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Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans: Summary Update for Fiscal Year 2005

In its cost-risk projections, CBO assumes that activities in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere could cost as much as $56 billion in 2005. That figure rests on the assumption that force levels in Iraq and Afghanistan will remain at their current levels throughout fiscal year 2005–an assumption consistent with CBO’s understanding of DoD’s current plans for both operations.

Over the long term, CBO projects that the cost risk associated with those (or similar) operations could amount to about $21 billion annually. That estimate is based on the assumption that between 2006 and 2009, U.S. force levels in Iraq decline to about 50,000 military personnel, operations in Afghanistan decrease to a level comparable to the peacekeeping missions in Bosnia and Kosovo, and Operation Noble Eagle slowly diminishes. Of course, those specific assumptions are unlikely to hold true through 2022. The $21 billion estimate is simply a proxy for the budgetary impact of continued engagement by the U.S. military in such operations. If U.S. foreign policy shifted in a way that increased or decreased the nation’s military presence overseas, costs would change accordingly.

Current Iraq force level: ~140000
Current Afghanistan force level: ~30000
Estimated Iraq cost/year: ~$140 billion
Estimated Afghanistan cost/year: ~$48 billion

But remember; just another dozen or so years of this, and it will all have been worth it.

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