McCain is Not Unbeatable

I agree with Kevin Drum; the proposition that John McCain can’t be beaten in 2008 is indefensible on its face. I remain unconvinced that McCain will be able to fight his way through the Republican primary, but even if he does, I see no call whatsoever to declare him invincible. Candidates who appear invincible two years before the primary season starts almost always lose their luster, and McCain has already begun to make the compromises, necessary to winning the Republican primary, that will undercut his attractiveness across the political spectrum.

Ezra, who still believes in McCain’s invincibility, undercuts his position by noting:

Remember that [Clinton] didn’t enter the 1988 race because he worried that the Reagan revolution hadn’t yet run its course. And remember, too, that his 1992 campaign was supposed to do nothing more than build his name recognition for 1996, when he could capitalize on Cuomo’s inevitable loss with the “New Democrat” schtick. That Cuomo pulled out and a recession destroyed Bush changed the playing field.

This should serve to remind us that what is taken for granted as political reality in 2006 is likely to expire by 2008. As late as early 1992, George Bush was understood to be an invincible candidate for re-election. Recall also that in 1995 and 1996 the punditocracy was beside itself noting the high bipartisan approval ratings of Bob Dole, and it was not uncommon to hear talk that he would prove unbeatable in the general election. Then he got crushed. I think that there’s more similarity between Dole and McCain than most people are ready to note; McCain has certainly portrayed himself as more of a maverick, but Dole was thought to be a relatively moderate Republican with good bipartisan cred and was possessed of a wicked wit that was supposed to make the media fall in love with him. Also, conservative Republicans seem to loathe Dole and McCain equally, and McCain’s clumsy efforts to pander to the right are deeply reminiscent of Dole’s equally pathetic efforts to mollify the right in 1996.

So, no, I’m far from prepared to write off 2008 as the Year of McCain.