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Roberts Post-Mortem

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In response to the discussion thread in the post below, a couple points:

  • I continue to believe that any justice Bush could plausibly nominate–which obviously includes Roberts–should be filibustered, simply because this would force the use of the nuclear option, which would destroy the filibuster in the long term, which would obviously be good for progressive politics on in the long-term. In addition, I would like to note that the next person who can offer evidence that being labeled “obstructionist” has any significant political effects will be the first. Yes, Virginia, Joe Klein and other Beltway hacks do not, in fact, reflect the concerns of ordinary voters.
  • Having said that, Norbizness is of course correct–the chances of any filibuster being mounted, let alone succeeding, are zilch (barring some completely unforeseen revelation.) Analogies to Bolton don’t wash. Bolton was an extremely odious person with an extensive history of disgruntled employees and a paper trial of wingnutty comments, and the administration is not nearly as committed to him as to a Supreme Court nominee. Roberts is telegenic and a very effective advocate with an ambiguous history.
  • I actually don’t think it’s a mortal lock that Roberts will vote to overturn Roe, and I’m sure that it’s not a dealbreaker for Bush–as Matt says, let’s not forget where the power in the GOP lies. It’s important to Bush to have someone that his wingnut base can plausibly think will overturn Roe, but I’m sure that Bush could give a rat’s ass whether he actually does or not (and Rove surely understands that it’s better for the Republican Party to have Roe emaciated rather than overturned outright.) It does matter to Bush and the GOP’s funders that the nominee be extremely pro-business and pro-“states’ rights,” and on those fronts Roberts’ record is unambiguous. I think Roberts will certainly be a fifth vote to chip away at abortion rights at the margin. But whether he will vote to overturn Roe in the unlikely event the Court tries it in the short term, I don’t know. He certainly might, but I don’t think it can be inferred from the fact that Bush selected him.
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