The Hall of Fame and East Coast Bias

I’m not sure that I agree with Norbizness’ claim that this list (1, 2) reflects East Coast Bias really holds water. While this has certainly historically been the case (although most of the marginal new York players, like Kelly, Rizutto, and Jackson were because of the Veteran’s Committee, not the sportswriters) I don’t really see it on the list. The only dubious East Coast selection is Wright (and obviously it’s silly to project a second-year player to the HOF), and since he also lists the distinctly non-East Coast Santana and Mauer it’s not really plausible to chalk this up to bias. Schoenfeld (who, BTW, I think is Seattle-based) gets Jeter right; not nearly the player Tim McCarver thinks he is, but he’ll obviously go. Norbizness’ direct claim is that Rivera will make it instead of Hoffman because “he’s a Yankee”. I yield to nobody in my hatred on the Yankees, but come on. Since his rookie season, Rivera’s ERA+ (a park-adjusted average ERA is 100) have been 242, 235, 234, 245, 178, 191, 160, 265, and 231, and he’ll post another 200+ this year. So, in other words, his worst season as a closer is 10 points better than Hoffmann’s career average. And then, he’s thrown 108 post-season innings with a 0.75 ERA and a 85/14 K/W ratio. Hoffman is very good, but he’s no better than guys like Henke and Wetteland, who nobody thinks are Hall of Famers. Rivera is on a whole different planet from these guys, as any Yankee-hater has been made all-too-painfully aware. He’s the best closer ever–it’s not even close–and if that’s not a Hall of Famer I’m not sure what is.

The other interesting question here is Ichiro. While I agree that he won’t (and shouldn’t) get full credit for his career in Japan, I think if he stays healthy he will go. One amazing thing about him is that, based only on his 4 major league seasons, Bill James’ HOF monitor already projects him as having Hall of Fame credentials. This doesn’t mean he would actually be voted in if he retired today, of course; indeed, he couldn’t be. But he’s the kind of player who ages well–if he plays in the majors until he’s 40, he’ll be a clear selection. His odds are good.