Horse Race
By A summary of recent Senate polls:
* Two Republican incumbents in very serious trouble, Santorum and DeWine.
* One Republican incumbent trailing his challenger, Chafee.
* Three Republican incumbents virtually tied with their challengers, Allen, Burns and Talent.
* One Democratic incumbent tied with his challenger, Menendez.
* One Democratic incumbent with a real lead, Cantwell.
* One Republican open seat with a tie, Tennessee.
Fairly promising. PA, WA, and OH are over, and I also think we’ll hold Joisey and take RI and MT. But of the three conservative states that are up for grabs, my gut says we’ll only get one of the three–I think McCaskill will win, but I also see Allen holding on and Corker winning. (At a weekend meeting of political junkies, a lot of people thought I was underrating Ford’s chances, but I’d still put a sawbuck or two on Corker.) So I think we’ll get close but not quite over the top–51-49 GOP [actually, 50-49-1, assuming Lieberman wins, as noted in comments.]
…and what Taylor and Ezra said. It’s not like Meehan is running for president, or Kerry should be running for president. And as for CD’s friend…this is ridiculous. To be clear, a liberal Democratic Senator is not an option in Tennessee. It’s Ford, or it’s a wingnut Republican. To not want money to be given to a close campaign because a Democrat is more conservative than you’d like a Democrat in Illinois to be…I’m sure her friend is smart, but he or she ain’t smart about politics.