Turnout

Steve Conn has some interesting observations on the race in Ohio, where Democratic turnout may have proven less of a factor in the race than the degree to which Republicans simply stayed home. In the end, Obama received fewer about 8000 votes more than Kerry had earned in 2004 — but whereas Kerry lost by 110,000 votes four years ago, Obama wounding up carrying the state by 200,000.

I mention this only because there’s been a lot of speculation over the past two days about the strangely low turnout in Alaska, where it so far appears that about 8000 fewer votes were cast this time around than 2004. I wouldn’t have expected that sort of fall-off going into election day, but I’m not nearly as surprised as Shannyn Moore, who seems pretty well convinced the election was stolen on behalf of Stevens and Young.

For starters, I think too much can be made of the expectation that Alaskans would show up in droves to vote for Palin as VP. While a good many people here implausibly regarded her as a decent candidate for the office, it’s important not to forget how unpopular John McCain was in this state. He finished fourth in the February caucuses, and I would imagine that there were a good many Republican voters who just stayed away on Tuesday, either because they just didn’t care for the guy and/or because a McCain victory in Alaska was already inevitable — as was a McCain defeat nationally. I’m of course just guessing here, but I can imagine that any of those factors might help to explain some of the low numbers.

I’m also not necessarily shocked by the discrepancy between the numbers of Obama and Kerry voters (80K and 111K, respectively). For as excited as Democrats were for this year’s campaign, it’s easy to forget how eager we all were to cast a vote against Bush in 2004. And I suspect there are plenty of Obama supporters who spent the day making phone calls to swing state voters whil assuming — incorrectly, it turns out — that Begich and Berkowitz would mop the floors with Stevens and Young. There are plenty of people, self included, who couldn’t imagine that enough people would vote for these dopes to make the race close. And while I’m not beyond suspecting foul play, I think the more likely scenario is that a surprising number of Alaskans are simply out of their goddamned minds.