’re not a 110 loss team in that division.
You’re assuming Berkman and Oswalt are healthy and productive. Berkman hasn’t even seen the field yet, for instance. The Pirates also have a lot more depth (all of it mediocre at best, but they have a ton of 5th starter candidates to throw out there, while the ‘stros can’t afford a single pitching loss.) I’d also take the Pirates at 2b and C over Houston.
Also, Pittsburgh figures to get 4 months of Pedro Alvarez, who may match Heyward. 3 HR in his first 2 games at AAA, after just a month at AA last year.
That said, the pitching is looking weak at the moment, regardless of 5th starter options.
I’m not sold on the Dodgers this year and think they’ll struggle to finish about .500. Maybe I’m making too much of the back end of the pitching staff, but I suspect that any team with both Ortizes and the wrong Weaver can’t be very good. I’d suspect that Atl wins the wild card, maybe the Giants if they pick up a bat in trade early enough.
Other than that, I agree with Aristophanes: this is the year the Pirates get out of the cellar, not because they’re good but because the Astros are that bad. I also don’t think the Reds are in the same class as the Cubs and Brewers, but that’s a nitpick.