Pessimism

I think there’s a lot of truth to what Matt says here. All I would add is that in the House, where the Democrats have the best shot, the structural advantages of incumbents are particularly formidable, and a slight downtick in the general climate could create all kinds of problems. And in the Senate, where essentially everything has to break right the GOP’s huge money advantage is particularly important; it would be hard to imagine the Republicans not able to save at least one of Allen and Corker.

The slightly more optimistic look is that taking the House and picking up seats in the Senate–particularly given the distribution of seats that was up this year–would be a major improvement, and that still seems the most likely outcome. And in the Senate, every pickup matters a lot if even if you don’t win, especially for threatening filibusters.

The reverse-hedge point is true too, of course, but I still say Mets in 6 with Glavine now starting on full rest…

…James Joyner says that “neither side has any real reason to be confident at this point.” Seems about right.