Brief WBC Scenario…

So, my understanding of the US pool. Assuming that the US beats South Africa…

If Canada beats Mexico, US and Canada go.

If Mexico beats Canada, then there’ll be a 2-1/2-1/2-1 tie. Tiebreaker is runs given up; Canada has thus far given up 14, the US 10, and Mexico 6. I have to assume that the US will give up less than four runs to South Africa. If Mexico wins, then Canada is out, because Canada cannot make up the run differential.

So, for all intents and purposes, the winner of the Mexico-Canada game will join the US in advancing. The only thing that could change this is if the US loses to South Africa, or gives up a number of runs to South Africa=5+Mexican runs in the Mexico-Canada game.